2100: An African Federation of Wealth for The People

Transitioning Africa to a Continent of Wealth for the Masses in Our Lifetimes.

Africa Projected for Poverty Rising

African Development is a worldwide phenomenon that is often supported around the world. We all would love to see a world where prosperity reigns and poverty erased. Global poverty has decreased at a remarkable rate over the past several decades. We all believe Africa’s turn next.

Unfortunately for Sub-Saharan Africa, the number of people in extreme poverty is not decreasing fast enough. The number is projected to stagnate. With many countries increasing poor populations. Populations are growing much more rapidly than economic growth. This is actually leading to the number of people in poverty in these countries rising. [1]

Setting a 2100 Goal

As bleak as this sounds, recent history shows us that current trends don’t have to become a future reality. Countries like China, India, and Indonesia had rapid population growth and limited economic growth. And that was projected to increase. However, all these trends reversed when all these countries had a moment at which they broke out of economic stagnation. [2]

For those up for a challenge, let’s set a mandate to have this moment and transition Africa into a continent of wealth for the masses in our lifetimes.

A mandate is something that must be achieved in a lifetime, not an optional aspiration. I was born in 1996, so assuming good health, resulting in a longer lifespan of about 100 years, I would set the mandated year for 2100.

And for such an audacious goal, it only makes sense to set clear milestones for this 2100 Africa. I’m setting an Africa Milestone at my generation’s halfway point: 2050.

What Does This 2100 Africa Look Like?

Africa is beautiful, but for the everyday person living in poverty, it looks more like the picture on the left. Africa has flashes of beauty and wealth, but it generally resigned to the few. The picture on the left (Africa 2020) also represents the worldwide indignity of the black race.

The impact of colorism and racism is felt all across the world. Much of the sentiment is tied to a superiority complex that other communities feel when looking at black people as the world’s poorest. Insofar as we demand respect and rights as people, until there is a new narrative, the world will continue to resign black people to the lowest of societies. “We must first reclaim dignity and that this comes through the construction of a solid black state with a demonstrable level of development and prosperity — and which can stand as a powerful advocate for the global black.” [3]

For Africa to stand, the people must stand. 2100 Africa must be made to work for the general public. The picture on the right (Africa 2100) shows that public roads and consistent power infrastructure are the tip of the iceberg. There will be subsidized public transportation, extensive railroads, and affordable air transport. There will be affordable housing, food, healthcare, and clothing. Free children's education that works for the African context and culture will be in place. And economic earning opportunities will be plentiful based on an economic system that rewards hard work instead of only the connected.

For this All to be Possible, 2100 Africa would have:

• 1 Unified African Federation with African Union (AU) passports to all Africans + Diaspora
• >50% membership of continental Africa
• 1 Single African currency
• Basic Infrastructure Requirements Mandated by the African Federation (Power, Roads, Trains, Postal System, Housing, etc)

Why 1 Africa?

A federation is a group of states with a central government where sovereign power is formally divided between the central authority and a number of constituent regions.

The essence of this federation is to act in the long-term interests of all the states together. A typical federation has powers such as collecting taxation, providing common defense, and provision of general welfare. Taxation is important because that would power the federal budget.

With proper management, this leads to the creation of public works like schools and public hospitals. This creates post offices, roads connecting post offices, and public railroads between major cities. Public utilities and power infrastructure, drainage and sewage, affordable housing, and more.

For example, an African Federation could establish Power Generation companies in West Africa. Their role would be to make up deficits for individual nations deficient in power generation. They could also plan ahead, using population growth trends, and construct generating companies to meet anticipated demands.

Member states of a federation hardly consider the common good of the continent. They primarily have their own interests focused within their countries. It must fall on an entity charged with that responsibility to take account of Africa as a whole and develop her. Today we have no political structure with the powers to improve living conditions for the African population as a whole.

This general population comprises 5 continental regions. The African Union also recognizes the Diaspora, outside of continental Africa, as the 6th region. Defined as: “People of African origin living outside the continent irrespective of citizenship and nationality and who are willing to contribute to the development of the continent and building of the African Union”. This Diaspora population makes up over 10% of the total African population. [4]

Furthermore, we live in a globalized economy where it is no longer an effective strategy to only look inward. Advancements in communication and transportation have created trade linkages all across the world. As a result, consumers demand products, goods, and services, all over the world.

