
Don’t crown the Tesla Model 3 just yet…
As Tesla goes on the offensive, and aims its Model 3 directly at the affordable Electric Vehicle (EV) segment, could its plans for domination be foiled?
Hear me out! I know the title of this blog post sounds like yet another ‘edgy’ piece, expounding on the obvious reasons why Elon Musk is going to fail in his latest EV venture. This is not one of those posts, I can assure you. I am only asking you to consider for a minute (or three), that the Tesla Model 3, may very well find itself in an unexpectedly bloody brawl for the “affordable EV” segment.
Who sits upon the lithium-ion throne?

To make a long story short, Nissan launched its wildly successful Leaf EV in 2010, but since then, has apparently been happy to rest on its laurels as other manufacturers followed suit, with a few making impressive gains in the segment. While some may feel (myself included) that Nissan lost tremendous ground by not significantly updating the Leaf in nearly a decade, we must not forget that Nissan has sold over 250,000 Leafs worldwide. Arguably, the marketplace for affordable EVs has remained pretty open, up until the promise of the Tesla Model 3 was made.
The One
Tesla has seen much success with its EVs, and its customers have been jokingly characterised as cult-like in their loyalty and support of the brand, but with good reason: With the introduction of the Model S and subsequently the Model X, Tesla has managed to carve out a niche market for itself; the premium EV segment. In four short years, Tesla transitioned from being a boutique sport car manufacturer, to legitimate OEM, and true to its original intent with the Roadster, Tesla’s pitch remained that you can drive beautiful, high performance EVs. That proposition was a far cry from the “eco-jellybean” perception attached to EVs in those days.
Chess not checkers

Here is where things begin to get interesting. To the casual onlooker, Tesla’s corporate strategy comes straight out of the ‘disruptive innovation’ playbook, where the newcomer (Tesla), creates and dominates a niche market (premium EVs), and then eventually goes after the “main market” (affordable EVs). Tesla’s genius — and very deadly — sleight-of-hand however, was the creation of a second niche market; the owned autonomy segment. Tesla has been using its customers as live beta-testers, honing its algorithms through real world usage, and has in the process saved lives, and sometimes unfortunately, lost them as well.
Affordable autonomy
So forget all the tasty EV specs, the real intent behind the Model 3 is to spread the autonomous virus. One man’s opinion of course. Sure, the Model 3 takes range anxiety off the table, however, the same can be said about any next-gen EV in the works, and I don’t think Musk is relying on the Model 3’s good looks to get it over the line. It’s the autonomous function. That’s the gold dust. In the same manner that we began to care less about keypads, and more about apps when the iPhone launched, people will care less about driving once society begins to experience this technology — and the new “3rd space” between home and work — at scale. Disrupting the petroleum industrial complex will just be icing on the cake.
The turning tide

Here is where the much-anticipated Tesla Model 3 is likely to get punched in the mouth. The 2018 Nissan Leaf. Nissan’s next-gen Leaf, slated to be unveiled on the 6th of September this year, has been rumoured to have a driving range that rivals the Model 3, but more importantly, will include ProPilot, Nissan’s single-lane, semi-autonomous technology. Here’s the kicker. Nissan’s fully loaded 2018 Leaf will come in at the same price as a base Model 3…. which does not include autonomous capabilities. However, you may (reasonably) argue that the Model 3 and the Leaf cater to two different demographics in terms of styling, functionality and brand image, however, my rebuttal would be that for the price of a semi-autonomous family hatch, customers will begin to seriously interrogate a similarly priced Model 3 for comparable value. Add to that, Nissan’s established supply chain (no production hiccups), and 250K previous owners, I am beginning to question whether Tesla will be the one to democratise electric, autonomous mobility.