10 Contests left to Stop Trump
Let that sink in.
Everyone has their sights on Indiana, but that is only step one. We’ve spent an entire election saying “must win primary”, but its seriously a must win now if you’re on the stop Trump side.
Indiana does winner take all per congressional district, and Ted Cruz must sweep the state. Without question must he must win more than half. Polling doesn’t look good for him though, yikes. Cruz also got Kasich to stop campaigning there, if Cruz loses it will be terrible optics.
Nebraska is assumed to be going to Ted Cruz. It’s a pure winner take all & will probably go to Cruz.
One could make an argument for West Virginia, given it’s a loophole primary where voters directly elect the delegates without preference listed on the ballot. However PA is also a state that does this, and as of right now Trump massively won over them. West Virginia is also currently positioned to go for Trump anyway.
We could go down the list, but it doesn’t look great. My current projections have Trump winning the nomination with 1250 delegates, not counting the unbound delegates from Pennsylvania. This hasn’t changed much from my last guesses either, which means Trump is performing well.
To stop Trump now, it’s going to come down to June 7th.
New Jersey is well positioned mathematically, a 51 delegate blow would blow up my model and make it very close. However, geographically it’s pretty clear now the only candidate positioned to win big in the north east is Donald Trump.
That leaves California.
California is winner take all per congressional district (159 delegates, 3 per each of the 53 districts). Let’s say Cruz wins southern California, about 25 districts. That leaves Trump with 84 from congressional, add in the 13 statewide, he would reach 1237. Even if Kasich some how took the two districts next to Oregon, it would still be around the mark for Trump.
Assuming Cruz doesn’t significantly over perform in Indiana (Read: Yuggee win), the only way left to stop Trump is a California win.
Let me know what you think, is there still a path for the anti-Trump coalition? And follow below for more posts like this!