With all this being said, the unfortunate reality is that individual African countries make up the majority of the world’s smallest economies. So when it comes to trade and infrastructure deals, African countries have the lowest leverage in negotiations.

The picture above on the left-hand side compares China’s GDP and population with Kenya as a single African country. The right-hand side compares China’s GDP and population with the combined African Union.

GDP may not be the most accurate measure for wealth distribution, but it is a very solid snapshot of the leverage a country has in negotiation as a market. When a single African country with a $100B GDP is negotiating with China’s mammoth $14T GDP for the construction of a railroad. Which entity will likely get the better deal? The one with more leverage can naturally get better terms because they have options. China might say, “If Kenya doesn’t accept, we can just go to Zambia.”

China’s GDP is about 150x bigger than Kenya’s GDP. Kenya is the 6th biggest African country. When China is negotiating with Rwanda, the GDP scale difference balloons to ~1400x. [5]

African countries in their haste to get attractive loans and projects, are not able to negotiate favorable deal terms. There are interest payments they are not able to pay which leads to default. In several cases, countries like China have default terms where defaulting on a loan leads to the takeover of rights and ownership for African infrastructure like ports. [6]

This is already happening. In the end, such a process favors China and significantly harms the interests of African people in the long-term. China is not the only trading partner that Africa’s smaller, non-diversified economies have limited leverage with. The same applies for any large economy and leads to decreased leverage on negotiating good prices and deals for African countries.

When you look at the GDP of Africa as a Federation in 2019 would be $2.3 Trillion which would be a top 10 global economy when compared to other countries. Compared to China, Africa becomes only 7x smaller now. Furthermore, since several of Africa’s economies are the fastest-growing in the world, as population booms, Africa’s GDP is expected to become a $13T economy in 2050 and continue moving up the list.

It is quite important to consider the concept of negotiating trade deals on the world stage as one. The Africa Union could tell China that they will not receive any further contracts in Africa unless the terms are more favorable for all. If one country said this, China could easily walk away.

If the African Union said this and could enforce it, China would modify its stance. Africa as a union is currently more populous than India and China. And the population is growing rapidly. By 2050: 1 in 4 people on the planet will be African. By: 2100: over 1 in 3 people on the planet will be African. [7]

United Nations World Population Prospects (2019)

United Nations Global Population Projections by Region

Africa is simply a market that can’t be ignored. Many billionaires like Bill Gates, Jack Ma, and recently Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey after a brief visit to Africa, have clearly seen this.

“Africa will define the future. Not sure where yet, but I’ll be living here for 3–6 months mid 2020.” -Jack Dorsey

The trade agreements of different regions and the strength that comes with those unions have been key reasons why economic blocks like NATO, China, the United Kingdom, and the European Union are the most successful in trade in the world. An African Federation would put Africans on a more equal playing field in the global economy.

2050 Milestones:

• African Diaspora formally enabled to be naturalized as African citizens
• 50% of nations ratify African Federation to vest central powers like taxation, common defense, post offices, post roads, and provision of general Welfare.
• 80% of nations ratify free movement and right to establish across Africa (freely available AU passport extended to African Diaspora naturalized citizens)
• 100% implementation of Free Intra-Africa trade with unified AU Customs for export deals
• African Culture, Heritage, and Unity classes included in Secondary School curriculums
• Creation of dozens of African Federation 100% owned infrastructure construction companies, mergers/buyouts with local companies. These would be big companies meant to serve as economic earning opportunities for young people to become the builders of Africa’s future.

The Road to 2050 ahead will be Rough

Heading into 2050, there are many challenges that lie ahead. Nations are still dealing with issues of security, ethnic tensions, and poor infrastructure challenges. Nations are still acting in their own interest with border decisions as opposed to working in the interest of Africa.

We still have poor monetary policies, poorly diversified economies with few industries, poor execution of infrastructure contracts, governments are taking untenable loans, losing ownership of infrastructure, and are likely to suffer from currency devaluation, inflation of fuel and food, gender inequality, and limited health and educational infrastructure.

The road ahead will be tough and that is why this effort is a call to those up to the challenge. All difficulties and dangers are certainly challenges and hurdles, but they don’t actually prevent us from making progress towards the Mandate.

What Can We Do Now?

