Will Ebola Be Obama’s Katrina?

Our national failure to act is setting the stage for the biggest tragedy in modern times (I hope I am wrong). I’m scared that Ebola will come to the U.S. and devastate our country. What I see from our leadership is a consistent failure to think. This is not hysteria — it is healthy fear.

First: I’m a computer guy, not a virologist or epidemiologist. Know that, but we can apply logic to the facts that have been given to us.

The common spiel from the CDC/establishment goes something like this:

“1. We can’t restrict travel, because we need people to fight the epidemic in Africa. 2. The only way to really prevent ebola from coming to the U.S. is to stop the epidemic in Africa. 3. An ebola outbreak like the one in Africa can’t happen in the U.S.”

Let’s pick this apart:

1. “We can’t restrict travel”

The two backing arguments I’ve heard are (a) “people need to go to West Africa to fight the epidemic, and they’re going to need/want to come back” and (b) “if we close the normal travel routes, infected persons will smuggle themselves in and we will lose our ability to detect them”.

We don’t need to apply restrictions to people traveling to West Africa. We can certainly apply restrictions to people coming back from West Africa: only medical personnel allowed, and a required quarantine. You can see that those who are on the ebola front lines really value their ability to travel when on holiday. We can financially make it well worth their while to spend 21 days in quarantine on their way to that holiday (money and extra time off).

It is ludicrous to think that someone would subject themselves to the extreme risks of human smuggling to avoid a 21-day quarantine. Certainly people will take great risks to get out of West Africa. Once they’re out, it would be much more practical to wait three weeks and then walk across the U.S. border.

2. “The only way to really prevent ebola from coming to the U.S. is to stop the epidemic in Africa.”

Yes, there is a moral obligation and a self-interest in fighting the original outbreak. The establishment speaks of inevitable carrying of ebola from Africa to the U.S. The reality is that ebola required travel to come here — it can’t swim. In 1491, ebola could not get here.

The other deadly problem in the establishment logic is that we (the U.S, the world) are not doing what it takes to eliminate the outbreak in Africa. So if stopping this outbreak is fundamental to our solution, then we’d better get on the stick right now. Using basic logic, the current party line can be reduced to “we’re fucked, Q.E.D.”

3. “An ebola outbreak like the one in Africa can’t happen in the U.S.”

I’ve read nothing that backs this up. I have read articles that make me believe: (a) Caring for ebola patients is expensive and dangerous. (b) The CDC and an average U.S. hospital exhibited total incompetence when handing ebola case #1. (c) Although not airborne, ebola spreads with ease.

Let’s start with (c): have a quick glance at the CDC’s Ebola Q&A web page. Let’s look at two key sentences about transmission that, combined, should scare you shitless:

“Direct contact means that body fluids (blood, saliva, mucus, vomit, urine, or feces) from an infected person (alive or dead) have touched someone’s eyes, nose, or mouth or an open cut, wound, or abrasion.”

“ Ebola on dried on surfaces such as doorknobs and countertops can survive for several hours […]”

Example scenario: someone with ebola sneezed, wiped their nose, and then opened a door. You come along an hour later, and open the same door. Then you eat a cookie. You die. Picking your nose could be a capital offense.

Sure, the rate of transmission in this manner matters immensely. But this is death, not the flu. So much of the basic tasks we do each day have us touching objects that are frequently touched by others (e.g. opening doors). Know also that Emory recently discovered that ebola is present on the skin of the victim when symptomatic — not just in the body fluids.

As for (b), just use Google. (a)? Imagine if every person with a fever had to be treated as if they had ebola. Read the links above, and picture the effort needed by all first-responders and doctors to stay safe. That effort and isolation requirements mean that the capacity of our health care system would be reduced to a fraction at the start of an outbreak in the U.S.

What to do about it?

Tell the president to (a) fix the logic, (b) get a viable plan into high-gear today.