Week 11 Football Picks
So much of my thought processes are data driven, whether it’s football, politics, or literally anything else, my brain only follows linear arguments based on logical assumptions. So what has that process gotten me so far this year? A losing betting season. I’m not down big, I have 6 more losses than wins, and my big bets have mostly paid off, so on the year I’m basically even. There are worse things than being an even gambler, but there are also better things. So in an effort to give my picks a jolt, we’re not using any data, just truthiness (Stephen Colbert’s brilliant term that defines the truth as not something you think, but something that you know in your gut). Let’s roll…
Colorado (+17) vs USC
Because big line. Short week. Inconsistent favorite. Slight homersim.
Michigan State (-15) vs Maryland
Because Michigan State is going to smash all the things after getting screwed out of a win last week.
Texas (+8.5) @ West Virginia
Because Dana Holgerson’s playcalling down the stretch last week gives me the confidence that at the very least, he’ll throw 10 passes in a row up 21 and let the Longhorns in the backdoor.
Eastern Michigan (+7) vs UMass
Because this has been the most depressing football season in UMass history. Sure, Eastern Michigan is terrible, but what the hell has UMass done lately to demonstrate they should be favored by this much on the road?
Arizona State (-3) vs Washington
Because in the PAC-12 with their mercurial refs, always go with the offense over the defense. I only half believe my conspiracy theory that the only explanation for the PAC-12’s awful refereeing is that they just want points, points, and more points.
Indiana (+14) vs Michigan
Because it’s starting to look like the rest of the B1G is catching up to Harbaugh’s defense.
Syracuse (+29) vs Clemson
Because letdown game.
Kentucky (+3.5) @ Vanderbilt
Because this game could easily finish 0–0 at the end of regulation.
OVER 66.5 Points in Idaho vs Appalachian State
Because I have an inside guy at the University of Idaho who is 1–0 on tips about this god awful football team.
Memphis (+7) @ Houston
Temple (-2.5) @ South Florida
Because the Owls are pretty much the only thing I’ve consistently gotten right this season.
Arkansas (+7.5) @ LSU
Because everyone is beat up the week after facing Alabama.
BYU (-7) vs Mizzou
Baylor (-3) vs Oklahoma
Because Art Briles is the new Chip Kelly.
New Orleans (0) @ Washington
Because laying no points with a better team against Daniel Snyder’s racist caricature is fun.
Miami (+6) @ Philadelphia
Because how the hell can this not be a 3 point game?
Baltimore (-5.5) vs Jacksonville
Because I need to start to recoup all my losses that piled up believing in the Jaguars.
Denver (-5.5) vs Kansas City
Because checkdown city is not what you want to bring to a fight with a pissed off elite defense.
New York Giants (+7.5) vs New England*
Seattle (-3) vs Arizona
Because must win. Legion of Boom. 12th Man.
Last Week NCAA: 3–7
Season NCAA: 47–51–5
Last Week NFL: 2–5
Season NFL: 25–27–2