1. Find which countries already support 1 Africa and work with their leadership. Example: Ghana’s Year of Return for Diaspora and issuing of Diaspora citizenships
2. Drastically increase the involvement of young people in the African Union & Regional African Parliaments. Have greater transparency of all activities.
3. Campaign for changing the African Union charter to grant federal powers to tax and provide general welfare for African people. Or if that is untenable, create a new Pan African Federation.
4. Stimulate conversation about 1 Africa, practice self-love as children of Africa, and become more aware of history as Africans and Diaspora descendants
5. Support public figures speaking out (Former African Union Ambassador to the USA Arikana Chihombori Quao [8])
6. African Diaspora including descendants of enslaved Africans: Visit Africa
7. African Diaspora who move back: Learn, solve local problems, and create income-generating opportunities for the general population.
8. Start a conversation around African Federation company ownership structures where taxpayers have ownership, reporting standards, and long-term investment opportunities. Liaise with existing institutions such as The African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) & The African Development Bank (AfDb)
9. Start the conversation around the African Federation and relationship with member states. Checks & balances of powers and leadership structure suited for Africa.
10. Organize, share ideas, and work in the interest of the African general public.

What About The African Union Existing Agenda 2063?

In 2013, The African Union (AU) released a master plan for transforming Africa into the global powerhouse of the future. The AU agenda 2063 is a 50-year plan that sets targets for gradual improvements in key areas in Africa. For example: Lowering hunger by 20% in 40 years, increasing power supply 50%, increasing internet connectivity 50%, doubling GDP contributions of ICT + creative arts, and so on.

While we all agree the goals sound positive, the AU has no way of actually enforcing these outcomes. These are recommendations for which AU has a little impact over its implementation. During the founding of the AU, the majority of African leaders did not support a unified political federation. They felt each nation should be autonomous and the AU should have weak central powers.

African Unions’ predecessor, The OAU, did little to protect the rights and liberties of African citizens from their own political leaders, critics called it “Dictators’ Club”. The OAU’s operating culture was that member states turned a blind eye to their neighbors’ affairs. [9]

Despite using different language, The AU mimicked its predecessor’s tradition non-interference and non-intervention. This, of course, is attributed to an AU Charter that only grants intervention in the case of genocide, war crimes, and crimes against humanity. So anything otherwise is a nation’s own business.

The AU has formed short-term goals such as: “all obstacles to women doing business removed by 2023 and Child labor exploitation, marriages, trafficking and soldiering would have ended by 2023” [10] It is unlikely these issues completely disappear in 3 years. And even if they did, The AU could hardly be the reason as their current budget is meant primarily for office overheads and administrative program expenses.

The AU, relies mainly on two sources of funding: yearly contributions of African member states and aid from donors like the European Union. The will of African people is not represented in the AU as they have no real stake in The AU. For that to be the case, The African Union must have powers to tax and budgets to build the infrastructure needed to create real change.

Comparatively, The European Union (EU) as a political and economic union shows an interesting example. In 2019, the EU’s budget was ~$165 Billion compared to the African Union’s budget of $681 Million. Unlike the AU’s dependence on foreign donations and optional state contributions, the EU taxes national income & imports, and additionally a value-added tax (VAT) on citizens.

For 2014–2020, The European Union is spending 70% of the budget on agriculture, regional infrastructure projects, and job creation. A mere 6% goes to administrative expenses. The EU’s spending in agriculture actually replaces national spending for European countries. Furthermore, in some EU countries with limited financial capacity, like Portugal and Croatia, EU funding finances up to 80% of public investment. And this is exactly how the African Union should be working and playing an active role in meeting continental milestones. [11]

Without any presence on the ground or capability to turn suggestions into realities, AU recommendations are mostly ignored by member nations. It is great to have the 2063 Agenda, but we must push for the AU to have greater powers to turn recommendations into requirements or create a new Federation altogether to do it.

But We Are Nationalists and Prefer Our Countries To Be Separate

The rationale of “remain as sovereign states” was the argument made in the past by many nations. Colonial America struggled with the issue where the general populace not being represented by the British and they were being taxed with little to no provision of the general welfare.

American Political Cartoon attributed to Benjamin Franklin. Gazette (1754)

All the states initially saw themselves as separate colonies with different cultures and beliefs. What they learned is that the only way to make life better for all was to unite for the common good. This political cartoon printed in 1754, 22 years before America’s independence, shows a snake cut into 8 segments. Each different colonies was making up each segment (New England, New York, New Jersey, etc) The cartoon is demonstrating that without unity of each state, the entire body will fall.

