Match Commentators: Danny Welbeck is NOT Unlucky
This weekend saw an entertaining clash between Arsenal and Chelsea, the the visitors earning a point at Stamford Bridge.
The match also saw England international Danny Welbeck go down with an apparent groin injury that will sideline him for three weeks.
The NBC color commentators Le Saux and Dixon talked about how unlucky Welbeck is to keep going down with these major injuries.
I quite like NBC’s Stateside EPL coverage setup, including the commentators. However this analysis is just plain wrong, and as former professional players (one of them who played for Wenger) this outlook on the game is almost comical.
Anybody paying attention would understand that it is not random chance causing these repeated, serious, and career threatening injuries.
To see how easy it really is, let’s use an imaginary scenario. Think of it as a thought exercise, so suspend your disbelief with me here:
You are the newly appointed coach of a 1st division team in Estonia. You have a talented squad of mostly home grown, younger players that play a high tempo, “heavy metal” football like the current Liverpool squad. This style of play saw them finish in the top 5 in the season before, just missing out on European qualification.
Early in the pre-season, you get a chance to acquire an older star from the Premier League, aged 34. He is a dogged holding midfielder in the vein of Yaya Toure, but perhaps not as much of a physical specimen anymore due to his age. Because he hails from Estonia and wants to retire close to home, you acquire him on a relatively inexpensive fee. Oh and a quick side note, his last 3 seasons in the premier league were marred by a reoccurring hamstring injury.
Now what?
On day one of preseason, do you take this older, slower player and make him do the same volume of training at “heavy metal” tempo that the younger lads are doing?
Asking that question makes the answer obvious, but perhaps not so for many football coaches around the world. This season has already seen Dembele go down, and now Welbeck. Who’s next?
The season is not 8 weeks old yet.
When planning what to do with players, preseason gives you a rare window to evaluate individual needs and determine how to meet those needs while preparing the whole team. I would imagine that this is the job of the highly credentialed, quasi-celebrity fitness coaches and physios that the clubs employ in numbers.
What do most coaches, even at the top level choose to do? Literally train top level footballers to be marathon runners and seemingly punishing them just for the sake of it.
The irony here is that neglecting that individually tailored program (which would seem to be the standard thing to do for a player with multiple recent, serious injuries) means you’ll have him less anyway…so what was the point?
What makes it even more insane is that these coaches have at their disposal state of the art technology and entire staffs dedicated to player health and overall well being.
Russia 2018 awaits (maybe?)
It’s a WC year, so the international breaks for qualification and eventual friendlies to prepare will have higher intensity. Welbeck is part of a young, promising generation of English players keen to erase the embarrassment of the recent Euros.
He will likely not be holding anything back during training and matches for the 3 Lions.
Was this being considered by the Arsenal backroom staff as they prepared the training plans for this pre-season? Or were they so focused on getting him fit for the upcoming campaign that they didn’t consider his individual training load.
As we saw with the Hodgson / Liverpool row, there is a relationship between clubs and national teams. It should be expected that clubs release players for international duty in a condition that will not harm the national teams preparation for the upcoming matches, and vice versa. This creates a working relationship that keeps player health and team strength at top of mind.
When this relationship gets damaged, the individual parties might start to feel that they “own” a player and not consider the needs of the other team since their own needs are not being respected. Thus, a destructive cycle is initiated where the player is at the mercy of warring factions.
I predicted on my podcast earlier this year that if the World Cup in 2022 is indeed moved to the winter for climate reasons, clubs and national team players for those clubs will be faced with a tough choice.
My prediction is that a major star player will choose to not play in the World Cup if this happens. Tthe risk of doing a major tournament and returning almost immediately to grueling schedule of a top flight league, domestic / continental cup play is to high for a players health.
Back to Estonia
Let’s return to our fictional scenario where you are managing a top flight club in Estonia.
Instead of getting the aging star in the twilight of his career, your club gets a call from Danny’s agent saying he is interested in a transfer to your club. A row with Arsene Wenger has him asking for a move quickly, so the fee is made more reasonable to expedite the process.
Now it’s day one of preseason and you have to decide the training load for a young, explosively fast player. He is coming in for a league known for its grueling schedule, high tempo, and physical play.
So a player with these traits is coming to your training camp. Does he need to do the same amount of work as his less explosive teammates who are accustomed to a tempo slower than the Premier League?
Many have decried the recent record transfers in Europe, claiming that money is taking over the game.
I found myself in this camp as the fee totals started coming in. But a comment on twitter on my previous post is making me reconsider:
If a football fan on Twitter is aware that Dembele is missing training session in pre-season, then shouldn’t his coaches? Wouldn’t they factor that in when designing a training plan and figuring out game minutes for the early part of the season?
How does this relate to transfer fees? Well, clubs are putting up big money to bring in these star players to raise the profile of the club. These are investments. Is the Barcelona board going to accept this kind of negligence from their coaching staff with a player they just broke the bank for?
Or while they start asking questions the next time (or before) a star transfer is almost immediately rules out of the side?
Additionally, the higher transfer fees mean that the players have more to lose, as their earning potential will be affected by incompetent coaching. With the overall value of these transfers rising rising, it is only a matter of time before a player (or his agent) takes a club to court for physical damage done before or after a high value transfer.
They say money talks. Maybe it’s the only way to get football coaches to stop gambling with careers.
