How to Bet in the New Football with a Profitable Strategy

In the new scenario of Football behind closed doors, successful betting could be simpler than you think.

Image for post
Image for post

In these times of Football games behind closed doors, there is an interesting trend going on: Betting on Draws is extraordinarily profitable.

I mean, right on all the Draws.

The first signs of the current trend appeared with the return of the Bundesliga behind closed doors, as I reported a dozen days ago.

The same is happening in the other leagues that have just restarted behind closed doors, so if we had wagered a fixed stake on the Draws of the best European Leagues matches, we would have obtained a Yield of 22.24% after 254 Bets.

The above results are available according to the closing odds of the sharp bookmaker Pinnacle, which are commonly recognized as the fairest in reflecting the real probabilities of the underlying outcomes.

However, bookmakers are in an unusual spot to compile fair odds: matches behind closed doors that reduce the home advantage, which leads to more Draws (more away wins) and fewer home wins.

Nevertheless, the Draw odds are still too high, as the overwhelming majority of bettors are notoriously averse to Betting on Draws.

This happens because the market is not reacting properly to the ”New Football” scenario as the Efficient Market Hypothesis would like, according to which all available information is taken into account by the market and will be reflected in a final fair price (closing odds) based on the quantity of money wagered by bettors on different outcomes.

Thus, Betting on all Draws has become a very profitable strategy in the new context.

You get paid more for something is worth less than the set price.

Serie A, Premier League and LaLiga are behind the corner, not just behind the close doors and Betting on Draws could still be a winning choice.

Keeping your eyes open on the trend allows you to take advantage of a unique opportunity and helps you understand how long it will last.

Because as Kenny Rogers sang:

“If you’re gonna play the game, boy

You gotta learn to play it right

You’ve got to know when to hold ‘em

Know when to fold ‘em

Know when to walk away

And know when to run …

Every gambler knows

That the secret to survivin ‘

Is knowin ‘what to throw away

And knowin ‘what to keep …

Written by

Building Value Betting Systems on Football. Focused on how to profit from Draws. Value Investing enthusiast. RiskTaker for a living. Human being. Doer.

Get the Medium app

A button that says 'Download on the App Store', and if clicked it will lead you to the iOS App store
A button that says 'Get it on, Google Play', and if clicked it will lead you to the Google Play store