Thanks, Tim. Good article.
I’m not deep into finance or investing (my 401K managers do the work for me) but the foolishness of making plans that bank on a certain future extends to many other fields. The tried and true “strategic planning” approach that organizations of yesteryear have deployed is losing it’s punch. The future is too uncertain to make plans based on assumed future trends.
Strategic planning of the future will be characterized by self-awareness, agility, and decisions. Instead of predicting where the path will unfold, a company with a clear mission, knowledge of it’s capability, and good information about reality (self-awareness) can respond to trends and be decisive which path to take as it splits, twists, and turns.