This will be very surprising to the absolute majority of people, but it is relatively simple to contain COVID-19 at this point if the right measures are enacted immediately. It’s all about changing government and people mindsets. Instead of taking gradual reactive measures based on the number of cases increasing (the boiling frog analogy) because governments are afraid of damage to the economy, it is absolutely vital to go for total radical and pro-active measures that will essentially grind to a halt the normal course of living for a very short period of time — a couple of days. Through these measures COVID-19 will be contained within 3 weeks in most places in the given cities/countries enacting these measures and much less harm will be done to the world economy in the end.
I have devised a very simple plan — The 11 Day Plan — that is based on evidence of what works to contain the virus, draws on behavioral economics, minimizes long term damage in mental health (we will be facing a global epidemic of anxiety disorders and OCD otherwise) and takes into account the specifics of the situation and shortcomings we are currently facing, which include:
· Total shortage of protective gear, respirators, masks etc. for even the most exposed in the first line of defense — doctors and medical personnel
· Testing capacity is limited, helplines are clogged up, it is often very difficult for people with symptoms to even get tested
· Our governments are not agile and capable enough to deliver a response like Singapore, which can deliver surgically precise interventions on a micro level. Actually, I firmly believe US/European governments must immediately give up on imitating Singapore, which was prepared on a completely different level than we are (experience with SARS epidemic etc.)
· Contact tracing is becoming increasingly more complicated with the amount of cases and the rise of community spread
· Certain governments (e.g the UK) are on the verge of giving up on the containment phase and are increasingly looking at the option of letting the disease cascade through the population
· We are still very lucky to have a limited amount of cases and little community spread
This is The 11 Day Plan. I have kept it as simple as possible — because that makes it the most effective and easy to understand (there are many tweaks and upgrades I can think about, but I will discuss them later elsewhere):
1. Each country, city, region or village (with a perimeter of a few km to be defined based on contact tracing) that has more than 1 case per 20,000 inhabitants must enact for a period of 11 days a total ban on people leaving their household — except for 1 household member every two days to purchase food/medicine or critical medical visits. This is how you drive down the multiplying effect of the virus substantially. All restaurants (except for takeaways), offices, gyms, pretty much everything, are closed for 11 days. Establish a two hour window, say 10.00 to 12.00, where supermarkets and pharmacies are open only to the most vulnerable — to pensioners — to decrease their chances of infection.
2. For 11 days enact an order that all medical staff, pharmacy and supermarket employees must wear respirators or face masks. On a country level divert your protective supplies to cities with the enacted 11 Day plan so they can supply these employees.
3. Deliver a surge in frequency of public transport for 11 days to increase social spacing (may seem counter-intuitive when use of public transport has already declined, but it is the right thing to do). Ban the taxi service, UBER, LYFT etc. for 11 days for transporting people. Instead, make all these drivers couriers for 11 days.
4. Cut all transport links to other countries, cities and regions that are virus free or have limited cases (under 1 case in 20,000 inhabitants). Only keep them open for critical logistics.
So why enact all these measures for exactly 11 days? 11 days is a short enough time frame that people can envision their lives grinding to a halt for and staying at home. Also, 11 days happens to be where approximately 95%+ of cases fit with their incubation period. The whole idea is that within these 11 days the vast majority of people that are currently infected but are not showing symptoms will develop symptoms and surface. You then keep these people in strict home quarantine and put the most vulnerable/tough cases in the hospital. Within 3 weeks you basically have COVID-19 contained with all existing cases in home quarantine or hospital in a given territory. Here and there you will have a new case surface somewhere, but you are dealing with a problem of completely different magnitude and with the small amount of these cases you can deliver a precisely targeted intervention. The economy can be pretty much immediately restarted in full swing in 3–4 weeks and the least economical damage is done as opposed to gradual reactive measures that most governments are currently enacting.
Now, it is very legitimate to ask why not enact all these measures for the entire country or the entire continent for a globally synchronized 11 day period — especially since the world is so interconnected? It would be obviously difficult to coordinate and the effect on this economy would be a little bit larger, but not significantly. The world economy is paralyzed anyway.
This may sound totally naïve from somebody living somewhere in the Czech Republic with no global policy experience– but I am calling on the WHO/United Nations/World leaders to help me enact this GLOBAL 11 Day Plan. Dream Big, right?
Please share if you support the idea. Also, I would be delighted if at least one small newspaper could publish this because my wife is angry with me because I have been working on my computer nonstop for 2 weeks. I need to show her that I have been doing something useful. Stay strong everybody, this will be over soon.
This article is creative commons.
Jan Barta, 34, resides in Prague, Czech Republic. He is a partner in Pale Fire Capital.
