The age-old question in investment is how to detect a brewing bubble. Simply put, how can you know you’re buying a second hand, rusted Mountain Bike for the price of the latest Mercedes? No one in his right mind would do that, yet they do it all the time. Why? Is it because of the madness of the crowds? Partially. Most crucially, however, is the timing difficulty.

Everyone knows the US Market is expensive at the moment. Here is a graph showing the Shiller CAPE index (basically a number which expresses an adjusted ratio of price over earnings, thus determining…

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