Coronavirus: Canada and US at the crossroads

  • To show where Canada and the US are right now, relative to other areas of the world
  • To highlight what we can do to slow the curve

Sneak peak of the findings:

  • Confirmed cases per million population is quite simply number of confirmed cases divided by the population, multiplied by one million. 1 case per million is just like it sounds “one in a million”. Hubei is at about 1,000 coronavirus cases per million. Canada is at just over 100 confirmed coronavirus cases per million, and the US is at about 250 cases per million.
  • Canada is literally at the crossroads right now. As a country we can still follow the growth curve from South Korea and keep this situation manageable. But we could just as likely fall down the pathway of Spain, Italy and Hubei.
  • The US was late to the party but they are catching up quickly! The US needs to step things up drastically if they want to bend their curve.
  • The only thing that makes a difference now is that each one of us does what we can to reduce the number of new cases today. If every day we can reduce the spread of the disease to a smaller number than the day before, then we’re winning the war. It’s a simple as that.

Confirmed cases

Taking into account the size of each region

The war is won and lost in the local regions

Make every day count

  • Don’t be lax about the guidelines … if you don’t really have to go out then don’t go out. If it’s 6 feet of separation then keep it to 6 feet or more. Don’t sing “happy birthday” just once when washing your hands … do it twice!
  • Many people are bending the above rules a bit because they are convinced that they don’t have the coronavirus. To play it safe, assume that you’re one of the 30% who have it and don’t have symptoms.
  • If you’re sick then treat yourself like you are patient zero in a global pandemic … you have one job to do your part: don’t pass it on to anyone else. That’s the biggest way you can help. Read and re-read the very helpful best practices guides and don’t overreact: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/if-you-are-sick/steps-when-sick.html

Main take away messages

  • In general things are getting worse, with most reporting countries showing signs of “up and down” patterns of new cases per day, or increasing numbers of new confirmed cases per day.
  • Canada can still turn this around, but only if we hit our inflection point in the next few days.
  • The US will have to do something substantial, and do it quickly or this will far outpace what we’ve seen in Italy and Spain.
  • What matters most is that we all do whatever we can to make the number of new confirmed cases for our own region lower tomorrow than they were today. This is now a community-based disease, which means that it’s all up to us at this point.

Specialist in healthcare analytics in Canada; CEO of AnalysisWorks, a company that empowers healthcare innovators

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Jason Goto

Jason Goto

Specialist in healthcare analytics in Canada; CEO of AnalysisWorks, a company that empowers healthcare innovators

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