A Cold Valentine

Check out that pink and purple on the map above. These are forecast low temperatures for this coming Valentine’s Day morning (Sunday). This push of arctic air is likely the coldest of the season thus far for portions of the Midwest and eastern U.S. and perhaps could end up being the coldest of the entire season.

How cold? We’re talking low temps that will be roughly 20 to 35 degrees below average for mid-February standards; and that bar is already low to begin with.

This is a computer weather model (GFS) depiction of the surface temperature anomaly for Sunday morning. Notice the shades of dark purple and magenta. It’s here — Upstate New York, New England, and the southern Appalachians — where temps will push 30-degrees-below average and in some cases approach 40-degrees-below average.

Although this is a very deep plunge into an arctic air mass, this level of cold will be fleeting. There are signs that a pattern change by the end of the same week will mean a return to seasonable and even above-average temperatures.

Finally, with this cold in place we also have to be very vigilant in spotting snow-producing storm systems. As of this writing (Tuesday morning), computer models have been fairly consistent in showing a modest storm system descending out of the Upper Midwest on Sunday (2/14) and sweeping eastward dropping snow as far south as north Georgia by Monday (2/15). It’s too early to make out anything concrete in terms of a forecast but it bears watching.