RED SOX: Rambling, Incoherent Thoughts on the Rafael Devers Extension
It happened!
Rafael Devers, who was identified early on in his minor league career as a potential franchise cornerstone talent, will in fact be the Boston Red Sox franchise cornerstone for the next 11 years.
On Wednesday night word came down that the Sox and Devers are finalizing an 11-year, $331M extension that will keep him in Boston through 2034. This ends months (years, really) of painful discourse about Devers’ future in Boston and gives the Sox someone to build around.
It’s the largest contract in team history, the first to ever go to double digits i years, and the most in terms of money by over $100M. It’s the largest deal ever for a 3B. It’s the sixth-largest contract in MLB history.
If Devers plays out the entirety of his new deal in Boston, his 17 years here will only be matched by Yaz, Williams, Evans and Wakefield. That’s amazing to think about, and Devers will hopefully be right there with those guys in Red Sox lore when it’s all over.
Here are some rambling, incoherent thoughts on the deal:
It HAD to happen. Did the Red Sox, in their heart of hearts, really want to give the sixth-largest contract in MLB history to one of their own players? Someone who wasn’t even actually on the free agent market? I doubt it.
But did they have a choice? No, for many reasons.
For baseball reasons, Devers is everything you want. He hits for average and power. He gets on base. He’s cut down on his strikeouts. He hits the ball incredibly hard. He sprays the ball all over the field. He took well-earned criticisms about his 3B defense to heart and dramatically improved his play over the course of 2022.
Devers has grown as a leader and clubhouse presence. He’s always smiling and I’ve never heard anyone ever say a bad thing about him as a person or as a teammate. He also might have my favorite laugh of any ballplayer ever.
At 26, he likely has not reached his prime yet. At this point in someone’s career, in order to get those prime years, you likely have to pay for the not-so-good years after it. That’s the cost of doing business in MLB.
Barring possible incredible rookie showings from guys like Triston Casas or Brayan Bello, the Sox lacked a true centering anchor for the franchise with Xander Bogaerts leaving and Devers not locked up beyond 2023. That question is now resolved.
This sends the right message to everyone in the organization, and perhaps more importantly, to the baseball world as a whole: the Red Sox are committed to a team centered around an elite talent for the next 11 years. Free agents will know Devers is there, and that’s a huge deal. Plus, there is now a clear vision for a future core of the franchise that revolves Devers, Casas, Bello, Garrett Whitlock, and ideally the likes of Marcelo Mayer, Ceddanne Rafaela, Nick Yorke, Mikey Romero, Roman Anthony and Miguel Bleis among others.
As far as things off the field go, I’ve been pretty vocal that, despite the offseason not going the way the Sox wanted, they’ve made some significant additions through free agency with more moves likely to come. It would shock some fans to know that the team had actually spent nearly $200M on free agents this winter before Wednesday.
Despite that, the Sox lost the control of the narrative both locally and nationally about the state of the franchise.
Is John Henry still engaged? Does Chaim Bloom know what he’s doing? Why aren’t they spending money? Is FSG planning on selling the team? Are they trying to win now and in the future? What’s the plan here?
Fair or not, those questions were out there, and only got louder after Bogaerts walked. A lot of those questions were answered — and narratives dashed — by the Red Sox handing out this deal.
I said coming into the offseason that getting a Devers deal done had to be the top priority. It took a little while, but it happened, because the Red Sox knew it had to be done — for all the right reasons.
The contract is awesome. The contract Devers signed is terrific for both sides. For Devers, getting $331M guaranteed in his pocket is reason enough for it to be great for him.
For the Red Sox, beyond the good reasons I mentioned above, there’s a chance the deal ends up being a bargain in both the short- and long-term. It’s not exactly clear yet what the AAV of the contract will be — it could be $17.5M in 2023 and then $31.35M for the rest of it, or $30.09M over all 11 years, depending on how they factor in his 2023 contract agreed to on Tuesday — but either way, having a superstar player at around $30M AAV for years is potentially already a bargain.
As revenues expand across baseball, and CBT thresholds rise in the current and future CBAs, the contract AAV will not only be a bargain — it could be a steal, even if Devers eventually moves off 3B. It won’t prevent them from making other additions in the future.
After the 2024 season, the only big commitments on the books will be Devers, Trevor Story and Masataka Yoshida. That could prime them to be involved in a big free agent market that offseason that includes not only Juan Soto but this unreal array of frontline starting pitchers:
Devers was set to be a free agent after 2023, which does not have a particularly strong free agent class beyond the likes of Shohei Ohtani and Manny Machado. It’s very likely — given his age and talents — Devers could’ve cleared 15 years and $400M to the right team in free agency, but the Sox offer was enough for him to forgo that opportunity.
I mentioned before the contract will cover what should be Devers’ prime. Unlike other the big contracts this offseason — some of which will take players into their 40s — this one wraps up when Devers is 35. For context, Jose Abreu is 36 and just got $60M from Houston.
The Red Sox also benefit from Devers not insisting on either a no-trade clause (he will achieve 10/5 rights with the ability to block trades about midway through the deal) or an opt-out at any point. These were huge concessions from the player to get the contract he wanted.
What’s next? The Sox are still on the quest for an up-the-middle bat and possibly a top-half-of-the-rotation starting pitcher. There’s been smoke on trade discussions with the Marlins, we will see if anything comes of it.
For me, what’s really next is the relief that no matter what, the 2024 Red Sox season will just be about baseball. There’ll be no sword of Damocles hanging over our heads about a franchise player player possibly walking out the door.
Instread, we get to revel in the fact the Red Sox signed Rafael Devers. They signed him! No more “SIGN RAFFY” BS! They signed him! It’s over!
But really, it’s just beginning — and we all win.
