Thur Mar 16 Quick $3850 profit per future since last night. Took profits based on a longer term resistance level. Used a recent low at 12096 for a stop alert. The resistance level goes back to high in Nov’21. NQ could get some legs here if it holds.

Wed Mar 15 Just a spec but like the looks of NQ after all this bad news. Yes, a credit “event” could occur but I don’t think so (just yet anyway). If futures are too cowboy for you, there is always the QQQ.

Tue Mar 14 If you haven’t heard of The Graduate, go watch it. Dustin Hoffman at his best. At a pool party, young Benjamin is given one word to sum up his entire future… plastics. This may not be such a monumental moment but it could be the beginning of…

Sat Mar 11 The 16th largest bank locked its doors yesterday. They had over 200 billion of assets and a little over 175 billion of deposits. Yes, the Fed guarantees up to 250K for each account. The problem is that 90% of those deposits is estimated to be over 250K…

Tue Feb 21 Remember that game where a mole pops up and it is your job to hammer it down? There’s an eerie comparison to perpetual Fed pivot longs who keep getting monkey hammered every time they get a taste of momentum. Will the Fed pivot this year? They may…

Tue Jan 10 I shorted the Jan13 12 puts last Thur at an average price of 1.00. The stock was trading in the 12.50 area. Kicked out the trade yesterday at 0.30 for a .70 profit (out of a potential maximum of 1.00). I like these naked short-term put trades because of the forced time decay. Note that the stock is currently trading around 11.50 (one point lower than Thur) and the options are 1.00 bid. That’s an 8% adverse stock move with no change in the options. Another way to look at it, is that those few days provided a nice margin of error to re-evaluate the trade and exit without much pain. If I had not taken them off yesterday, I would have kicked them out for a scratch today.

Mon Jan 9 Taking profits on majority of BOIL Jan 13 Puts (see prior post for entry). Average price sold was 1.00 with an offset of .30 this morning. Still like NG on the long side but with 70% of the profit potential realized, it makes sense to cash in. Good trading!

Sun Jan 8 Here are a couple of long ETFs to start the year with. They all have options and some weekly expirations. The market could get a lift with the inflation numbers next week (core MoM and CPI are expected to be flat). Powell will also be speaking at the Riksbank Symposium. There is still plenty of bullish sentiment (cashflows into ETFs and Q3 rally banter). I still see any decent rallies as short opportunities.

Fri Jan 6 It is safe to say that ’22 was a tough year for most folks. Most people (money managers included) have been conditioned to a Fed-backed market. How many dips were bought on the rallying cry of Fed pivot? To Powell’s credit, he has said what he means…