MLB: Red Sox Upcoming Offseason — Part 7: Bullpen
We’ve finally arrived at my final installment of the Boston Red Sox offseason preview! Throw a parade!
Of all the many things that went wrong with the 2022 Red Sox, what went most predictably wrong from the outset was the undermanned and overmatched bullpen. Chaim Bloom elected to re-sign Hansel Robles, bring in lefties Jake Diekman and Matt Strahm, and then just roll with who was left over from 2021.
That was never going to be enough for a team trying to contend. There was a lot of “let’s hope this works” and almost none of it worked. The Sox have cycled through so many guys and so few were been good for anything longer than a few games.
The one who ended up having the best season of all didn’t even get called up until April 27. John Schreiber, whom Bloom picked up off the scrap heap from Detroit before the 2021 season, is the exact kind of cheap bullpen find you need for a successful team these days.
Schreiber got worked very hard because of his consistency, and he faltered down the stretch. But since he arrived, he’s been the only guy Alex Cora could fully rely on to get outs in big spots.
What’s kind of wild is Schreiber was never really the closer this year, but he currently is tied with Tanner Houck for the most saves on the team with 8 (all stats in this post are current through Oct. 1). I wrote about the bullpen in my season assessment posts, and noted that when Houck was healthy and the clear closer, that was when things were going the best for the bullpen. But that was fleeting.
I also registered my disappointment on how many veteran relievers were allowed to get completely torched game after game while able replacements threw in Portland and Worcester. Some of those guys, like Zack Kelly and Franklin German, finally got a shot late in the season.
But it was too little, too late, and I genuinely hope the front office and pitching coaching/development staff take a long look at the roster management process for the 2022 bullpen, and will figure out how to do better in 2023 and beyond.
It will not be an easy path. You figure given current roster construction norms, the Sox will need eight guys for the 2023 Opening Day bullpen. Schreiber is one of them. Matt Barnes, who has a 1.74 ERA since coming back from the IL in early August despite some issues keeping guys off base (a .316 BABIP may be partially to blame), is another. I believe Garrett Whitlock will be in the rotation, but Houck, if he comes back healthy from his back surgery, should stay in the bullpen.
That’s only three guys who safely have bullpen spots for next year. Kelly and German should both come to spring training with the opportunity to win spots, but they’re going to have to show it. It’s also possible, pending other starting pitching moves and health, that one of Kutter Crawford, Connor Seabold or Josh Winckowski will hold down a long man spot out there. My guess is it’s going to be Crawford as long as he’s not needed in the rotation.
The Red Sox must think bigger than current roster-dwellers Ryan Brasier, Kaleb Ort, Tyler Danish and Eduard Bazardo for what they need.
That means bringing in at least four relievers for open bullpen spots, and two of them need to be left-handed. A return engagement with Matt Strahm is on the table, and he was having a very strong year statistically until giving up runs in each of his last four outings.
It’s worth noting the Red Sox ended up missing Josh Taylor in 2022 more than has been discussed. Taylor had the second-most appearances on the Red Sox staff in 2021 with 61. He held lefties to a .146 BAA and didn’t give up a HR to any of them. He missed the entire season due to recurring back issues despite going on a rehab assignment mid-year and throwing bullpens as late as August.
Taylor will be arbitration-eligible this winter. The Red Sox may non-tender him and try to re-sign him at a lower number, but that depends entirely on the condition of his back. It’s really too bad, because he was on a positive career trajectory before the injury. He can’t be penciled in for next year’s bullpen at this point. Relatedly, lefty Darwinzon Hernandez has shown absolutely nothing to indicate he deserves a spot either.
The Red Sox need to go out this winter and, via either trade or free agency, add at least one end-of-the-game relief ace type who Cora can feel good about getting big outs. I’m not saying someone who will definitely close, but someone capable of closing for a championship-level team. Getting a couple of those guys would be amazing, but one would be a good start.
I’m going to mention a few free agent RHPs here, then a few free agent LHPs, followed by a few possible trade options.
I’ll start by briefly saying that I don’t think there’s any chance the Sox bid on the clear best reliever on the market this winter, Edwin Diaz. The Mets likely will give him a qualifying offer and throw the bag at him anyway, but there’s nothing in Bloom’s track record to suggest throwing top dollar at a closer is possible.
Rafael Montero
Here’s my favorite candidate as a late-inning add for the Red Sox bullpen that will only cost money. Montero was the closer briefly for the Mariners in 2021 but imploded horribly with a 7.27 ERA in 43.1 IP. He was part of the controversial deadline trade that sent him and Kendall Graveman to the Astros for Joe Smith and Abraham Toro. He only made four appearances with the Astros before going down with a shoulder injury.
