NFL Picks Week 2
Welcome back readers! All 13 of you. This is the best kept secret on the web thus far, dishing out winners and insight, so consider yourselves lucky to be a part of such a tight knit community. 5–1 last week (+1.75). Quick recap of last week before moving on to the picks for Week 2.
Week 1 Recap (5–1, +1.75)
2* Arizona Cardinals (-125 ML) vs. DETROIT LIONS (L)
Preseason: Carson Palmer is primed for a rebound season!
Halftime of Week 1: Are we sure Carson Palmer isn’t totally washed?
The lone loser last week and a game that had far-reaching consequences (see: David Johnson ADP), the Cardinals and more specifically Palmer, looked completely inept on offense.
1* CHICAGO BEARS (+6.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons (W)
1* CLEVELAND BROWNS(+9) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (W)
Don’t be afraid to take “bad” teams! Despite sporting the 2nd and 4th worst season long o/u, the Bears and Browns both took care of business against the spread in Week 1. Add Deshone Kizer to the now 6–2 record of Week 1 rookie QB starters ATS since 2013. The Bears looked quite impressive with a chance to win outright…more on this later.
1* Oakland Raiders (+2.5) vs. TENNESSEE TITANS (W)
0.5* Falcons/Bears under 48.5 (W)
0.5* Seahawks/Packers under 51 (W)
Not much to add here. The trend of early season unders continued. Don’t be afraid of the West Coast team going east.
Week 2 Picks (HOME team in CAPS)
There is a major Week 2 trend that I love every year but is dependent on Week 1 results and the NFL schedule makers to take advantage of. Luckily this year we’re blessed with 4 games that feature a matchup where both teams are coming off a Week 1 loss. Hammer those dawgs! More on the data and rationale below —
Since the 2007 season, there have been 30 matchups in Week 2 of teams that are 0–1… and the underdogs are 22–8 (73.3%) ATS!! Below are the 4 matchups this week (woof! woof!)
1* Houston Texans (+6.5) vs. CINCINNATI BENGALS
Both teams looked atrocious. Line is just simply too high.
1* INDINAPOLIS COLTS (+7) vs Arizona Cardinals
Both teams looked atrocious…line is just simply too high.
1* NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (+5.5) vs. New England Patriots
2 reasons I love the Saints besides the Week 2 trend:
Fade the public! Patriots are currently the most loved public team this week (69% of bets).
The Saints are 22–10 as home underdogs coming off a loss since 2007
1* San Francisco 49ers (+14) vs. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
The spread is too damn high!
1* Chicago Bears (+7) vs. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
The Bears looked damn impressive in Week 1! Forget covering, they were a Jordan Howard dropped pass away from winning outright against the defending NFC Champions.
Not to mention one of my favorite obscure trends — The Hard Knocks Overreaction! The past 11 teams featured on Hard Knocks are 3–7–1 ATS in their opening games.
Give me the Bears and Rabbi Tarik Cohen +7
Disclaimer: this is just for FUN.