Fantasy Unowned Sleeper of the Week

Every week I will post one unowned free agency sleeper (defined as less than 50% owned in ESPN and Yahoo) that I think you should pickup and start.

Week 7 pick: Anquan Boldin

There’s no better sleeper than a player that people think has either retired or is over the hill — bring in Anquan Boldin. Were at the point where most have forgotten about him, but Boldin has quietly come back to fantasy relevance. He is averaging 6 catches per game over his last three outings and had his best game of the season last week catching 8 balls for 60 yards and a touchdown. He has begun to gain the trust of his quarterback as a reliable veteran receiver.

I like the matchup this week against Washington. They rank 8th against fantasy receivers, which might cause people to overlook Boldin. However, they play zone defense, which will work in Boldin’s favor heavily. Stafford will look to hit the seams down the middle of the field, which favors Boldin’s game at this point in his career. More than anything else, the fact that Ebron is expected to miss the game helps Boldin a lot. He is left as the only red zone threat for a team that is going to score. He is currently available in close to 80% of ESPN leagues so be bold and go start Anquan Boldin.

Week 6 pick: Chris Hogan

There is a reason why Reggie Bush nicknamed Chris Hogan “7/11” back in 2012 — he is always open. That was certainly the case last Sunday; check how open he is on these highlights:

http://www.nfl.com/big-play-highlights/2016/REG/5?team=NE#

Hogan had 114 yards receiving including two catches that went for over 40 yards each. He is establishing himself as the only deep threat for the best quarterback in football. The other Patriots wide receivers — Edelman and Amendola — are both slot receivers and have different skillsets.

I like the matchup this week against Cincinnati who is ranked 20th in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers this year. They cover the slot well which means it will be harder to get Edelman involved. They also give up the deep ball, which should open things up for Hogan to catch a long ball or two. Look at how open Stills gets on this bomb pass vs. Cinci http://www.nfl.com/big-play-highlights/2016/REG?team=MIA

The deep threat wide receivers that Cinci has played this year include Terrance Williams, Kenny Stills, Demaryius Thomas and Sammy Coates. Each of those receivers has had at least 70 yards against Cinci. Hogan is owned in 38.6 percent of ESPN leagues and 35% of Yahoo leagues as of this writing, so grab 7/11 and look for the guy who is always open on Sunday.

Week 5 pick: Cameron Brate

What if I told you that you that player X is on pace for 80 catches 904 yards and 16 touchdowns, and you can pick up player X right now. Is that something you might be interested in? Player X is Cameron Brate. Were going with the best name in the NFL for your week 5 sleeper. Brate has played excellent since Austin Seferian Jenkings got cut. In the last two weeks he has 10 receptions for 113 yards and two touchdowns. Considering that he played two tough defenses in the Rams and Denver, his numbers are very impressive. Moreover, I love his upside even more considering that he is just starting to build chemistry with Winston. Winston will only get more comfortable with Brate, so Brate may not have even peaked yet. I think we are looking at the Gary Barnidge of last year — perhaps with a better quarterback and offense.

I love the matchup this week against Carolina who has given up the third most points to tight ends this season. Brate is available in over 83% of leagues so pick him up and plug him in the lineup. If nothing else you will be able to change your team name to Make America Brate Again.

Week 4 pick: Dwayne Washington

Dwayne Make It Rain Washington

In this era of football, it is extremely hard to find sleeper running backs but we’ve got you covered. Write down the name fellas — Dwayne Washington. There is a great opportunity here with Ameer Abdullah out for the season. I understand that Washington did not do too much in his first game without Abdullah, carrying the ball ten times for 38 yards. However, consider the circumstances — the Lions were playing from behind the entire game against the Packers, so they only had 20 total running back carries. Moreover, compare his stats to Theo Riddick who had the same amount of carries for 29 less yards — Washington made it clear that he is superior as a runner. Furthermore, the Lions recognize that Riddick is a third down guy, which leaves Washington as the only true runner in the backfield. Based on this, I would expect Washington to get two thirds of the work this week instead of just half the carries. So, if the Lions run 25 times that would give Washington 16 carries this week.

What I love most about Washington is the matchup. The Bears front 7 looked great in preseason and early on, but it has been decimated by injuries to Danny Trevathan, Lamarr Houston, and Eddie Goldman. The injuries took its toll last week when they gave up 140 rushing yards to Zeke. Zeke finished with an average of 4.7 yards per carry, and it should have been a lot more than that — his YPC was brought down late in the game when the Cowboys were ticking clock and the Bears were stacking the box.

The eye test in the Bears Cowboys game told you that the Bears front 7 is capable of being bullied after all the injuries. Furthermore, given that the Bears are a horrendous team, I would expect the Lions to keep the game close or get ahead, which would give them leeway to run the ball with Washington. Or should I say Dwayne Make it Rain Washington. Washington is only owned in a fifth of ESPN leagues right now, so pick him up and start him. You heard it here first.

