Value Betting on Draws: an Alternative Asset Class

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Photo by Ryan McGuire on Pixabay

Who likes to bet on a football match hoping nothing happens?

Who likes to cheer on a boring 0–0?

Betting on draws is not exciting for amateur bettors.

They love to bet on winners.

Amateur Bettors

Most of them are recreational punters who love to pick winners.

They want to share success with friends and even better if the winner is the team they support.

It is also a matter of ego to say: I was right!

It is not about betting on the winner only as a favourite.
Even the underdog high odds are attractive because of the big reward.

Those are all choices far from the logic of a value bet made to get a profit. …

Should I stay or Should I go? Should I Back or Lay the Draw?

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After 1000 games played in the best football leagues, you would have returned a good profit.

In the new scenario of Football behind closed doors, successful betting could be simpler than you think.

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In these times of Football games behind closed doors, there is an interesting trend going on: Betting on Draws is extraordinarily profitable.

I mean, right on all the Draws.

The first signs of the current trend appeared with the return of the Bundesliga behind closed doors, as I reported a dozen days ago.

The same is happening in the other leagues that have just restarted behind closed doors, so if we had wagered a fixed stake on the Draws of the best European Leagues matches, we would have obtained a Yield of 22.24% after 254 Bets.

If you want to thrive with your system, you must first survive with your bankroll

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Photo by Mohamed Hassan on Pixabay

No matter how winning your value betting system is if you do not have a proper risk-taking plan for the investment.

Along the way, there will be unavoidable losing runs. Those losing runs already happened in the past despite the positive returns of a system.

However, bad runs are nothing to worry about if you can face them.

Protect yourself by knowing the worst-case scenario that you can face.

It is always better to build the ark before the rain comes.

To thrive with your system, you must first survive with your bankroll.

Uncle Point

What is the maximum level of pain that you are willing to suffer? …

If history repeats itself, paying attention to the Past is crucial to building Value Betting Strategies on Football Draws

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Image by intographics from Pixabay

In order to value betting on draws, I needed to buy overpriced odds to get value from the misjudgments of Mr. Market.
I had to compile my own odds to bet on much higher odds than I estimated to take advantage of bargain prices with a good margin of safety.

To get started, I just needed a KISS.

A “Keep It Simple, Stupid!” approach was my straightforward starting point to compile the odds from an unemotional perspective.

At the time, I saw Moneyball and fell in love with it by receiving a KISS from the first pivotal scene, in which Peter Brand said to Billy…

How the Betting Market protects the Draws for a long term investment

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Photo by David Mark on Pixabay

Once you have made an in-depth analysis to make accurate assessments on the draws you want to invest in, other essential observations come into play to help make a good investment.

The “different twins” of value investing W. Buffett and C. Munger use the Four Filters as an effective formula to evaluate the goodness of a business.

They look for:

  1. a business that they are capable of understanding
  2. a durable competitive advantage
  3. honest and competent management
  4. a bargain price as a margin of safety

Understanding a business is only the first step towards a profitable long-term investment. To go forward after a first thorough analysis, asking yourself the right questions is crucial for an aware choice about a business. …


Massimiliano Imparato

Building Value Betting Systems on Football. Focused on how to profit from Draws. Value Investing enthusiast. RiskTaker for a living. Human being. Doer.

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