Week One Fantasy Shootout: Bengals @ Colts

John Andersen
Sep 4, 2018 · 3 min read
Colts WR Ryan Grant

Even since the Peyton Manning days, the Indianapolis Colts roster has been consistently among the most incomplete in the NFL. Luckily the Colts found themselves with the first overall pick twice, 14 years apart, with generational quarterback prospects at the top of the board.

Andrew Luck brought this team to the playoffs his rookie year, completed the second-largest comeback in playoff history in his second season, and dragged the Colts to the AFC championship game in his third campaign.

A shoulder injury and a year off later Luck is finally back on the field this Sunday. The Bengals defense is more of a coin flip this season, but if Luck is back to his normal self he and new head coach Frank Reich should have their way with the Cincinnati defense.

Perhaps the most underrated free agent signing with the Colts’ of wide receiver Ryan Grant, who is regularly being going undrafted even in 12-man, 18-round leagues such as mine. With a quarterback like Luck, the third wide receiver should be kept in mind. It’s Chester Rogers, a third year, undrafted receiver propelled into the role after rookie wide receiver Deon Cain tore his ACL. Rogers could be double trouble in leagues that count punt and kick return touchdowns toward individual players.

Running back Marlon Mack could miss the first week, but the Colts have a duo of rookies running backs. Both will see time, but Jordan Wilkins is likely to see more carries as Nyheim Hines had fumble problems in the preseason. The Bengals finished 2017 with the 30th-ranked rush defense, are missing linebacker Vontaze Burfict for the first four games of the season, but added middle linebacker Preston Brown in the free agency. Thus, tight end Eric Ebron could see an uptick in production from his Detroit days if Recih can get him matched up with the Bengal’s weak outside line backer corps.

The rationale for the Bengals offense potentially having a big day is simply that the Colts defense is pretty horrific across the board. Jabaal Sheard finished 2017 as an elite edge defender by Pro Football Focus’ metrics, but otherwise pass rush looks scarce. Linebackers Najee Goode and Antonio Morrison performed rather poorly in 2017, and second round rookie Darius Leonard is slated as the third starting linebacker. Matthis Fairly and Malik Hooker off a torn ACL/MCL are decent safeties but the cornerback position is edging on disaster.

This could be a formula for even a team lacking wide receivers and with some clear holes at offensive line to enjoy a big day. Joe Mixon and Giovanni Bernard matchup well with Indy’s linebackers. The Colts finished 2017 as the 26th-ranked run defense and defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus switched from a 3–4 to a 4–3. Tyler Eifery, unless he breaks his back for the billionth year in a row, matches up well with pretty much anyone on the defense. Even second year receiver John Ross is a breakout candidate if AJ Green attracts attention and Ross isn’t the Ross from last season.

The difference in some of these players’ outputs could come down to the Bengals’ offensive line, which had major problems at the beginning of last season (the problems were somewhat fixed when the Bengals started having Andy Dalton throw and release the ball quicker than the defensive line could get off the ball). Cincinnati did trade for left tackle Cordy Glenn, draft center Billy Price in the first round, appears to have found a gem in third year guard Christian Westerman, and bring in tackle Bobby Hart back in February. This looks much better than last year, but these guys are all still question marks.

If the line holds, the Bengals offense should have a big day against the Colts defense. The Colts should have a big day regardless, but the Bengals’ offensive line holding would actually increase the potential output of the Colts’ offensive skill player.

@_JohnAndersen

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