It’s been a completely different Montero in 2022, and the Astros have taken advantage as part of their outstanding season. He’s got a 2.39 ERA with 73 Ks, 18 BBs and 3 HRs allowed in 67.2 IP to go with 14 saves in 16 chances. Everything Montero throws is hard: a fastball that averages 96 mph, a changeup at 91 and a slider at 88.
His advanced metrics are similarly strong: per Statcast, he’s in the 98th percentile in barrel%, 94th in xSLG, 93rd in average exit velo, 91st in hard hit% and xERA/xwOBA, 86th in xBA and 76th in K%. His 39th-percentile ranking in BB% is something to watch.
Ryan Pressly is entrenched as the closer in Houston and the Astros have him under team control for three more years. Montero will likely look for a closer opportunity elsewhere, and given that he turns 32 this month and doesn’t have a long track record of success, he may be willing to take a two-to-three year deal for a back-end bullpen role. The Red Sox should come calling.
Kenley Jansen
One of the biggest surprises of this past offseason came when the Dodgers allowed their longtime closer, whom they originally signed as a 17-year-old catcher out of Curaçao way back in 2004, to flee for a one-year deal with the World Series champion Braves.
While Jansen has not been as good this year as he was the previous two with Los Angeles, he still has 40 saves, a 3.43 ERA, a 3.27 FIP and nearly 12 K/9 in 63 IP for the Braves as they prepare for another long postseason run.
The Statcast numbers are also really good: 98th percentile in xBA, 96th in xERA/xwOBA, 93rd in K%, 92nd in xSLG, 88th in hard hit% and 80th in average exit velocity. Like Montero, his BB% is in the 39th percentile and is something to monitor.
Jansen just turned 35 and has more postseason experience than any reliever who might be available this winter. The Braves will likely want him back, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Dodgers make another run at him. But the Red Sox should be in the mix.
David Roberston
After suffering a setback in 2020 during his recovery from Tommy John surgery, Robertson’s career appeared to be pretty much over. But he kept working, and even pitched in an amateur men’s league in Newport, Rhode Island, not far from where he’d settled his family in Barrington.
After signing with an independent league and pitching for the US in the Olympics in Japan, Robertson took an MLB deal with the Rays for the rest of 2021, signed with the Cubs in the offseason, and was traded to the Phillies at the deadline.
Robertson isn’t the same guy who setup for Mariano Rivera on the Yankees 2009 World Series title team, but he’s still effective: he’s 98th percentile in xBA, 91st in xSLG, 91st in K%, 89th in whiff% and 81st in xERA/xwOBA. There is some cause for concern: he’s in the 40th-percentile range in all the contact categories, and is way down in the 2nd percentile of BB%. He’ll be 38 next year and very few 38-year-old relievers have no flaws.
If other options fall apart for the Red Sox, perhaps Robertson would be willing to take a short-term deal from the team closest to home.
Chris Martin
This one surprised me a little bit when looking at potential free agents. Martin, whom the Red Sox signed in 2011 as a minor league free agent and eventually traded to Colorado, was moved from the Cubs to the Dodgers at the deadline and has been superb for them.
Since the trade, he has 31 Ks vs. just 1 BB and 1 HR in 23.1 IP, locking down two saves in the process as they have an unsettled closer situation.
Statcast has good things to say about his numbers: he’s 100th percentile (meaning no one is better among all MLB pitchers) in BB%, 92nd in K% and xERA/xwOBA, 73rd in xBA and 67th in xSLG. The hard hit% (21st) and barrel% (31st) aren’t amazing, and his .204 BABIP might not be sustainable, but he’s been effective when limiting contact.
He turns 37 midway through next season and the Red Sox could do worse when it comes to filling out their bullpen slots.
Adam Ottavino
It kinda hurts to see Ottavino doing so well this year for the Mets after he was just OK for the Red Sox in 2021. Ottavino has pitched about the same number of innings as last year, but he’s cut down his walks significantly (12.7% BB rate in 2021, 6% in 2022), increased his strikeouts (25.7% K rate a year ago, 30.6% this year), and dropped his batting average against (.239 then, .209 now).
His excellent year has been backed up by Statcast: 99th percentile in average exit velo, 97th in xERA/xwOBA and barrel%, 96th in xSLG and hard hit%, 92nd in xBA, 89th in K%, 79th in BB%.
I believe Ottavino enjoyed his time in Boston, he went to college at Northeastern and is a Northeast guy in general. So, if they can agree to a deal this time, Ottavino would be a very good fit for the Red Sox going into his age-37 season.
Now let’s look at some free agent LHP relievers.
Matt Moore
How is this guy only 33? Feels like he’s been around forever. He missed nearly two full years before signing with Philadelphia last season and was fairly unimpressive. For 2022 he signed on for a full-time bullpen role with the Rangers. The results should lead to him getting a nice contract somewhere this winter, possibly Boston.
He’s got an even 2 ERA in 72 IP with 80 Ks, 37 BBs and just 3 HRs allowed. He has a bit of a reverse split, with lefties hitting .243 against him versus .170 for righties.
