I get a kick out of reading people who still think the next great thing will come out of Apple. I (and many others) may be wrong but the evidence indicates otherwise. The article points to augmented reality (AR) as the next win for Apple.
Even if AR is the next ‘thing’, Apple will not be a leader it will be (as it usually is, a follower). Apple uses it’s market share and design ability to make an existing product better and charge more for it: that technique will not apply to AR.
AR is not just a rethinking of existing hardware. AR is asking the customer to change and change is always a challenge. I am not saying it will not happen, it is just that Apple is uniquely unqualified to be a leader in the business of change.
Apple is no longer a spring chicken. When it recognizes a need for innovation in a particular area it buys an existing innovative company rather than expecting innovation to come out of itself. It is not a knock against Apple that is just the way things are done in a mature company. Innovation and risk taking are no longer virtues in such a company. If you want risk go to a start-up. If you want return on investment go to a company like Apple.
For AR to succeed it will have to adapt to customer’s very rapidly. Test marketing is one thing, the real market is another thing altogether. The companies that start the AR business will not be the same companies to profit from the AR business: that assumes that there ever will be an AR business other than at a niche level.
The reality is that Apple is the new Microsoft, Apple will either adapt to that or die.