Market Pulse: Futures Mixed Ahead of Key Jobs Data | June 3, 2024

Stock index futures are mixed as investors focus on upcoming jobs data after the PCE report matched expectations last Friday. S&P 500 futures are up 0.3%, Nasdaq 100 futures have risen 0.5%, while Dow futures are down 0.1%. The 10-year Treasury yield decreased slightly to 4.48%, and the 2-year yield remains at 4.88%.

Markets ended higher on Friday, spurred by a late rally and data suggesting a weakening US consumer, raising hopes for rate cuts. Core PCE numbers are improving, but more progress is needed for rate cuts to happen. The PCE inflation data has increased expectations for rate cuts this year despite weak personal spending.

Attention now shifts to the April JOLTS job openings report and May non-farm payrolls data due this week. Today’s calendar includes the May PMI manufacturing index, expected to rise to 50.9, and the May ISM manufacturing PMI index, forecasted to increase to 49.8. The slight uptick in the ISM index does not indicate a sector recovery, as manufacturing still struggles with high interest rates and low external demand. April construction spending, expected to show a 0.2% monthly growth, is also due.

The mixed futures performance reflects investor caution ahead of key economic data. Gains in S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures suggest some optimism, while the Dow futures decline indicates sector concerns or a conservative outlook. The slight drop in the 10-year Treasury yield shows a cautious bond market, while the stable 2-year yield reflects uncertainty about the Federal Reserve’s short-term policy.

Investors should watch the upcoming jobs data closely, as it could impact market sentiment and influence the Federal Reserve’s decisions. The manufacturing sector remains under pressure, affecting related stocks. Staying informed on these indicators is crucial for making smart trading and investment choices this week.