Janne Salminen
Jul 27, 2017 · 2 min read

I like the article a lot but I want to share one criticism.

Surely people who would choose one million now instead of the 31-day doubling penny mostly do so just because they can’t calculate the penny’s final value quickly in their head. At least assuming the decision would have to be made quickly without being able to sit down and compute the final value.

Assuming the above is not an issue, another big reason to take one million immediately that comes to mind is a lack of trust. I find it easy to imagine people not trusting that a “doubling penny”, literal or figurative, would actually do as promised, as such things are not exactly common in real life.

Forgoing 1 million now in order to get 10.7 million 31 days later with 100% certainty is an incredible deal compared to the options that over 99% of people have available to them. But what if you feel that the probability of actually getting that promised 10.7 million if you forgo the 1 million now is not 100% but more like 5%? Then that 10.7 million becomes only an “expected value” of 0.54 million. Even if you think the probability is, say, 15%, how much can you really trust your own ability to determine that probability in the first place?

Taking one million now instead of 10.7 million 31 days later, while also being able to believe with absolute security that the 10.7 million would actually be delivered, is just insane. Surely most people are not insane.

To sum up: investing also requires information, trust and security. When those things have been taken care of, patience is probably the easiest part.

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