Nafeez Ahmed thank you for this very insightful piece. I already read the HSBC side of the story and it’s very interesting how you bring that together with the BP side, to create a more holistic analysis.
One thing I do not understand is why you imply a causal link between oil production defining economic growth. Is it not possible that the inverse occurs, ie. lower economic growth causing a reduction in oil production?
Also, how do you factor in the transition to more renewable energy sources, and electricity-based transportation (electric cars & trains)? I do believe that within the next ten years a significant percentage of cars will become electric, which would change a section of our energy footprint.