MLB: Assessing Red Sox Offseason Moves — Part III (Starting Pitching)
Welcome to the third installment of my series looking back on the offseason moves for the Boston Red Sox as they prepare for 2023. So far I’ve covered these areas: the Rafael Devers extension, the outfield situation, shortstop and DH.
Today’s post is a look at their approach to fixing a beleaguered 2022 starting pitching rotation. As the 2022 season was ending, I looked at this in two different posts: in-house options and external options.
As a reminder, I compiled all of those offseason outlook posts from the fall in this Offseason Primer post I put up after the World Series.
Part 5: Starting Pitching (In-House Options)
Before diving into what the team actually did, let’s go over an observation I made at the start of the aforementioned in-house options post.
Under Chaim Bloom the Red Sox had previously shown a lack of desire to spend a large acquisition cost to bring pitching into the organization. You can go back to the link above and read my whole rationale and evidence for that statement. But at all levels, the Sox had not shown willingness to either spend big dollars or trade major assets to acquire pitching since 2019.
Now that the offseason is basically done, we can say this philosophy has persisted at least when it comes to starting pitching — although that may not have been the plan originally. I’ll get into some of those thwarted plans in the external options section.
When some of those plans to add from the outside dried up, they pivoted to spending big on the bullpen (which I will discuss in my next offseason look-back post) and relied mostly on in-house options to fill out the rotation for 2023.
Every Sox pitcher I discussed from Sept. 27 of last year remains in the organization as of this writing except for Connor Seabold, who was DFA’d and then traded to Colorado. The rest stayed, including James Paxton who exercised his $4M player option.
So they’re all here, they’re all theoretically in the mix for rotation spots, and most critically, they’re all healthy as of this writing.
[UPDATE, FEB 17 @ 12PM: Of course I had to open my big mouth here! Nick Pivetta is recovering from COVID and appeared to cut his throwing session short today, but Alex Cora said he’s fine. Of potentially bigger concern: Brayan Bello felt forearm soreness and has been shut down from throwing for a few days. This could potentially not be a big deal, and Cora didn’t sound too concerned, but worth monitoring.]
On a team full of X-factors, Chris Sale is possibly the biggest. For the first time since 2019, he’s arrived in spring training healthy and on track for the season. He almost certainly will take the ball on March 30 if he’s still healthy then.
When I think about Sale and who he can still be, I go back to that momentary blip in the 2021 postseason when he reminded everyone he was still Chris Fucking Sale. I badly want that guy back, and so does he.
Speaking of guys coming back from injury, the Sox are fully committed to giving Garrett Whitlock a chance to be in the rotation after dilly-dallying with him in that role in 2022. He had hip surgery in September and appears fully recovered after a winter preparing to be a starter.
The Sox would be doing themselves a disservice if they didn’t give Whitlock an honest shot at starting. He has three MLB pitches and has shown the ability to maintain his stuff into the 5th and 6th innings of work. At his best, Whitlock can be a #3 starter in a good MLB rotation. That’s hugely valuable, especially at his team-friendly salary.
If he fails this year, then put him back in the bullpen for good. It would just be really unfortunate to waste Whitlock’s talent out there if they never find out for sure he can be a starter.
Brayan Bello is the wunderkind, the best promise of a homegrown starting pitcher the Sox have had in a very long time. His stuff is outstanding across the board, he has a presence and swagger on the mound, and he gives people a reason to watch.
It’s possible Bello starts the year piggybacking another starter in an effort to keep his innings down, but what he showed the final month of 2022 was beyond exciting.
Additionally, a certain very good instructor worked with Bello this winter, which should terrify the rest of MLB:
Nick Pivetta is still here too, and while he was a below league average starter in 2022, he still took the ball every fifth day and wound up at a tick under 180 IP. There’s value in that no matter what, and if Pivetta is your 5th starter you’ll take it. He could be trade bait, but he may have more value to the Red Sox than other clubs.
Paxton sticking around for $4M may end up being one of the best things to happen to the Sox for the winter if they can get anything out of him. Like Sale, he’s healthy for the first time in a while. From my post from September, here’s a reminder why the Sox invested in him:
When healthy, Paxton was one of the most dominant swing-and-miss pitchers in MLB from 2017 through 2019. If you factor in all of his work from 2017 through 2021, he had a sterling 11.1 K per 9 IP, 2.7 BB per 9 IP, 3.69 ERA, 3.30 FIP and a 115 ERA+.
Bloom’s comments indicate Paxton will likely not be asked to work out of the bullpen after never doing it in his career to this point. He also needs to show he can handle a starter’s workload after so much time away. Having Bello or maybe Whitlock piggyback off him would make sense early in the season if everyone is healthy.
The Sox have built a lot of depth beyond those guys, too. Tanner Houck is coming off a major back surgery and while he’s also prepared to be a starter, his lack of a third pitch and inability to get lefties out still means he’s ticketed for the bullpen. His name was mentioned in trade talks during the winter, which is something to watch going forward.
