The war in Gaza is raging. Upwards of 20,000 people have been killed in Gaza since the beginning of hostilities in October, and evidence is clear that most of them are civilians. In a recent study published in the Israeli news outlet Haaretz, sociologist Yagil Levy estimated that 61% of these casualties are civilians, and another puts that number above 68%, either of which would easily make this one of the world’s deadliest conflicts for civilians in recent decades. Other experts have noted that these numbers may be flawed, but the reality could actually be worse than what’s being reported. The bottom line is not disputed by anyone following this conflict objectively: the Palestinian civilians are trapped — often without food, water, or shelter — and the civilian death toll is growing exponentially by the week.
Few credible experts would dispute the fact that Israel has a right to defend itself against a ruthless terrorist organization like Hamas. The attack on October 7th was arguably the largest and most brutal terrorist attack in recent memory, and civilians were the overwhelming majority of the targets. But plenty are asking whether Israel’s response is over the top, completely disproportional, and potentially a war crime. A growing number of experts and historians have even begun to call it a genocide, and while that word is controversial even some of the critics of using the term genocide think this is a war crime.
The Israeli government denies these claims but has failed to present satisfactory evidence to justify the scale of this military operation. Do the Likud party or the Netanyahu administration have credibility? Are their critics really missing a truth, hidden behind pro-Palestinian propaganda?
The October 7 attack was one of the most spectacular intelligence failures in recent memory. New evidence suggests that at least some within the Israeli intelligence community knew the details of the Hamas battle plan but their report was ignored. Either way, the scale of the intelligence failure is tremendous and casts serious doubt about the IDF’s ability to gain actionable intelligence on Hamas.
Yet somehow, we are supposed to believe that this same intelligence community has in its possession enough actionable intelligence to conduct thousands of airstrikes and countless artillery strikes against specific targets inside Gaza. This is a central contradiction. Furthermore, if the IDF had this level of intelligence about Hamas before the war didn’t it have the responsibility to act on this intelligence before Hamas could carry out such an incredible act?
The answer is obvious: Israel does not have enough detailed intelligence to conduct surgical strikes in Gaza, one of the most densely populated areas of the world. Since the start of the current military response the IDF has either lowered the bar for the quality of actionable intelligence, has lowered the threshold of acceptable civilian casualties, has partially or completely abandoned the need for specific actionable intelligence in order to conduct deadly strikes in civilian areas, or a combination of all three.
The biggest problem, however, is that there is virtually no way to verify the claims made by the Israeli government. Ironically, Hamas’s claims are often easier to independently verify or debunk, despite the fact that no critical thinker should take Hamas’s reports at face value.
The Israeli government has complained that many of the reports coming from Gaza come via hospitals, which report to the ministry of health, which is under the umbrella of the Hamas government. The issue they run into is that The United Nations, many governments, and human rights investigatory groups like Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International by and large have found this kind of reporting to be extremely accurate throughout both this conflict and past conflicts. Furthermore, the general assessment — that the people of Gaza are trapped, that civilians are dying at an alarming rate, that local activists and journalists are also dying at an alarming rate — has been witnessed by international aid groups, both Palestinian and non-Palestinian journalists, and anyone with eyes who bothers to look over the fence.
On the other hand, many claims by the Israeli government simply are not verifiable. Can we tell how many Hamas soldiers are in a pile of rubble after a building full of civilians fell on them? No. Do we have access to IDF intelligence? No. Has Israel made it hard or impossible to travel in and out of Gaza to report there? Yes. Has the internet, power, and water been cut off from Gaza for most of the duration of the conflict? Yes. In other words, the Israeli government would like us to dismiss any reports from Gaza that cast its actions in a negative light as Hamas propaganda, but it would also like us all to take it at its word.
While there is PLENTY of fake pro-Palestinian or pro-Hamas propaganda on the internet (much of which is alarmingly effective across the Middle East), the Israeli government and its supporters are also increasingly reliant on disinformation to gain support from abroad. It is not a winning strategy, as is evident by growing global outcries against not just Israel’s current military actions in Gaza but also more broadly its treatment of the Palestinian people.
Furthermore, one has to question whether Netanyahu has any incentive to tell the truth or sue for peace. Perpetual war may be in his own best interest as he may be reliant on using the war and his narrative around it to distract from his own legal trial for corruption.
The consequences of this disinformation war may be substantial. After all, so much is riding on the outcome of this conflict, and not just the outcome on the battlefield. If Israel wins the war but loses all credibility, that is a loss that will resonate for years to come. If Hamas loses the military battle but convinces the world that Israel is not worthy of trust or is the enemy to peace, this could plant the seeds for future conflicts. And as both Islamophobia and antisemitism are rising globally, could the disinformation campaigns taint peoples’ perspectives of Jews or Muslims, Palestinians or Israelis, enough to fuel further violence.
Social media is a dangerous weapon in the hands of the scared and misinformed. One should be very careful before sharing memes or picking sides. One should be particularly aware that if they are picking sides they will have to choose between a terrorist organization and an increasingly-dishonest and unpopular authoritarian government. The only way to a resolution of this conflict is through informed debate, not through propaganda. Only once this begins will we see the reality — Hamas and Netanyahu are opposite ends of the same coin, and the path to lasting peace lies elsewhere.
