NFL Picks: Week 1
Last year I tweeted out my weekly NFL picks (tweet thread at bottom) and enjoyed some beginner’s luck. 44–26, +22.00 in the regular season, and 2–2 -1.00 in the postseason.
I’ve decided to continue it this year, and will expound upon my picks in a weekly post in addition to tweeting them out.
Ground rules: Different picks may have different allocations denoted by (1*, 2*, 0.5* etc.). I will not pick a set number of games each week as it depends on where I feel there is value in a given week. I will mainly pick games, with the occasional o/u or prop.
Now on to the picks…
Week 1 Picks (home teams in CAPS)
2* Arizona Cardinals (-125 ML) vs. DETROIT LIONS
The Lions are prime regression candidate in 2017 after sneaking into the playoffs last year boosted by an easy schedule and success in close games. After finishing dead last in pass defense DVOA last year, they face a healthy Cardinals attack that is sure to air it out. Stafford had an enormously successful offseason ($135M), but gets off to a rough start against Patrick Peterson and an Arizona defense that ranked 3rd in DVOA.
1* CHICAGO BEARS (+6.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons
The Glennonssaince! Is not actually something I’m buying, but I am buying the hangover effect for a Falcons team coming off the worst collapse in Super Bowl history and playing their first game with a new OC. I fully expect the Falcons to win this game, but believe the Bears will keep it close enough at home to cover.
1* CLEVELAND BROWNS(+9) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
A brief and recent history of rookie quarterbacks against the spread Week 1:
2016: 1–1: Wentz (W), Prescott (L)
2015: 1–1: Mariota and Winston faced off Week 1, so a win was guaranteed.
2014: 1–0, Carr
2013: 2–0, Geno Smith + EJ Manuel (!!)
Would you have guessed rookie QBs are 5–2 ATS in season openers? Now this pick is as much about Ben Roethlisberger’s well documented road struggles as it is about Deshone Kizer or flukey rookie QB success in Week 1. Ben’s Home/Road splits in 2016:
Would I recommend taking the Browns in your survivor pool? Absolutely not. But I don’t see the Steelers covering 9 on the road.
1* Oakland Raiders (+2.5) vs. TENNESSEE TITANS
Avoid a west coast team traveling east…right? Wrong. From 2013–2016, west coast teams were 31–23 in 1pm games in the eastern + central time zones.
I like the Raiders here and think there’s value in the Titans being an offseason bandwagon team and public darling.
0.5* Falcons/Bears under 48.5
See Mike Glennon and new OC for Falcons
0.5* Seahawks/Packers under 51
Week 1 o/u tend to be set 2–3 points too high, with Seahawks/Packers being one of the highest this week, I like the under.
Last Year’s thread:
Disclaimer: this is just for FUN.
