Week 4 College Football Top 25 — “A Crack in Alabama’s Armor or Simply Searching for Someone Else?”
This was bound to happen eventually. A team (or two) plays a ranked opponent well, even convincingly winning on the road and all of a sudden first place votes start to trickle away from Alabama. Last week, Alabama received 58 of 61 votes in the AP poll. The latest poll, shown below, has Alabama only receiving 45 of the 61, with №2 Clemson garnering 15 votes and №3 Oklahoma actually losing a vote and sliding down a spot for beating Tulane 56–14. Now, there are legitimate talks of Alabama not being such a sure thing. After all, Vanderbilt (of, “I really like what Coach Mason is doing down there,” fame) is calling them out. Let’s put aside the fact that on the schedule, Alabama was already next on the schedule. What in the world makes the Commodores feel emboldened to challenge the SEC monolith that is the Crimson Tide?
Need I remind the Commodores of their shocking lack of success against Alabama over the last few seasons? (12 straight losses by an average of 15 ppg). Or of the many, many, many teams that have exclaimed “We Want ‘Bama” only to see many, many, many hopes dashed against the rocks. However, there is certainly a slight cause for concern long-term, i.e. post bye week schedule (№25 LSU, @ №17 Miss State, Mercer, @ №15 Auburn). First, the defense is not nearly as strong as one Nick Saban would like, particularly along the line. (Great piece on Saturday Down South here pertaining to just this point). The true issue there is not just that the defense is not as dominant as last year’s squad; it’s that №2 Clemson looks noticeably better. Nick Saban has almost always had the talent edge on defense to set his teams apart from all the others, even in the vaunted SEC. I have the absolute confidence that Alabama will win this weekend (by 18.5 aka the current line? Almost certainly), but if the defense continues to struggle the stronger SEC offenses will certainly take advantage.
Certainly, though, credit to Vanderbilt for taking part in a considerably turbulent weekend in CFB. Despite taking down the then-№18 Kansas State Wildcats, they did not pull off the biggest upset by point spread or by pre-season expectations standard. The former belongs to a new entrant into the top 25, №22 San Diego State for dispatching then-№19 Stanford. The Aztecs, a 9.5 point underdog, took advantage of a figuratively hungover Cardinal team still reeling from their blowout against №5 USC to push Stanford into the “others receiving votes” section of the poll. The latter was the stunning upset of then-№12 LSU by the now-№17 Misssissippi State Bulldogs, 37–7. In my picks column (which did not fare particularly well this past weekend; I got both these games wrong) I had said that the Tigers were the more talented team and that the Bulldogs would tire. Going off of last year’s game, where MSU only ran the ball for 56 yards, one might assume that LSU could simply be ready for a similar defensive performance. 285 yards on the ground later, I am willing to admit my foolishness. Whether the Bulldogs are truly the №17 team in the country remains to be seen, but their match up this weekend in Athens against the №11 Georgia Bulldogs will be an immediate test of their abilities.
Every Wednesday or so, I’ll be breaking down the latest top 25 poll from the AP and talking about why I agree or disagree with the movement of certain teams. Let’s first go with big moves up the poll.
Biggest Moves Up: №16 TCU (Up 4 spots), №17 Mississippi State (Up effectively 18 spots, explanation below), №20 Florida (Up 4 spots)
I touched on №17 Mississippi State above, but one last point. Not only are they now the 10th ranked team on ESPN’s Football Power Index (ahead of Georgia & Michigan), but they were behind teams like Houston, Notre Dame, Maryland and South Carolina in last weeks poll. To jump that many spots is very impressive and worrisome to me. Upsetting a highly ranked team at home builds a solid resume and surprise conference title game contenders have to come, by definition, as a surprise. I caution MSU fans to not get too hasty in enjoying the high ranking, as their next two weeks (at ranked Georgia and at ranked Auburn) may take some air out of the balloon.
№16 TCU slides up after a high scoring battle with SMU this past week, winning 56–36. Part of this rise is due to voters seeing the Horned Frogs as delivering consistently, but most comes from the fact that four teams that were ranked ahead of them last week (LSU, Louisville, Kansas State and Stanford) all lost this past weekend and dropped below them. That’s not to say that TCU does not deserve a chance to prove itself; after all, they did handily beat Arkansas just last week. The №16 rank may be soft as they travel to Stillwater to take on the №6 Oklahoma State Cowboys this weekend, where they are expected to lose by 11.5 with a bye week directly after that. The circumstances surrounding other teams allowed a quality, 2nd tier Big 12 team into the top 20. Just ask Kansas State how long that lasted.
№20 Florida is in a similar position as №16 TCU. Through three quarters of the daytime marquee game, talk on the internet started up about how neither Florida nor Tennessee should remain in the top 25 no matter who ended up winning the game. I am thoroughly in that camp, but AP voters like winners and Florida was able to win on a last-second heave into the end zone to not only win, but cover. After such a disappointing game, voters seem to have quietly moved on and continued their blue blood preference, sliding Florida up past №21 South Florida. Having watched both teams played twice now I feel confident in saying that while neither team in particularly disciplined, South Florida deserves slightly more respect from voters than a sloppy Florida team. The Gators face a tough Kentucky team on the road next week, where the Wildcats played them close a couple seasons ago (Florida won 14–9 in ‘15).
