Who’s ready for another polling blog? You are? Cool, read on.

In all the discussion of which polls are right, we’ve focussed on age which, given the huge differences between the age groups, is a smart plan, however, it is potentially less important than class. In a final polling sample, 18–24s make up about 8% of the sample so even companies with 80% youth turnout will only have the relative Labour share up by 1–2% in comparison to those companies who have turnout at 40% (in reality, the differences between the companies are not this severe). …

You know what this election needs? More nerdy predictions on what is going to happen in just a couple of days’ time. In my defence, I am a massive geek and doing this brings me huge satisfaction, it is you, the reader, that I’m worried about. With that said, what follows is my barely educated guess on what I think might happen on Thursday.

Following the polling miss of 2015, pollsters have employed a variety of fixes to ensure that they get more accurate results this time. These tend to centre on the following;

· Fix the samples

· Adjust…

Syria and the rise of dodgy statistics

Election Day 2015 was the worst day of my professional life. Like all pollsters, I poured in not a small amount of blood, sweat and, in the end, tears. Whilst all pollsters are working hard to put things right, it appears one unfortunate by-product of our collective failure in May is an even less robust reporting of polls, both by political parties and in the media.

If May was the worst day for me professionally, Corbyn’s rise was perhaps one of the best. The challenge of correctly predicting who would win that contest…

Shock poll finds majority of Labour voters are Tories

Laurence Janta-Lipinski / @jantalipinski

As Conor Pope and Kieran Pedley have argued this week, Labour’s wish to “broaden the leadership debate” only for left of the party to attempt to shut out certain candidates is a troubling development for the electoral prospects of the party in 2020. Both articles make the point that, to win in 2020, Labour needs to broaden its appeal and attract people who didn’t vote Labour in May. The truth, however, is even more uncomfortable. …

L Janta-Lipinski

@jantalipinski Former @YouGov pollster. Now a freelance research, comms & political strategy consultant

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