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Considering that, not only does Florida still not look good for Gore, but suddenly he very likely loses New Mexico, Oregon, Iowa, and Wisconsin to Bush, a net loss of 30 Electoral College votes in 2000.

In every one of those states, Nader got many times the total of all other third party candidates combined. If you allocate Nader votes reasonably—off the top of my head, I’d say roughly 40–20–40 for Gore/Bush/not voting, though of course the analysis I did several years ago now went into much more detail—and then do the same for the other 3rd-party candidates—say, 10–60–30 for them—Gore still wins those states easily.

I’ll tell you what. I’ll make you a bet. I bet that if I dig up those old exit poll numbers, and go solely off of the question “whom if anyone would you have voted for if it had been just Bush and Gore”, including all third-party candidates, and reallocating each third-party candidate’s actual official FL total according to the proportions of the answers from that question, and show all my work (R or julia code, with data, on Github), I bet that the outcome will be Gore. This is obviously a very simplistic model; not what I’d use if I actually wanted the best answer, but good in a “nothing up my sleeves” sense. If you win, I’ll donate $50 to the charity or political cause of your choice. If I win, you donate $50 (tax deductible) to electology.org. Deal?

(I’m confident enough that I’d be willing to bet up to $200 if you’re game, which is a lot of money for me as a “starving” grad student; but it’s not worth my time for less than $50. If the bet were $100 I’d also happily write up my trickier national model, and rerun it as a whole and using just FL data. I’ll probably do that even for $50 but no promises until I’ve dug it out.)

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