Doomsday for big cities? Definitely not.
For the past several months, media outlets have been writing dramatic obituaries for superstar cities — for New York City, San Francisco, Los Angeles, and even London and Paris. No matter which city, the tired storyline reads like this: a mass urban exodus is underway, people are leaving permanently and heading to suburbs and rural locations. Pandemic-induced work-from-home arrangements have made traditional downtown offices obsolete, and so cities will die. RIP cities everywhere. You had a good run.
Here are some of the more sensational headlines:
- New Yorkers Flee NYC in Droves (New York Post)
- Remote Work Is Reshaping San Francisco, as Tech Workers Flee and Rents Fall (Wall Street Journal)
- Coronavirus and the New Exodus from Paris (The Economist)
- The Great Millennial Exodus: How Coronavirus Forced Young People Out of London (Vice)
- The Covid exodus from the city [in Melbourne & Sydney] (The Guardian)
The only problem is that supporting evidence for this urban exodus narrative is, at best, flimsy and, at worst, nonexistent.
A few media outlets have started to pick up on that story, too:
- All These Stories About People Fleeing Cities Are Total Nonsense (Curbed)
- An Urban Exodus? Not So Fast. (Commercial Observer)
People say there are three sides to every story: one side, the other side, and the truth. As usual, the truth lies somewhere in the middle.
City populations always ebb and flow, since there are always people moving in and out. Many of the people who have left cities are young, affluent families who had been renting, and probably already had one foot out the door (a few months of being cramped into a small city apartment with children during a pandemic accelerated their decision). New York City residential real estate expert Jonathan Miller predicts that we may just be seeing three to five years of outflow all at once, which means that there could be fewer moves to the suburbs in future years.
As the virus continues to rage on across the country, people who have lost their jobs may decide to leave their cities for more affordable areas. Widespread adoption of work-from-home policies may also give people who dislike city living the option to leave.
What’s the takeaway?
All major cities have endured pandemics — and worse. City living has always entailed a bit more risk than country life. Fires, crime, war, rebellion, and sickness tend to affect cities more acutely. However, despite the pattern of misfortunes, the magnetism of cities generally stays fairly constant because cities grow and transform when they heal — and often emerge better and stronger.
For example, the 1850s cholera epidemic which ravaged New York City catalyzed the building of Central Park (designed by a man who had lost his first child to cholera), a monumental respite of wilderness smack dab in the center of the city and arguably one of the city’s best attributes.
So what will happen to cities?
Most of the people who fled will return, even if the threat never entirely lifts. City dwellers pride themselves on their ability to endure chaos and shrug off risk.
That’s because many of the qualities that make cities prone to disaster also make them uniquely capable of regeneration. Cities tend to be filled with visionaries because their density of talent and celebration of uniqueness has always attracted the dreamers and doers.
All of the world’s greatest cities — New York City, London, Paris, Tokyo, Mexico City — have endured unthinkable tragedy and emerged stronger, better every single time. When refugees who fled ultimately return home, there is often a housing shortage that drives up prices and kicks off a building spree.
Headlines create fear, which create buying opportunities. Those with the vision to see beyond the fear may have a once-in-a-lifetime chance to buy real estate at deeply discounted prices.
After the terrorist attacks of 9–11, headlines proclaimed the end of skyscrapers and “evacuation parachute” companies flooded the market with safety devices. So we must remember that as raw as cities feel right now, in time, we will move past this chapter. Convenient amnesia will once again take hold and life will return in cities.
And before we go eulogizing New York City, we leave you with this closing thought, as reported by Bloomberg News:
The New York City region has the economic firepower of many countries, greater than South Korea or Russia. On its own, New York City’s economy would be the 10th largest in the world.
Janine Yorio is the co-head of real estate at Republic. She lives in New York City with her family.