Biggest Moves Down: №25 LSU (Down 13 spots), №19 Louisville (Down 5 spots), NR Kansas State (Out of the Poll after being №18 LW)
Starting with №25 LSU, it feels like the Tigers are lucky to remain ranked this week. A devastating loss, 37–7 to an unranked opponent, even on the road is enough to derail a season. There are a few saving graces for LSU though. First, they get five straight games where they might be able to climb back up the rankings (Syracuse, Troy, at Florida, Auburn, at Ole Miss). That definitely is not an easy stretch, but for a team that was many commentators dark horse playoff team, winning those five in a row before their match up with Alabama on Nov. 4th would go a long way to restoring some of their credibility. Second, LSU gets to remain in the national conversation in the way that Tennessee or Kansas State don’t get to by dropping from the rankings. Staying on people minds and on their TVs is a big way to move back up. I certainly have been high on the Tigers this season; I had them as the 10th best team in the country just last week. I think getting CB Arden Key back in shape and back to where his potential should take him will be key, but I wouldn’t count out a challenge in the SEC West from LSU this season.
A top 15 team losing at home by a score of 47–21 would normally cause more of a tumble down the polls than only the five spots that №19 Louisville dropped this week. The drop being so small shows me that the voters have two things in mind with this Louisville team. First, that no team with Lamar Jackson as its QB should really be left out of the top 25 teams in the country. Second, that №2 Clemson is dominating on defense and the big win is more a reflection of Clemson’s greatness than Louisville’s weakness. All that being said, I have major doubts about the Cardinal’s defense going forward. Kelly Bryant, despite the assurances from DeShaun Watson, is probably not going to go down as the best QB in Clemson history. Throwing for 300+ yards while also rushing for nearly 300 more is pretty impressive against a ranked team, but it also is significantly above average for Clemson over recent years. They’ve only averaged 300+ yards passing over a season 3 of the last 6 years and over 200 yards rushing once in the same span. All this to say; Louisville’s QB may be exceptional, but just like last year their defense will be the reason they drop out of playoff contention. The Cardinals have two easy teams these next two weeks (home vs Kent State and Murray State) but then start a tough stretch (at NC State on a Thursday, Boston College, at Florida State, at Wake Forest). Only Boston College doesn’t know how to score amongst those four, but we’re only one season removed from it being a close, low scoring game (Louisville won 17–14 vs BC in ‘15). The reserved optimism I have for LSU is matched by the noticeable doubt I have in Louisville.
I was so excited for another run of ranked Kansas State teams with a white QB that runs headfirst into goal line plays and takes what feels like an hour to march the offense down the field. Jesse Ertz was another in a long line of Collin Klein types. But we know how it goes. Another 8–9 win season for the oldest man on the sidelines Bill Snyder. Nothing will change in Manhattan for the Wildcats, as they take the bye week to recover and prep for a bad Baylor team. I think their ranked days of 2017 are over, with TCU and Oklahoma in back to back weeks and at Oklahoma State as their second to last game of the season. Certainly a potential spoiler in the Big 12 race for either Oklahoma team, we’ll say goodbye to the Wildcats until they get into a relatively good bowl game and we all look and say, “Oh right, I forgot about Kansas State. They could sneak up and win this game.”
My Biggest Issue with this Week’s Poll: Are we sure №4 Penn State and №5 USC REALLY that good?
I know that they played a classic in last year’s Rose Bowl. I know they both have extremely talented players on their teams. I know Sam Darnold and Saquon Barkley may end up in New York for the Heisman Ceremony. I know it’s a lot of fun to have traditional powerhouses relevant again and to watch big games in Happy Valley and the Coliseum.
I also watched a Nittany Lions team with revenge in mind barely get over 300 yards of offense against an average Pitt team, only to see that Pitt team get blown off the field by Oklahoma State. I watched the Trojans go to double overtime and account for only 71 yards rushing against Texas. A team that may well be better than we thought, but still a team that only two weeks ago let up over 250 yards rushing to Maryland.
While Penn State may have a lot of talent, this is a team that is barely back in the top 25. Last season was the first time they were ranked since 2011 and I think voters see the talent, the upset of Ohio State last year and think that the Penn State of old, the Penn State of College Football History is back to it’s rightful place at the upper level of teams in the country. Perhaps they’ve been a bit too hasty. Penn State is good for sure, but there is a very real possibility that they could lose 3 games in the regular season this year. This week they travel to Iowa, never an easy road game as the Hawkeyes are 11–3 over the last two seasons at home. I think the narrative has gotten a bit out ahead of the reality and Penn State has to overachieve to reach the heights that the AP voters have set for them.
With USC, the picture the voters were trying to paint is a bit clearer, but not by much. A school with a history of attracting enough talent to garner 10-win potential, especially before the season, plus a potential Heisman/№1 Draft Pick at QB looks to make the Trojans an elite school just like when Pete Carroll was there. USC has still been able to win games, but massive turnover in the coaching staff has led to dysfunction that is often blamed by the media for causing less than ideal seasons. Same with Penn State, it’s a lot of fun for USC to be ranked high, playing important night games with national title implications. But throwing a top 5 ranking on them implies that the voters think they can compete for a national title and we just saw them barely win at home against a team that got ZERO votes to be the in the top 25 the past two weeks. Do the voters really think they stand a better chance against Alabama or Clemson than Oklahoma State or Wisconsin? I think the nostalgic vote for USC and Penn State are driving their stay at the top of the rankings. It certainly would not surprise me if the CFB Playoff Committee has both of these teams ranked lower than the media when the first set of playoff rankings come out in early November.
My picks this past weekend went about as well as one might expect from a chaotic slate of results, which means I need to make some ground this week. Look for a picks column on Thursday afternoon at the latest. My record so far: Last week 19–28–2, overall: 46–49–2 (6–6 in highlighted games)
My Top Ten:
№1 Alabama
№2 Oklahoma
№3 Clemson
№4 Oklahoma State
№5 Wisconsin
№6 Washington
№7 Penn State
№8 USC
№9 Michigan
№10 Georgia