The Polls Aren’t Missing Anything
Hillary is just kicking Trump’s ass right now
Isn’t it interesting that someone who championed the polls so relentlessly when they favored him has largely ignored them once they weren’t so favorably? It’s no wonder then, with less than 3 months until votes are cast, that his new campaign manager, Kellyanne Conway, is out here trying to undermine polls and pollster methodologies. How embarrassing.
There isn’t anything wrong with polling and there isn’t anyone missing, a silent majority or whatever they’re calling it. Donald Trump is simply getting waxed by Hillary Clinton with likely voters — that’s it. Nothing more, nothing less. People aren’t scared to voice their support (isn’t it obvious?), especially over a telephone (a face to face survey may be different, but that doesn’t exist). People aren’t lying in the reeds in wait, ready to pounce on election day. It’s all misleading bullshit to hide the reality — in fact it’s a sign of ignorance and denial, a sign of a shitty businessman too.
Donald Trump and his cronies are simply mistaken a raucous minority for the majority, it’s really that simple. Historically this happens more often than not by the eventual loser of the race. They refuse to believe what is real because they’re duped by what they see. It’s a belief that what is around us must be what is around everyone — it’s not. The reason Trump doesn’t see it is because the people who will vote non-Trump do not go to Trump rallies…duh.
The size of Trump’s campaign events are utterly meaningless. Of course it means he has a lot of support — he absolutely does, just think that if he lands ~40% of likely voters (and that’s an absolute smackdown that would be unprecedented, he will surely get more) he would have gotten roughly 50 million people to cast their ballot in his favor. If not for the fact that in the presidential election that’s not very good, it would be incredible on its own. Fifty million people — we have a hard time wrapping our heads around such large numbers.
That means Trump’s campaign events of 10,000 or so represent something like two tenths of one percentage point of his potential voters. It’s like making minimum wage and believing that unbelievable riches are just around the corner. Or driving 50 miles and trying to determine if a trip to the moon would even be that difficult. It’s an astronomical difference, and one in which it would be asinine to make assumptions based upon — yet here Republicans are, doing just that.
Donald Trump’s polling numbers match pretty well with other surveys taken that show Trump’s likability (or lack of). He’s the least liked presidential candidate EVER, and if it weren’t for Hillary being the second least liked ever he would not even be in the same stratosphere on election day — he would likely fall behind random names written in just for fun. His unfavorability rating is something like ~60%, and he’s polling just at 42% on average.
Pollsters today are better than they have ever been, they are really damn good at what they do and frankly, when it comes to this topic, they’re smarter than all of us. Variance always exists in man made modeling built around samples, that doesn’t mean anything, but it’s always why the aggregated average is so damn important, and really good. Kellyanne Conway is making a mockery of herself by pushing the same narrative by the losers of elections in the past — and it’s even worse that she was involved in polling in a prior life, she KNOWS that she is lying (or she was really shitty at her job hence why she isn’t doing it now).
Donald Trump is losing, badly, as of right now. It doesn’t mean he won’t lose by less than what the polls show or actually win come election day, it just means that as of right now he is getting his ass handed to him because the majority of voters strongly dislike him.
Trump can pound his chest all day long, he can tone down his rhetoric and change his proposals, he already has (he has championed the immigration procedures just recently, saying Obama and Bush did great jobs on that front), but he won’t get over a large swath of voters that he’s already lost because we’re not dumb enough to believe he just suddenly changed at the most convenient time for him to do so. What a coincidence!
#FuckTrump