This is a good point. I do think that using research-based content is a great way to add more predictability to content marketing, I wrote about this a bit in my last post: https://medium.com/@janessalantz/barbells-vs-treadmills-a-fresh-take-on-content-strategy-aef8bbd19578#.azsm1lerq
But you’re right that there is never a guarantee. For example, I had no idea this post was going to get the kind of attention it did. I wrote it as kind of a “thinking out loud” piece. We can develop better instincts around what will and won’t work, but there will always be surprises.