African nations already had this argument in the early 1960s. Newly independent African nations were meeting to discuss how they would coexist on the continent. There were two camps: The Monrovia Group and The Casablanca group. The Monrovia bloc, officially called The Conference of Independent African States, did not support the notion of a political federation and believed African nations should have separate economies and full autonomy. The Casablanca Group had belief in the need for an African federation, they felt only this deep integration would achieve peace, foster cultural dialogue, increase the continent’s geopolitical influence and promote economic development. [12]

20 countries supported the Monrovia group while 7 comprised the Casablanca bloc. Therefore in 1963, the Monrovia ideals prevailed for all African nations. 50+ years later the Monrovia approach has clearly not lead to great outcomes for the majority of African nations. Divide & Conquer was one of the primary tactics used to colonize Africa, and the Monrovia approach of divide and run separate economies is not too different. [13]

But We Are Still Too Divided. The General Public Won’t Understand

As things look now, the division seems untenable, but for those that have the privilege to think long-term, we must understand that these divisions and tensions won’t be this volatile forever. And if that’s the case, we should focus on how we can dramatically decrease divisions.

Poverty exposes the worst in us because everyone is looking to survive and looking for who to blame for their issues. The key is ending this division is Economic incentives and income-earning opportunities. Specifically, paid work-trainings and gainful employment opportunities for African Federation projects.

Building the basic infrastructure of the federation will create a continental conscience. Employment opportunities will cut across tribal, religious, and state lines. Once people can enjoy a decent living, crime and ethnic tensions will decrease. This is where we will find unity.

Fortunately, this was a landmark year for Africa with the signing of The African Continental Free Trade Zone (AfCFTA) that was ratified this in April 2019. This is the first time in the history of Africa there has been a continent-wide free trade area. This is the world’s largest free trade area by number of countries. Implementation is looking to begin in 2020. Even with early resistance and expected growing pains, this is a major long-term move that will increase trade across borders and make Africa more self-sustaining.

In July 2016, an African Union Summit, officially established guidelines for a common, electronic, biometric African passport that will facilitate free movement of persons across Africa. Right now, African nations are already promoting Visas on arrival and have signed the Protocol to Authorize Free Movement of African people, The Right to Residence, and The Right to Establish Commerce. Overtime this protocol is also expected to be ratified along with African Union passports. Having the free movement of people, capital, goods, and services will result in significant increases in trade and investments among African countries rising substantially. As African trade increases, the relationship between African countries will improve, thus fostering increased unity between all Africans. [14]

Why Don’t We Focus on the Private Sector and Forget Political Unity?

Often private sector growth is named as the principal lever to economic development. While it is true that successful businesses that can still rapidly scale and have a massive impact, private businesses don’t fundamentally change the standard of living changing for the average person in the same way, that a working economic system can. You can be Africa’s richest man producing all kinds of goods and still be in the country with most people in extreme poverty on the planet. [15] Furthermore, in Africa especially, political control typically translates to control of economic resources. For great wealth to be generated for the general populace, what history shows us repeatedly, is that a political state creates the conditions.

Europe and America experienced great periods of wealth increases under Imperialism, Manifest Destiny, and now Globalization. These were all international level policies that incentivized private actors to do what benefited their countries long-term. We hear of America’s industrial revolution, but we don’t hear of the long-term planning and industry shielding with protective tariffs that enabled America to grow rapidly the 19th century. America’s current trade war with China today is an example of this in action today. China’s Leap Forward into Manufacturing was a national policy, not an organic movement. India’s Green Revolution and Indonesia’s government rapidly diversifying their economy and policies to incentivize key export industries was not organic free-market choices alone, but strategic legislation and execution. [16]

Most current African governments inherited colonial systems of governance with systems that are primarily designed for resource extraction and contract exploitation. With a federation that is designed and responsible for long-term planning and general welfare, we will begin to see very different outcomes.

The Role of the African Diaspora

For hundreds of years, there has been a great disconnect between the Africans in The Diaspora and Africa. This is especially poignant for descendants of enslaved Africans. There is increasingly a trend of Diaspora members wanting to reconnect with Africa. We are seeing progress, but this interest and potential have not been fully harnessed on a large scale. In short, to get full buy-in, members of the African Diaspora must be naturalized as active citizens of the African Federation.

