Week 8 College/Week 7 NFL Bets
We’re climbing back towards respectability! I’m 3 games under .500 with my college bets right now, so my goal this week is climb back into the winning column. It’s been so long since I had a winning record this deep into the season, I legitimately can’t remember how long it’s been since I was above .500 over halfway into the season.
**Checks master gambling spreadsheet**
**Runs through a wall to escape, reverse-Kool-Aid-Man-style**
When I started doing this, I cleaned up on my college bets, and broke even at best on the NFL. Now it’s reversed, and I don’t know what to think because I’ve never believed that betting on the NFL took real skill. That said, the “don’t think too hard about your picks” strategy hasn’t been completely proven wrong yet, so we’ll keep it going for now.
Iowa (+3) @ Northwestern
I can never figure Iowa out, save for their defense, which is as consistently good as you’d expect from a Belichick disciple.
Texas (+7) vs Oklahoma State
Me likey lotta home teams this weekend.
Florida State (-6.5) vs Louisville
Remember Lamar Jackson? Man, whatever happened to that guy?
Navy (+8) vs Central Florida
Perhaps my #1 college football gambling rule comes into play here: home team needing a big conference win while getting more than a TD = automatic bet.
Indiana (+7) @ Michigan State
Indiana is my new favorite team to lose money on.
Utah (-10) vs Arizona State
I honestly can’t tell you why I bet this one. As I scrolled through the lines, Utah called out to me. Literally. Now that I think of it, I have been feeling crappy lately and I’ve taken a lot of meds, so that very well could have been a hallucination.
Oregon (+6) @ UCLA
This bet is made purely out of spite. No one’s lost me more money the last few years than the B(r)OOOOOOOOOOOOOins.
Kansas State (+14) vs Oklahoma
Home dog. Big conference game. Two touchdowns. Rinse. Repeat.
LSU (-7) @ Mississippi
OK so not every home team this week. Ole Miss is barely even a football program this year, so expect to see them on the other side of a lot of bets from here on out.
Penn State (-8.5) vs Michigan
Getting eight and a half points with a Harbaugh defense is realllll tempting. However, Trace McSorely and Saquon Barkley are so damn good, they could cover this line on their own.
USC (+4) @ Notre Dame
This is my biggest bet of the year. I don’t believe in the Golden Domers one iota.
Wyoming (+14) @ Boise State
I need one last hit of Josh Allen before I can fully get clean.
Fresno State (+7.5) @ San Diego State
These are the only teams in the Mountain West western division with losing records, so this is a play-in game to the Mountain West title game — hence why I’m taking the points.
Rest of the NFL picks coming tomorrow, but I already nailed Future Las Vegas +3 on Thursday night’s batshit ending.
Yesterday was bananas. I keep a master spreadsheet to keep track of these bets, notching a 1 in either a Win, Loss or Draw column for each game to keep track of my record. These are in chronological order (wins on the left, losses in the middle, pushes on the right). Yesterday was a trip.
Let’s hope the momentum I picked up last night off Penn State, LSU, Fresno State and Wyoming carries into today.
LA Rams (-3) vs Arizona in London
My 5-point system (grading teams on a 1–5 scale on their QB, coach, pass rush + secondary, offensive line, and number of non-QB/OL gamebreakers) says this is the most lopsided game of the week (after factoring in home field advantage, which is 0 points here obviously). Line should be double this.
San Francisco (+6.5) vs Dallas
Just a hunch that the 49ers are this year’s good bad team, who always finishes in the top 5-10 ATS.
Cleveland (+6) vs Tennessee
I have no explanation for why I continue to bet the Browns, despite going like 4–36 on them ever. My system that has given me three straight winning seasons also says they should be slightly better than they are, but they. never. are. Run kids. Run as far away as you can from this bet.
Jacksonville (-3) @ Indianapolis
One of the most obvious pitfalls this week, and Vegas bookies will no doubt be massive Colts fans today. Betting Blake Bortles on the road is like wearing a meat costume and walking through a bear pit, but the Jags have at worst, the 3rd best defense in the NFL.
Pittsburgh (-4) vs Cincinnati
Speaking of teams with really good defenses, that’s why Pittsburgh is where they’re at, not the offense. I say we see an end to the Dalton mini-resurgence this week. That oline is still bad, and playcalling can only do so much.
Washington (+4.5) @ Philadelphia
Let me be the 1 billionth person to make this observation, but isn’t this line a point and a half too high? These are two of the favorites in the NFC, and Washington really needs this game to maintain that status.
6 point teaser
LA Rams (+3)/Washington (+10.5)
Feels like a really dangerous week to fuck around with teasers, but these are my two favorite bets this week, and they’re both begging to have six points added to them, so we’ll cautiously wade into the stupid waters.
Washington (+180)/San Francisco (+230)/Chicago (+135) vs Carolina
Speaking of wading into the stupid waters, how about this parlay? Every team needs to win outright or this doesn’t cash. If they do all win outright, it pays out at +2100 (meaning $100 returns $2,100). Enjoy the games, folks.
One last bet
I was figuring out whether or not to play Martavis Bryant today in my fantasy league, and I saw Ian Rappaport’s report that he will not sub out for Eli Rogers and Ju-Ju Smith-Schuster like he did last week, which made me think that the Steelers gameplan today is to spread out the Bengals defense sans Pacman Jones, and Bryant won’t sub out for Rogers and Smith-Schuster because they’ll be on the field with him a lot. I’m not one to bet on totals, but.
OVER 40.5 Points in Bengals @ Steelers
Biggest bet of the year. Trying to claw back my USC money that Notre Dame stole from my hot streak last night.
Last Week NCAA: 6–4
Season NCAA: 39–42–1
Last Week NFL: 4–4
Season NFL: 29–26