HISTORY’S FORMULA: is it time for psychohistory?

There has been a hot debate for millennia: Is there some predestination in history? Are civilizations heading in a foreseeable direction? Or is history “a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing,” as stated in Macbeth?

Beyond the generational cycles identified by Strauss-Howe ( see our previous “DEJA VU” post here), is it possible to see recurrences on a larger scale? Major patterns that would appear over and over again across millennia, from country to country, from civilization to civilization, and that would enable us to understand the rise and fall of empires, assess civilization dynamics, figure out where we are in the cycle, and help us predict the future with some kind of accuracy?

Isaac Asimov, a science fiction writer, made up the mathematical science of “psychohistory” for his “Foundation” series of books in 1951. Psychohistory was supposed to be able to predict the evolution of societies based on the psychology of the masses.

According to the book’s plot, a scientist named Harry Seldon sees early signs of a major galactic empire’s inevitable decline and builds a foundation to save civilization and speed up the transition to a new age.

If the novel has attracted huge public interest throughout the years and if psychohistory has excited the public imagination, no convincing similar science has yet appeared. Until a new discipline emerged from outcast historians in the last decade.

A new science that may well evoke the predictive capabilities of psychohistory and give us precious perspectives about the future and the dynamics at work in our troubled era: “Cliodynamics.”

How did this new science appear in the very conservative academic environment of historical studies?

As often, innovation did not emerge from the heart of the discipline but from outcast thinkers coming from the field of quantitative biology. Similar to how sexology was revolutionized by wasp entomologist Alfred Kinsey in the 40s and sociobiology by ant specialist Edward Osborne Wilson in the 70s, it was a researcher who initially specialized in population ecology, Peter Turchin (1), who ventured in the 2000s to apply quantitative mathematics to human historical data in order to detect the possible laws of history.

Working first on the dynamics of agricultural civilizations, then on the mechanisms of wars and empires, and ultimately on the fabric of modern North America, he amassed and analyzed masses of data series on population, wages, elites, and conflict to find correlations and recurring patterns. With staggering results that confirm and dramatically expand the theoretical intuitions of ancient history thinkers such as Ibn Khaldun and lay the foundations of a new quantitative ‘Cliodynamics’ (2) discipline, still young but highly promising.

Why would very different civilizations from very different ages reveal the same evolutionary patterns?

Because while human group dynamics are complex and are affected by erratic events (such as natural disasters), they are primarily influenced by simple variables: the relations between population demographics, the availability of resources, and the evolution of the governance of these resources, dictated by human psychology across generational cycles.

1 — Expansion

Just like the Strauss-Howe generational model, but with a wider perspective encompassing several generational cycles, Peter Turchin’s secular cycles start with an expansion period, on a new territory or after a depopulation crisis, where population growth is enabled by sufficient resources.

2 — Stagflation

As it develops, civilization progressively complexifies and reaches a point when marginal administrative cost growth exceeds marginal productivity gains, at the same time as continually increasing populations create a stronger pressure on the limited resources.

Civilization then enters a vicious circle. Instead of adapting to shrinking resources, the governance frenzy augments, with elites exerting greater pressure to impoverish the populace to maintain their privileges, creating even more aspirations from people to save themselves by joining the elites and their servants (a trend that Peter Turchin labels as ‘ elite overproduction ‘).

This first creates a golden age for the elites, who take advantage of impoverished populations, who are becoming more and more fragmented, put under wage competition, who have less and less power to defend themselves from the tax burden, and whose riots against inequality, inflation, and stagflation fail.

3 —Crisis

But the situation ultimately reaches the point where the global administrative burden is becoming so untenable that resources are decreasing for part of the elites themselves, which therefore fragment into concurrent factions competing to take control of the shrinking resources.

In the wake of the rising crisis, some of these impoverished elite factions take then the lead of disgruntled populations’ revolt movements in their fight for power. Leading to rebellions, civil wars, or revolutions, which sometimes favor external invasions, adding to the general turmoil.

4 — Depression

All this ultimately results in a global collapse, demographic decline, and reduction of elites, restoring the equilibrium between population and resources and enabling the start of a new cycle, usually after a long period of decay and depression.

All that creates entangled cycles of what Peter Turchin calls ‘the double spiral of well-being and elite overproduction.’ Civilizations are usually exhausted after 2 or 3 such secular cycles and then outpaced, conquered, or even replaced by younger and more dynamic ones.

Well demonstrated on secular cycles of 160 to 300 years in Egyptian, Roman, Chinese, and European agricultural empires, the Cliodynamics theory also offers an enlightening analysis of the modern industrial era dynamics — with the USA at the heart of it — taking into account modern factors such as globalized trade and immigration.

Completing the Strauss-Howe analysis — whose small 80-year cycles integrate smoothly into the larger Cliodynamics secular cycles — this data-driven historical model is quite enlightening. It contributes to providing a solid theoretical foundation to explain the large imperial and currency cycles empirically observed by financial analyst Ray Dalio (3). It is also enlightening to explain the civilization collapse patterns identified by academic collapsologists such as Joseph Tainter, Jared Diamond, and others.

Based on Cliodynamics, which diagnosis could we make about our time?

As the Strauss-Howe generational model points out, we are at a time of turmoil in the western world. We are not only at the time of a generational turning; we are also at the time of a secular crisis!

