2013 Breeders Cup

Friday Selections

Race 6: The Marathon

Top Pick: #5 Suns Out Guns Out — a son of Empire Maker, despite his problems at 1.5M, shouldnt have a problem with this distance because the pace scenario should set up perfectly for him.

Also Like: #9 Pool Play (great back class) , #10 Worldy. If you are playing the exotics, you probably need to hit the ALL button in the Tris or Supers (who knows what will creep in those spots in this kind of race).

Race 7: The Juvenile Turf

Who is going to win? Highest likelihood is one of the Europeans. The reality of this race is there is NO LASIX allowed. This puts the domestic runners at disadvantage. Take your pick:

#2 Giovanni Boldini, #4 Outstrip, #9 Wilshire Boulevard, #12 Shamshon.

Top Pick: #4 Outstrip — seems to fit the profile of a winner the best. If he is 4-1 at or near post time, you should RUN not walk to the windows.

Not Bobby’s Kitten??? Nope. Frankly, aside from the fact that Chad Brown and his owners want to win a big purse, Im not even sure why this horse is in this race. This horse is so clearly an evolving long distance turf horse (think 1.5mi) and this race is at 1 mile. I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see him off the board.

Also Like: #3 Got Shades. GS is probably way in over his head with this crew, but I do like the fact that his last race was without Lasix and he gets Gary Stevens. Next, #7 Aotearoa — this is an rapidly improving horse and may be a mile specialist when all is said and done. He’ll be a nice price. Finally, #8 Bon Accord also catches the eye as rapidly improving plus he gets Joel Rosario.

Race 8: The Dirt Mile

Top Pick: #2 Golden Ticket — he fits the profile of past dirt winners to a T! He is turning back from a longer distance, cracked a couple 100+ Beyers, and raced competitively in G1s. This is what past Dirt Mile winners do.

Also Like: #5 Fed Biz — he ran this race disappointingly last year and Baffert has taken a new tact with him (could work). #11 Pants on Fire — he is a pretty close to a true mile specialist.

Not sure about, but kinda like: #12 Goldenscents — seems like O’Neil is trying to turn him into a bona fide miler. Lets see if it works. My main concern with him and #10 Verrazano is the fact that they have both had grueling, to the say the least, 3 year old campaigns. They both started running in January and aside from recent rest, they ran in some of the biggest and most competitive races the US has to offer for 3 year olds. This takes a toll on these horses. So, I wonder how much is really left in the tank for these guys. To be clear, they tower over the rest of the crowd on a class basis, but if they are tired, they are tired. How I ultimately come to view them will be based in large part on their post time prices.

Race 9: The Juvenile Fillies Turf

Ok. I’m going to say something super unpopular here: I’m probably going to throw out the Chad Brown horses (4 in total). After decades of playing, time after time I see the supposed super trainer who comes to some huge race “loaded” only to come up completely empty. Zero, zilch, notta, nothing. Ive seen it happen to Baffert (Derby & Breeders Cup), Pletcher, and on and on. I don’t know what it is about having multiple entries in a race that causes this, but Ive seen it enough to be wary of these situations. So, yes I will pass on the Chad Brown horses in the win slot. I may use them in exotics, but I highly doubt any of them will win.

As if that wasn’t enough, I am also going to look past emerging super horse #14 MyConquestadory. She simply has the worst post possible. If she wins from this post, then good for her and she is everything people say she is, but I’m not going to put my wagering dollars on a short priced 2 year old filly running on strange track, with the kiss of death post. From a value perspective, it just doesnt make a bit of sense. Now, it is possible, if she is as advertised, she could get up into the exotics. So, toss at your own risk.

Top Pick: #6 Vorda — this French Filly appears to be a real monster; only concern is lack of experience at the distance. Her owner won this same race last year. The fact that she 4 different tracks bodes well. She’ll be ready.

#8 Chriselliam — Another Euro (what can I say? I like Euro trash). This filly has worked lights out since she arrived at Santa Anita, has won graded stakes at the distance, and is simply faster than the rest. Hard to imagine her off the board.

Also Like: #2 Al Thankira — this is the lesser entry of the same owner of #6 Vorda. She owns a graded win at 7f and looks ready to go. #13 Sky Painter — Trained by Kiran McLaughlin. She has a similar post issue as the #14, but she could also make an impact on the race.

Race 10: The Distaff

Because its a six horse field (albeit a packed six horse field), its not that interesting of a race for me. I’ll mostly be watching it to see how (or if??) my Pick 3s and Pick 4s pay off. But since we are picking horses, here goes:

Top Pick: #4 Royal Delta — Despite a loss to Princess of Sylmar in her last race, I think she is all the way back since her trip to Dubai.

Also Like: #5 Beholder — After the KY Oaks, this 3 year old filly had the summer off and is now rounding into top form just at the right time. If anyone knows how to win races like this, its Papa Mandella.

There is no doubt Princess of Sylmar is a great filly. She won the Ky Oaks, the Beldame, the Alabama etc. With that said, like the 3 year olds in the Dirt Mile, she has had a brutal 3 year old season. She has run in all the best and toughest races. That takes a toll. Given all this and the level of competition she is facing today yet again, I cant take a short price on her.

One final note: If you are a gambler, then this is probably your day to make some real money. On Saturday, I have a hard time imagining the likes of Dank, The Fugue, Groupie Doll, or Wise Dan (all heavy favorites) being off the board. So, expect exotics to possibly be depressed on Saturday.

Good Luck!