As an optimist, I’ll give May the benefit of the doubt — but to explicitly rule out membership of the single market is an irresponsible choice
I’m no Tory and don’t take favourably towards Margaret Thatcher or her views, but if there’s anything positive about her premiership, it was the creation of the single market. A British idea and creation that we’re about to just walk away from without a fight — no longer being at the table where the rules are made. Far from being bold, ambitious, and open minded — May’s inflexibility and dogged determination to pull Britain out of the world’s largest single market — which provides common regulations, standards and free trade in a bloc of 500m people — is a reckless and irresponsible choice. Ironic considering this year’s theme of the WEF is “Responsive and Responsible Leadership”.
Businesses trading and operating within the single market must have an alignment of regulatory bodies to avoid dual bureaucracy or worse, divergence. Being a member makes this certain, with trade unencumbered by any possible impediment. In the 21st century we should be looking for ways to open up trade even further, not turn inwards or introduce counterproductive draconian measures — because these do no one any good, not Britain, nor the EU27.
The view that we can just fall back on the rest of the world if we leave the single market is I’m afraid faith misplaced. Not only is the US President-Elect likely to want to protect American industries in potential poor trade deals, but the emerging markets offer little hope either. Last year two of the largest, Russia and Brazil were both in deep recession. China’s economy wobbled. And Turkey’s been downgraded by several rating agencies to junk status. Not to mention the lengthy and wearisome timescale of such trade talks.
The Brexit vote, various populist movements and widespread nationalist sentiment sweeping Europe, in addition to forthcoming elections in Germany, France and the Netherlands has already compounded and hastened a change in much of European thinking regarding freedom of movement, that it cannot continue as it did before. May would be wise to be mindful of this during the incipient negotiations. In her most important speech to date, she was deeply unwise to explicitly rule out membership of the single market, as the freedom of movement pillar of the single market may not even survive the next two years.
As a former Remainer, May feels the need to overcompensate to prove herself of the cause to the Tory right, but this could seriously limit her negotiating position, ignoring significant changes in the political dynamic in the rest of Europe. It is more than likely May will be negotiating with a President Fillon of France who’s pledged to introduce a migrant quota — incompatible with freedom of movement. The Dutch deputy Prime Minister called for a radical change in how free movement of people is implemented. And even the conviction and belief of EU bureaucrats themselves in Freedom of movement has waned considerably, and been doubted publicly when the Commission Vice-President called for a minimisation of the “unwanted consequences” of free movement.
If May’s to make a ‘success of Brexit’, then her venturing of nonsensical guff like Brexit means Brexit or the other white, red and blue rhetoric needs to just end and start to be straight with us as a responsive leader should — which her speech went some way of doing. But her decision to drag us out of the single market against our will with no mandate to do so, certainly isn’t a responsible one, nor is it responsive to be totally blind to the changing political dynamic of Europe.
