Four years later and there aren’t any clear conclusions. But here are some data points, cross-referencing data from http://www.techstars.com/companies
1- The top two profit earners (SocialCrunch and SimpleRelevance) were both acquired.
2- Of the four companies that asked for mega-inventory (1000+ bottles): two failed, one was acquired, and one has raised $4m+ and is still active. This feels like high-risk/high-reward tendencies from these founders!
3- Perhaps there’s a sweet-spot in knowing your own abilities? Of the five companies that asked for between 200–500 bottles to sell: one failed, one was acquired, and the three others have raised $3m+ each and are all still going. (If you make the range 200–400 bottles the results are 1 failed and 3 still going.)
4- Of the two companies that sold the most (Peoplematics and Project Fixup), they both lost money in the exercise and both companies ended up failing.
I agree — I love sales exercises like this that Troy ran. And the results are interesting… I’d love a bigger data set to see if more obvious trends would appear.