Week 3 pick: Cole Beasley

Cole Beastly

If I told you two weeks ago that Cole Beasley would be the Cowboys’ leading receiver, you would have asked me what I was smoking. However, he leads Dez by 5 receptions and 30 yards through two games. At 5 feet 8 inches tall, Beasley is a poor man’s Julian Edelman, which is exactly what the Cowboys need right now. Dak Prescott is a rookie quarterback who has no incentive to take risks throwing outside the numbers. The Cowboys aren’t asking the rookie to do too much, so Prescott has been throwing quick/short passes the first two weeks. This game plan suits Beasley’s skillset perfectly and is the reason you should like Beasley going forward. As I pointed out when predicting breakout games for Tajae Sharpe and Cruz the past two weeks, the most important thing for a WR to have is the trust of his quarterback. Beasley has earned that trust; Prescott said “He’s a guy I always believe he’s open” among other compliments (http://www.star-telegram.com/sports/nfl/dallas-cowboys/article103326577.html). Furthermore, Beasley has consistently caught over 70% of his passes, so he is a reliable target.

I really like the matchup this week against the Bears. The last two weeks, the slot receivers have had solid games against the Bears. Eddie Royal, who isn’t a particularly dynamic player, had four catches for 57 yards and a touchdown against them. Then, Jordan Matthews had six catches for 71 yards in week 2. However, Matthews should have had a much bigger game — he dropped a touchdown, and Wentz missed him twice for short throws. Furthermore, I believe game-flow will be favorable in this game. The Bears don’t have a good running game so they shouldn’t control time of possession. This means more time on offense — aka more time to get Beasley involved. Furthermore, the Cowboys shouldn’t be able to run as much as usual because the Bears have a stout rushing defense — aka more passes to Beasley. Cole Beastley (not a typo) is still available in over 90% of ESPN leagues and 83% of Yahoo Leagues, so snag him off the wire and start him with confidence.

Week 2 pick: Victor Cruz

Revenant Cruuuuuuuuuz

Wait, don’t burry him yet… Hes alive! Victor Cruz was completely off fantasy radars after missing a year of football, but he made an appearance in week 1 against the Cowboys; apparently Cruz is alive and well. He may not be what used to be, but he still displayed solid speed and route running. He caught all four of his targets for 34 yards and a touchdown –good enough to show he is involved in the offense, but also unspectacular enough so that you can still grab him off the wire. I expect Cruz to receive more targets this week because the Giants did not throw much in week 1; they will have more pass attempts this week, which means more targets and receptions for Cruz. Furthermore, Cruz has the trust of his quarterback and that cannot be taken for granted. We often look at a receiver’s build (body, speed, side, talent ect.), but trust is the single most important attribute for fantasy players. Without trust, you don’t get targeted and the talent is meaningless; lets not forget that Cruz has built a rapport with Eli Manning dating years back.

More than anything else, I love the matchup this week against the aints (that was not a typo). The Saints best cornerback, Delvin Breaux, just underwent surgery. This leaves them with Ken Crawley, P.J. Williams, and De’Vante Harris at cornerback. Ken who? P.J. who? If your wondering why you don’t know these guys its because two of them are undrafted rookies and the other one played in his first game last week. The Saints coaching staff is currently having nightmares about having to play undrafted rookies against OBJ; they will react by putting two or three cornerbacks on OBJ at the minimum. As a result, Cruz will have single coverage against an undrafted rookie. Furthermore, the game flow will be favorable because the Saints should score points, which will keep the Giants throwing.

Alive + trust of quarterback + aints + best cornerback is injured + single coverage against an undrafted rookie + favorable game flow = good week for revenant Cruuuuuuuuuz. I like our chances at seeing a salsa dance this Sunday.

Week 1 pick: Dwayne Allen. Result: 17.3 points

Red Zone Allen

In Dwayne Allen’s last full season with Andrew Luck he caught 8 touchdowns; that was with Coby Fleener stealing targets. Now that Fleener is gone, Allen is the team’s premier red zone threat. A number to remember is that 69% of his career receiving touchdowns has come in the red zone. Furthermore, whom else is Luck going to look to in the red zone — T.Y. Hilton and Phillip Dorsett? Both players don’t even come close to reaching 6 feet in height. Sure, Moncrief will steal some touchdowns, but there will be plenty to go around considering that the team’s WR1 and WR3 might not even be on the field in the red zone. Furthermore, the Colts signed Allen to a four-year, 29.4 million extension in the offseason proving that they value his game and plan to utilize him going forward. Moreover, Rob Chudzinski is a coordinator that loves to utilize the tight end (Greg Olsen and Jordan Cameron had breakout seasons under him).

Allen has juicy matchup to start the season with the Detroit Lions who allowed the 29th most fantasy points to tight ends last season. Additionally, both teams don’t have much of a running game which means it will be harder to milk clock. Furthermore, this also has the looks of a game that could turn into a shootout because both offenses like to air it out. In this type of game, I like the 6’3, 265 pound tight end’s chances of catching a touchdown.

- Popping J’s