Jason Haller
Aug 28, 2017 · 2 min read

This single metric “EROI” seems like it might be an oversimplification. EROI in the ‘30s and ‘40s was 50:1 for oil. Next year it will be 15:1. But I am willing to bet that more economic activity occurs from 14 barrels in 2018 than it did from 49 barrels in the 1930s.

For instance, an old Model T had a top speed of 45 mph, a curb weight of 900–1200 lbs, and fuel efficiency of 20 mpg. A Hyunda Elantra weights more than 3x, has triple the top speed (and much greater torque), with a highway fuel efficiency of 40mpg. It is also a safe bet that the Elantra has a smaller carbon footprint than the Model T.

In other words, one barrel of oil today gets a person many times farther, faster, and cleaner than a barrel of oil in the ’30s, during “peak EROI.” Assuming a 2018 EROI of 15:1, if society as a whole has become five times more efficient since the ‘30s, then we have an “efficiency inflated” EROI of 75:1.

Obviously, motor vehicles are but one use for oil. But I would not be surprised to see other “more for less” areas where oil is utilized.

I see no indication that efficiency gains are abating (at least in the automotive sector). These gains, in conjunction with reduced demand as a result of improvements in battery technology and renewables would seem to me to be the already-in-progress solution to declining EROI.

When forecasting doom and gloom based on the history of complexification in ancient peoples, I would take comfort in the fact that global capitalism and advanced information technology have created a world where millions of people are using their mental energies every day to devise solutions to problems like these.

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    Jason Haller

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