Kutter Crawford could make the team as the long guy in the bullpen, if not he’s depth at AAA. Same with Josh Winckowski. Top starter prospects Bryan Mata, Chris Murphy and Brandon Walter are likely going to AAA to headline what should be a strong, deep rotation for Worcester.
Overall, I’m glad the Sox maintained their starter depth. The old adage of never having enough pitching is true, especially with the rate at which pitchers are injured today. This group doesn’t exactly knock your socks off, but there’s upside with many guys and we could feel very differently about it at the end of the season.
Part 6: Starting Pitching (Free Agents & Trades)
In my external options post, I went through a ton of possible names the Sox could consider to upgrade their rotation, both through free agency and trades. The only one they actually added was someone I mentioned in passing: Corey Kluber.
I wrote a lot about Kluber and the re-making of the Sox pitching staff here. Kluber is a Bostonian by marriage, raising his family in Winchester. The Sox and Kluber had circled each other for years and they finally matched up on a deal in December.
After several years dealing with serious injuries, Kluber finally pitched a full season in 2022 with 164 IP for the Rays — which would’ve been good for 2nd on the Sox. Kluber isn’t the world-beating ace he was in the mid-2010s and gets by with pinpoint control and inducing weak contact now.
He should be a reliable member of the rotation, and I’m most excited for the example he’ll set for the younger guys like Bello and Whitlock.
But, I can’t help but feel a little disappointed in how the overall pursuit of starting pitching played out this winter. As I noted in the Kluber piece: Out of 15 AL teams in 2022, the Sox finished 14th in ERA, hits, runs, and earned runs, 13th in HRs allowed, and 11th in walks.
There’s absolutely no question the Sox made significant gains in the bullpen, as I will discuss next time. But, the rotation is entirely made of question marks. They could all work out. They could also all struggle, although the team has built a decent reservoir of depth to withstand issues that could crop up.
Despite this, had the Sox acquired some of their initial free agent starting pitching targets, those “question mark” feelings would persist. They made a multi-year offer to retain Nathan Eovaldi, who only threw 109.1 IP in 2022 due to several injuries and lost velocity on his fastball. When his agents balked at the initial offer, the Sox moved on to other business. He ended up reportedly taking less total money from his hometown Rangers.
We also know the Sox made a three-year, $40M offer to Zach Eflin, who himself only threw 75.2 IP in 2022 due to recurring knee problems. Eflin’s agent used that offer as leverage to get the same offer from the Rays so Eflin could go home to Florida.
When Eflin spurned the Sox, they turned to Andrew Heaney and made him a two-year offer at more than $25M guaranteed. Heaney, who is absolutely filthy when healthy, threw even fewer innings in 2022 than Eflin — 72.2 IP — with a shoulder problem. But like Eflin, Heaney elected to sign closer to his home in Oklahoma by accepting a smaller guarantee from the Rangers.
After Heaney said no, it appears the team pivoted to big bullpen additions until signing Kluber. As best we can tell, the Sox never seriously pursued any top free agent starting pitchers, whether they had the qualifying offer attached (Carlos Rodon, Chris Bassitt or Jacob deGrom) or not (Justin Verlander).
They also were unable to complete a trade for starting pitching in a winter where completing trades across baseball was akin to solving a Rubik’s cube. Bloom spoke on several occasions about the team’s openness to adding starting pitching via trade and, in particular, ones that could be controlled for a while. There was smoke all winter about a potential match with the Marlins, who remain steeped in young pitching (including Edward Cabrera, Jesus Luzardo and Trevor Rogers). The teams did make a deal swapping relievers I’ll talk about next time, but nothing involving starters.
A deal there likely never happened because the Sox have no desire to move Triston Casas and seem unlikely to deal Ceddanne Rafaela. I would not rule out the teams matching up in the future if the young position player depth on the Sox side (think guys like Nick Yorke, Mikey Romero, Eddinson Paulino, Blaze Jordan and Matthew Lugo) continues to develop.
Those prospects being far from MLB-ready was probably the contributing factor to the Sox being unable to complete any big trade this offseason, as report after report indicated teams wanted MLB-ready talent in trades involving current big leaguers.
So, the Sox chose to keep their powder dry for a big starting pitching arm this offseason, and mostly continue their trend of not spending big acquisition costs on starting pitching. It’s frustrating, but the logic is understandable given the options and the holes the team needed to fill across the entire roster.
Will their approach to pitching acquisition cost change soon? Maybe, especially after 2024, when the Sox will have a ton of money coming off the books for this free agent class:
In the meantime, the Sox will try to make due with who they have — a talented group, one they could add to during the season if they feel the desire to do so. But, it’s still one I wish I could feel a little better about as the team aspires to get back to the postseason in 2023.
Next time I’ll wrap up this offseason look-back by addressing the bullpen changes and the catching situation.
