Week 4 Football Picks

New strategy since I’m off to my worst start in NCAA since I started betting it. I’m not ready to pull a Costanza and bet against myself, but I’ve been overthinking things. So the theme of this week is no thinking! Just gut feelings for some footbawww! To balance out this madness, I made the same value bet on every NCAA game because ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

NCAA

Utah (-3) vs USC

Minnesota (-17) vs Colorado State

Florida State (-6) @ South Florida

Michigan (-18) vs Penn State

BYU (+7) vs West Virginia (Neutral Site)

Pittsburgh (+7) @ North Carolina

Notre Dame (-20.5) vs Duke

Florida (+5) vs Tennessee (Neutral Site in the middle of a pool of alcohol and human waste)

Western Kentucky (-8) vs Vanderbilt

Oregon (-11) vs Colorado

As a punishment for picking against both Colorado teams this weekend I will be forced to smoke myself into a weed coma on Sunday.

Oklahoma State (+8.5) @ Baylor

UCLA (+3.5) vs Stanford

I feel like I bet against Stanford more than any other bettor out there.

Texas A&M (-5.5) vs Arkansas (Neutral Site)

NFL

This is a bit different. I tied for first in my first week in my picks league (only to lose by 1 to a tiebreaker the next week) and have been fairly solid. So we’ll think these through…somewhat. I don’t want to betray the theme of the weekend.

Patriots (+1) vs Houston

I took a big swing at this one, proof how much I liked them is in the above tweet. This was a dumb line. Bill O’Brien is a doofus, Belichick is a genius, and he could beat 1/3 of the teams in the NFL with me behind center.

Denver (+3.5) @ Cincinnatti

Laugh all you want at my rampant homerism, but this defense is for real (as all my Predominantly Orange articles harp on), and Cincy is not as deep as they’ve been the past few years.

Oakland (+1) vs Tennessee

I drafted Russell Wilson and Derek Carr in my fantasy league and I’m now offering Russell Wilson around to anybody and everybody. No one wants him. In a related note, I am terrible at fantasy football.

Arizona (-4) @ Buffalo

Every year there are lines that we go back and look at and wonder how the hell it could be that low. Buffalo is a dumpster fire, and if this game were played in week 13, the Cards would be a 10 point favorite. This bet = ALL of my NCAA bets.

Detroit (+7) @ Green Bay

Give me 7 points in nearly any divisional matchup and I’ll take it no questions asked.

San Francisco (+9.5) @ Seattle

See the above and the blurb under Oak-Ten. Also Seattle has the worst offensive line in football. That kinda matters.

Atlanta at New Orleans OVER 54 points

Dear lord these defenses suck

Parlays/Teasers

Parlay: Patriots/Broncos/Cardinals at +595 odds

10 Point Teaser: San Francisco (+19.5)/Detroit (+17)/Denver (+13.5)

Parlay: Cardinals/49ers at +530 odds

TOTAL

Last Week NCAA: 2–9–1

Season NCAA: 7–17–1

NCAA Teasers/Parlays: 0–4

Last Week NFL: 2–4

Season NFL: 5–5

NFL Teasers/Parlays: 2–1

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