Based on last nights results, my best theory to stop Trump
I made a few predictions over the weekend about what we would see after the delegates were counted yesterday.
To summarize those predictions,
This means Trump could walk away with about ~200 delegates tomorrow. How far or beyond from 200 depends on his performance in NC+MO.
Moving beyond Trump for a moment, Cruz will be lucky to surpass winning 50 delegates.
Rubio will lose Florida and most likely drop out of the race.
The only candidate (other than Trump) who will win a significant delegate share on Tuesday is surprisingly Kasich.
Here are the latest numbers from the NYT.
A few things are now clear on the GOP side.
1- Cruz is the only candidate left that could potentially overtake Trump in delegates as the math is actually impossible for Kasich to win by delegate majority.
2- Kasich was actually able to stop Trump in Ohio, and Cruz was able to find deep pockets of support (basically evangelical) in various parts of the states, and thus kept the margins thin in MO/NC.
3- Neither candidate can win on either of those strategies (Hunting for small pockets of delegates & only winning a few specific states).
A lot of people are starting to rally behind Cruz regardless, seeing him as the last best chance to stop Trump. These people however are forgetting Cruz & Trump from a policy position are on the same extreme scale. The difference is Trump is able to turn that into large voter turnout. Cruz on the other hand is fighting to stay alive and would not win in a general election.
Now, Kasich isn’t the best option either. While he’s the best general election candidate for the GOP, he is way too far behind in delegates and narrowly focusing on certain states (After Ohio, its now PA). He’s begun hiring old convention strategists but thats assuming he’s able to survive that long. And as I also pointed out the other day, it’s unlikely a brokered convention is even possible.
So to me the solution to stopping Trump is clear, join forces.
In the primary Cruz brings the delegate lead & campaign infrastructure. Kasich on the other hand balances the ticket out being “the democrats favorite republican”. Together they could unify the Republican party. Which would be key in winning a contested convention. If they even get that far.
A Cruz/Kasich ticket would force Trump to divide his campaign on two fronts and finally narrow the field to a 1 on 1 race, which has serious implications.
Take this poll in PA that was conducted at the start of the month. In a Trump vs Kasich vs Cruz fight, Trump wins by large margin (its unclear where Rubio support is going, but I would assume its divided between Cruz/Kasich). Now combine the numbers of John, Cruz & Rubio, you get +46. Victory.
Or take this NY poll conducted also at the start of the month. The combined forces of Cruz/Rubio/Kasich beats Trump, in NY (+47 / +45). Whereas if divided, Trump wins easy.
Obviously this isn’t perfect math, and I shouldn’t assume every Rubio supporter will join the anti Trump coalition, but the point here isn’t to be precise. It’s to show with the party unified behind one ticket, it can stop Trump before the convention.
This Cruz/Kasich ticket by the way isn’t just great for the primary, it’s great for the general.
As I mentioned earlier, the two would balance each other out in terms of how far right and center they are. Kasich will carry Ohio, and maybe even Pennsylvania. Cruz gets Texas and sweeps through the south. It’s a serious threat for whomever the democratic nominee is.
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