The next battleground state for the GOP, Indiana.

I’ve been to Indiana a few times as my father grew up there. My gut feeling has been and remains to be, the atmosphere there is built for Trump, but some wiggle room for Cruz to take it.

For examle Carrier, based on Indiana, back in February went viral for shipping jobs overseas. However overall Indiana has seen manufacturing growth in the past decade, and the unemployment rate (5%) matches the national unemployment rate. Still Trump will give his usual trade message here, and it will probably resonate well. Data doesn’t always translate into emotions.

Lets also look at the geography.

http://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/national-results-map

On one side you’re going to have people used too local media seeping over from Ohio, good for Kasich. On all the other sides, you have some highly fought over states this primary season between the Cruz & Trump campaigns.

In a proportional primary, this would be bad for Trump. But Indiana is winner take all, and with Kasich + Cruz splitting the anti trump vote, Trump stands to take it all.

Unfortunately for the anti trump folks, Indiana is pretty much a must win for them. Denying Trump 52 delegates is crucial to blocking a 1237 nomination. To make matters worse, this is realistically from what I can see the only place left to create that big of an upset.

Trump knows this as well of course, so where is he gonna start riding out that New York momentum?


Disclaimer: Indiana is one of the worst places in the country to poll, don’t expect much reliable data on that front.