A time when elites, administrative layers, and ‘bullshit jobs’ consume a major part of resources, with 70% of the US GDP being devoted to bureaucracy and redistribution, and when a large part of the population tries to join the elite and administrative layer, whether directly or indirectly (i.e., through NGOs and state or philanthropy-funded associations).

A time when most of the truly productive part of the middle-class strives to maintain a decreasing standard of living and is put in competition with a globalized lumpenproletariat through automation, offshore, or low labor immigration that is dramatically less costly but increasingly as competent.

A time when economies only stand by a rising pyramid of debts, putting on the next generations a burden they will never be able to repay, leading to highly dangerous financial Ponzi schemes.

A time in which elites compete to pretend addressing rising global challenges (health, climate, social justice…) that they deem to be the only ones capable of solving.

A time when impoverished poor and middle classes polarize and begin to revolt, as seen in the UK with Brexit, in the US with Trump’s 2016 election, in France with the ‘Yellow Vests’ demonstrations, and with the rise of multiple sects and millenarian movements everywhere.

A time when elites themselves begin to separate into factions. When the ones in power become authoritarian to control their increasingly disgruntled and fragmented populations and threaten the very concept of democracy. And when others begin to build their own clans to take the lead in revolt movements and try to seize power in fragmented societies.

A time when some governments see international conflicts as the last recipe to maintain social cohesion and engage in dangerously adventurous hostilities, and no one can guarantee that they will not degenerate into high-intensity global wars.

A time when all of these troubles may lead at any moment to a brutal collapse, which could lead to rebellion or a transition to an undemocratic empire, such as during the transition from the Roman Republic to the Roman Empire.

All that at the very moment when we reach the limits of the planet’s resources. And when alternative powers, which are in another phase of their own cycle, rise and put the West under pressure.

Is a collapse inevitable, at least in the West?

If the cyclical rise and fall of states and empires is inevitable and deeply rooted in human psychology, a key factor in civilization dynamics ultimately depends on the equilibrium between population and resources. And there is a disruptive factor that may positively change the parameters of this equation by dramatically expanding the availability of resources: technology.

This is what belied the Malthusian predictions of the end of the 17th century, that the geometric progression of populations would outpace the arithmetic progression of resources, leading to dramatic world famine. A prediction that, fortunately, has been invalidated up to now thanks to technological advances enabling a dramatic inflection point in human growth and population in the industrial era and then in the digital one.

What does the future hold for us?

May we be the victims of the conjunction of the western civilization crisis and the progressive rarefaction of world resources, notably energy, leading to a fight for survival between nations? Or may upcoming technological progress allow us to keep ahead of the world population and consumption curve?

It is not yet written. But more than ever, we are at a defining moment. A moment of generational and secular crisis that may well end up in a period of deep chaos and depression. But also at the moment when technological innovations may bring a new start to our societies and help us cross the difficult divide between resource limitations and population wishes.

Which will win, between the downgrading forces of decay and the positive forces of innovation? Time will tell.

One thing is sure: as synthesized by popular wisdom, “hard times create strong men, strong men create good times, good times create weak men, and weak men create hard times,” so as the cycle goes on.

We have definitively hard times in front of us.

Will we find the inner strength to endure them, find a second breath to rebound, and ascend to a new cycle of prosperity and growth? Will we be able to make the best of the events to pass through the crisis and save heaven for us, our families, our businesses, and our communities?

There is only one answer. And it is up to us to find it deep within ourselves.

‘HISTORY’S FORMULA’ is the fifth post of our ‘Global Transition Crisis’ series. The previous posts of this series, ‘ANTI-PREDICTIONS 2022", “ESCAPE VELOCITY”, “GREAT RESET” and “DEJA VU” can be found here >

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(1) Peter Turchin is a Professor at the Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, at the University of Connecticut and a Project Leader in Social Complexity and Collapse at the Complexity Science Hub of Vienna. He investigates a set of broad and interrelated questions: How do human societies evolve? What processes explain the evolution of “ultrasociality” (our capacity to cooperate in huge anonymous societies of millions)? Why do we see such a staggering degree of inequality in effectiveness of governance and economic performance among nations? Turchin’s analysis of modern times can notably be found in his most famous book: “Ages of Discord: A Structural-Demographic Analysis of American History”. More https://peterturchin.com

(2) Cliodynamics (from “Clio”, the muse of history) leverages the structural-demographic theory mathematical modeling to the social sciences in general and to the study of historical dynamics in particular. It studies the rise and fall of empires, population booms and busts, the spread and disappearance of religions, and the outbreaks of political instability in complex societies. The term was originally coined by Peter Turchin in 2003. While cliodynamics is still a nascent discipline, not yet universally recognized in historian circles, its modeling approach will probably be considered in the coming decades to be a breakthrough in social sciences, with multiple applications in predictive social analysis. .

(3) In his book “Principles for dealing with the changing world order — why nations succeed and fail”, hedge fund guru Ray Dalio puts into perspective “Big Cycles” driving the successes and failures of the world’s major empires — including the Dutch, the British, and the American — over the last 500 years. Focused on the financial perspective, his works echoes Cliodynamics analysis of the repeating patterns and cause/effect relationships underlying major changes in wealth and power between nations. As we will cover it in detail in our next post, he ultimately predicts the fall of the reserve currency status of the dollar and a probable US-China war in this decade. More: https://www.principles.com/

Originally published at https://www.futuremastery.com.