The School of Hard Knocks, and a Potential Trade for the Valedictorian

I’m going to give you a list of sluggers, and you tell me which one has created the most hard contact in 2017.
Aaron Judge. Giancarlo Stanton. Paul Goldschmidt. Miguel Sano.
Your answer?
That’s right, it’s…oh, wait, it’s actually Alex Avila.
Yes, in the year of the Judge/Stanton HR feud, the Bour derby performance, the Eric “Korean God” Thames awe and more, Avila is on pace to have the third most-consistently hard hit season since 2000.
I knew something was going on when I saw his .481 SLG so far this year. If it were to hold up, it would be the highest for Avila since 2011, when he earned his sole All-Star and Silver Slugger titles and posted a 4.6 WAR.
But his hard contact rate this year is unbelievable: 50.4%.
And if you watch him swing the bat— so easily and naturally — you can tell he’s hitting the sweet spot this year.
Among catchers this year, it’s the highest by about 10%. But historically, it’s even more exceptional.
The only player to best that percentage since 2000 with at least 200 PA is Ryan Howard, twice (55.9% in 2007, 50.9% in 2005).
Oh, not to mention, he has the lowest soft-contact rate in the same range at 4.4%. Next in line: 2006 Barry Bonds (4.7%).
The year of the hot ball was expected to bring a lot of names up to the top of this leaderboard: Corey Seager, Aaron Judge, Paul Goldschmidt, J.D. Martinez and Nick Castellanos.
(Sidenote: three current DET players are in the top 10. Meowww…)
But I think few expected Avila to best those names.
The Avila hard-contact observation isn’t just cool. It’s also a timely observation.
Right now, in the last few days before the trade deadline, the buyer’s market for catchers is fairly hot compared to other position players. The D-backs aren’t set on Jeff Mathis (.213 AVG/.612 OPS). The Cubs apparently want solid help for Wilson Contreras, who can play left field when not behind the plate. The Rockies recently seem hesitant to let Tony Wolters, who made his MLB debut last year, start after two hits in a 14 game stretch , and currently play veteran Ryan Hanigan, who is 3-for-22 in the playoffs. So they’ve scouted Avila as well.
To be fair, It’s not like Avila is dominating pitchers with his bat. He has 11 HR in 75 games and is batting .276. These are great numbers for him, but fairly average in the grand scheme of all batters.
But 22 of his 59 hits have been for extra bases, he grounds into few double plays, and his plate discipline is good, leading to a .398 OBP, putting him 2nd this season among catchers with >200 PA (behind Buster Posey at .413).
And it doesn’t seem like any catchers are up to the task of being anywhere near consistent at the plate this year. Only 4 catchers are batting above .300: Buster Posey, J.T. Realmuto, Manny Pina (who woulda thought that?), and Tyler Flowers.
All of them catchers who are not up for sale, according to the most recent reports.
So if one of the playoff contenders has the money or prospects (sorry D-backs) to take on the task of getting Avila, they’ll be getting most likely the best catcher this year’s deadline has to offer.
Included in the deal: a healthy serving of hard knocks.