Statcast is mostly generous to him, he’s in the 93rd percentile in xBA and xSLG, 91st in hard hit %, 89th in barrel %, 85th in xERA/xwOBA, 65th in average exit velo. He’s just in the 4th percentile for BB%, which isn’t ideal.
Will Smith
Smith closed for the Braves during their World Series run, during which he threw 11 scoreless postseason innings. This year the Braves felt it necessary to trade him to Houston for starting pitching depth.
He’s been pretty average in the last guaranteed year of the big contract he signed with Atlanta before 2020. He has a 101 ERA+, 4.03 ERA, 62:25 K:BB in 58 IP. The Statcast numbers aren’t great: 74th percentile in barrel%, 69th in xBA, 65th in xSLG, 61st in K%, and he’s down at 44th in average exit velocity and 24th in both BB% and hard hit%.
He has a $13M team option that seems unlikely to be picked up, with a $1M buyout more likely. Smith won’t turn 34 until midway through next season and could take a short-term deal to re-establish some value.
Andrew Chafin
Chafin holds a $6.5M player option for 2023 and could exercise it if he really wants to stay in Detroit. He indicated around the trade deadline he does, but things aren’t exactly great there, and he might want the opportunity to win elsewhere.
If he’s a free agent, the Red Sox may consider him for a lefty role in the bullpen. He’s got 64 Ks and 18 BBs with 5 HRs in 56 IP to go with a 2.89 ERA, 3.11 FIP and 133 ERA+.
The Statcast metrics are solid too: 92nd percentile in chase rate, 86th percentile in xBA and whiff %, 85th in xSLG, 84th in xERA/xwOBA, 75th in K%. Chafin also has a reverse platoon split. He’ll be 33 during next season.
I don’t have much of a feel for who exactly will be available for trade for relievers this winter, but here are some possibilities:
Alexis Diaz
Diaz opened the season as a 25-year-old rookie and has gotten save opportunities since about mid-May for a truly bad Reds team. His fastball-slider mix has been very effective over 61.1 IP.
On the year, he’s got nearly 12 Ks per 9 IP, an outstanding 255 ERA+, a 1.76 ERA and 81:31 K:BB. Statcast mostly loves him: 99th percentile in xBA, 97th in whiff %, 96th in xSLG, 94th in K%, 89th in xERA/xwOBA, 87th in average exit velo, 85th in hard hit%. Walks are a problem for Diaz, as he’s in the bottom 3% of all pitchers in BB%.
He’ll have five years of team control left after 2022 and probably would not come cheaply in a trade, but the Reds aren’t going anywhere and might consider moving on from Diaz while his value is high.
Scott Barlow
I mentioned in the last piece that KC has a new GM, and it’s hard to say what their attitude will be around keeping someone like Barlow, who’s established himself as a good closer over the last couple of seasons.
In 73.1 IP this year, Barlow has a 2.21 ERA, 186 ERA+, 76:22 K:BB and 1.009 WHIP. Some of his peripherals are a bit down from 2021: his BABIP is lower, his FIP is higher, and he’s striking out guys at a lower rate. Still, he’s in the 97th percentile for chase rate, 95th percentile in hard hit%, 90th in average exit velo, 89th in whiff%, 88th in xBA, 83rd in xERA/xwOBA, 75th in xSLG, 72nd in K%.
Barlow turns 30 this winter and has just two years left before free agency. If they don’t plan to extend him, this is probably the right time to trade him, and the Red Sox should have interest.
James Karinchak/Trevor Stephan
The Guardians have Emmanuel Clase entrenched as their closer, and he’s one of the best in the business. It could be worth inquiring, then, on their two excellent righty setup men in Karinchak or Stephan.
Karinchak, who attended Bryant University, missed time at the beginning of the year with shoulder trouble and doesn’t qualify for most Statcast metrics. He has a 1.89 ERA, 203 ERA+, 14.2 K/9 and 2.38 FIP in 38 IP. His 13.5% BB rate is a tad high. He just turned 27 and is under team control through 2026.
As for Stephan, his Statcast numbers are great through 62.2 IP this year. He’s 98th percentile in barrel%, 97th xSLG and xERA/xwOBA, 95th in whiff%, 90th in xBA and K%, 78th in hard hit%, 75th in average exit velo. Just like Karinchak, he’ll be 27 next year and has four more years of team control.
Cleveland may have no interest in breaking up their bullpen, but these guys are intriguing nonetheless.
I want to thank everyone who’s been insane enough to read all of these overview pieces. It’s been genuinely fun to write them, and I appreciate any and all feedback.
Once the playoffs are over, I will check back in and write a condensed piece and any updates if there’s been news between now and then.
This should be a fascinating and hopefully fun winter for the Red Sox. I’m excited to see it unfold.
Enjoy the playoffs.
