BTC — summary
- On 02/May/2017 BTC broke its trend channel at the level of 1436 USD starting the end of the 4 year cycle “bubble” (bubble — it is the place when the BTC price starts to go up exponentially).
- The time of the “bubble” is unpredictable since it is irrational and based only on educated guesses and the mood of participants. Price can crash right now or reach 3, 5 or even (however unlikely ) 30 K USD(not in this run up at least).
- Trading — unless you are in position since the breakout of the channel is not recommended and to be considered as a pure gamble. If you are in position — the best thing to do is to hold until the “long pole” appearance (massive single sell order — distinguishable by a big red candle on the 1 H chart).
- In my opinion we are very close or at the point of the “red pole” so waiting and wondering how high the price will go up (FOMO -ing) should’t be long (around 3000 USD).
Again the price movement is irrational at this time.
What to expect?
Technical Analysis does not apply in general at the time of the bubble. BTC is overpriced and swinging in unpredictable way.
We don’t know at which stage of the BTC bubble we are right now. Previously when the bubble occurred the daily rises were of 20–50 % range (by the end). It is not the case right now, however it may be tomorrow next week or never.
After the bubble bursts we can expect BTC price to find support at the break out point (1200- 1436 USD range, or if following the low of the 4 year cycle trend below 1000 USD), but better to wait for the price to crash and settle down on the same level, for some time(detailed possible entry points in the follow up), before entering long positions. Depending on the price level BTC reaches in this cycle, for the next ATH we can expect price going up 2x ATH ( example: if we reach 3000 USD in this cycle next ATH would end up at 6000 USD) + end of the cycle bubble (that may be 3x, 10x, ???)
Fundamentals for BTC are strong and the BTC (as a currency ) adoption rate is rising.
- BTC is considered as a “GOLD” of cryptocurrencies reaching market capitalisation of nearly 50 BLN USD or ~0.5% of worlds gold reserve.
- Japan legalised BTC as a currency and other countries to follow.
- Cryptocurrency market is developing with many new currencies ( Litecoin, Etherum, XMR, Dash … to name just a few)
- Technology behind BTC is developing ( introduction of SegWit, Lighting Channels just about to come making the speed and cost of transactions even more effective)
- Financial Institutions are introducing BTC and Etherum as their financial instruments
- The eco system supporting cryptocurrencies is growing quickly.
Detailed analysis about price analysis, long, medium and short term trends, correlation between BTC and other cryptocurrencies, BTC eco system development ( including analysis of actual business models and new opportunities) to follow.