The AU already recognizes the Diaspora as Africa’s 6th region. There must be a federation in place with powers to tax and execute the provision of the general welfare. At this point, any person in the Diaspora should be able to join the federation by choice. For the Diaspora in the United States, the United States Government would not join the Federation, but an Independent coalition or organization of Diasporas people would be able to be naturalized as the citizens of Africa’s Diaspora block.

They would become citizens and taxpayers for the federation. There are millions ready and willing if the Federation demonstrates an ability to execute. Africans in the Diaspora are an important first-mover for the federation. The tax money generated from the Diaspora would be too big to ignore, and overtime more African countries will join the federation to access resources for general welfare provision.

The West and China will not develop Africa for Africans. That is the job of Africans and her Diaspora. Africans in the Diaspora living around the globe have a unique perspective to think on a continental scale compared to one person in Uganda. Combined with skin in the game through taxpaying for Africa, they would have a greater incentive for Africa’s societal development.

Africans in the Diaspora would be less prone to ethnic bias, and as representatives from the Diaspora, they could play a key role being physically present for projects on the ground so that fellow taxpayers have full transparency and learn best practices. As Former African Union Ambassador Dr. Chihombori-Quao said, “If the Diaspora deposits $1B into a bank account the conversation changes. The Diaspora will be listened to when we speak with one voice.”

Carrying the Torch Forward

There will certainly be institutions and individuals that for various reasons will be against a United Africa providing for the welfare of African people, and perhaps the concept runs contrary to their interests. However, my allegiance is to African people and the future generations so I believe we should do all we can to bring this into reality.

I am taking a glass half full view that we will achieve this because that allows me to live with a sense of responsibility for the outcome I want to see. And connect and work with others who believe the same.

In any case, wherever we leave off, the next generation will carry the torch forward, as we are now. And we’ll leave the rest to them.

Citations

[1] “Why is the number of poor people in Africa increasing when Africa’s economies are growing?” https://www.brookings.edu/blog/africa-in-focus/2015/05/04/why-is-the-number-of-poor-people-in-africa-increasing-when-africas-economies-are-growing/

[2] “As the world’s poorest economies are stagnating half a billion are expected to be in extreme poverty in 2030" https://ourworldindata.org/extreme-poverty-projections

[3] Foreign Policy “There Are No Successful Black Nations” https://foreignpolicy.com/2016/08/09/there-are-no-successful-black-nations-africa-diginty-racism-pan-africanism/

[4] Africa Union “The Diaspora Division” https://au.int/en/diaspora-division

[5] “World Economic Outlook Database, October 2019”. IMF.org. International Monetary Fund. 15 October 2019

[6] https://issafrica.org/iss-today/high-cost-of-having-china-as-africas-partner-of-choice

[7] United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2019). World Population Prospects 2019: Data Booklet (ST/ESA/SER.A/424)https://population.un.org/wpp/Publications/Files/WPP2019_DataBooklet.pdf

[8] “African Union Ambassador Calls for closer ties with the African Diaspora in the Americas” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aFELNcfUo5I

[9] Nkrumah, Kwame. Africa Must Unite. New York: F.A. Praeger, 1963. Print.

[10] African Union “Key Transformational Outcomes of Agenda 2063” https://au.int/en/agenda2063/outcomes

[11] “Financial Framework Proposed by the European Commission” https://ec.europa.eu/info/publications/financial-framework-proposed-european-commission_en

[12] “African Union” https://www.academia.edu/5283096/African_Union

[13] African Development Bank “Bank Group’s Evolution” https://www.afdb.org/en/about-corporate-information-history/bank-groups-evolution

[14] United Nations “Pan-Africa Passport to Open up Borders” https://www.un.org/africarenewal/magazine/august-2016/pan-africa-passport-open-borders

[15]Oxfam (2019) A TALE OF TWO CONTINENTS FIGHTING INEQUALITY IN AFRICA (https://oi-files-d8-prod.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/file_attachments/bp-tale-of-two-continents-fighting-inequality-africa-030919-en.pdf)

[16] The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. “FROM EVOLUTION TO REVOLUTION IN AGRICULTURE” http://www.fao.org/3/AC621E/ac621e05.htm