Do we pay more for Uber in Canada? Base fare is about $8, plus 40¢ per minute and about $3.50 per mile. (all US dollars)

Seriously?? Where I live — and I think these rates are more or less standard in the US, outside of New York City — Uber has a $5 minimum (base) fare and costs 90 cents a mile plus 15 cents a minute, plus a $1.50 “booking fee.”

I thought the plan was to sell the cars.

Quite the contrary, actually: the plan is to sell the service. Neither Uber nor Lyft has addressed the question of who, exactly, will own the cars used for said service, but I’m guessing they’ll mostly be fleet-owned vehicles, much like taxis are today. (And at least in Lyft’s case, I think GM will likely retain ownership of the physical vehicles.)

That was a tough sell in 2005 — they were way too soon.

Totally get where you’re coming from here: I’ve either worked for or founded/co-founded three different companies that were each about a decade ahead of their time (not in the mapping/GPS space, but still).

I also understand the diffusion of innovation curve and expect the autonomous car to have a really short window except in the most congested cities where they are most practical. To the passenger I’m sure it will get old really fast making the business dependent on cost savings to survive.

Hmmm. First of all, I think you’re underestimating just how bad traffic gets in the top 25 metro areas today, and I think you could expand it to 40 as well. The value-add from the passenger end, however, is multifaceted. AVs are virtually certain to get free access to all existing HOV and managed-toll lanes, and will probably end up getting their own dedicated lanes at some point. Assuming all of these cars travel at synchronized speeds, even minor slowdowns could largely disappear, let alone bona fide traffic (meaning the bumper-to-bumper variety).

I’m not clear what you mean in your second sentence, but the main point of driverless vehicles is to eliminate the need for personal vehicle ownership. The two biggest purchases made by consumers in the Western world are homes and cars, and only one of the two works as an investment. Most middle- and upper-middle-class families today spend about $1,400-$1,800 per month on their cars, factoring in loan payments, insurance, gas and general maintenance — all this for vehicles that, on average, are used a mere four percent of the time — and start depreciating the instant they’re driven off the lot. (NB: I’m assuming, for argument’s sake, that these families are traditional nuclear ones, with still-married parents who each drive a separate vehicle.) In utilitarian terms, this is a colossal waste — and that’s before you get into just how much land is wasted on parking, whether it’s surface lots or parking garages — plus individual cars get more expensive, not less, the more you use them, e.g. your warranty expires and you have to start making repair and maintenance costs out of pocket. Which brings me to a couple of fallacies in your argument…

He will likely start with a used car which is a hit and miss proposition.

Actually, it’s not, at least if he buys the right car — and you yourself explained how to do via purchase of a Toyota. Modern Toyotas and Hondas can routinely be used for 150K miles or more with zero mechanical problems other than those that should be taken care of during standard servicing (e.g. timing belts). The highest-quality Toyotas — the Land Cruiser in particular — are barely even broken in at 200,000 miles. Also, if your son wants a “sporty” Toyota, he can buy a used Scion FR-S, which will retain their value exceptionally well because they’re so commonly used for street racing and autocross and the lot, as are Miatas. (Note: Toyota discontinued the Scion marque for the 2017 model year, but added the FR-S to its own lineup as the Toyota 86.)

One of my current cars is a VW I bought cash. I saved 5K on the $28k price and all the financing fees. It’s a diesel and will easily last 500,ooo clicks.

Well … this is a bit OT, but I think you made some faulty assumptions here. First, paying cash isn’t always the best idea. I bought an Audi last year with a 0% loan (through Audi’s finance arm), so I can invest the money I would’ve otherwise spent on it — including the interest — on other things. (Btw the loan had minimal financing fees associated with it: under $500 IIRC.) Second, VW has frankly gone downhill in recent years reliability-wise, ever since they shifted vehicle production from Wolfsburg to numerous plants throughout the world, so I wouldn’t necessarily assume your diesel will last 500K clicks, particularly if it was manufactured in Mexico, as is now the case for most VWs sold in North America.

I hate to say it, but it was the American made cars that killed me before that. They depreciated so much faster and I kept them too long. Live and learn.

I can’t disagree there. Despite American cars markedly improving quality-wise, their resale value is still crap, largely because they continue to sell so many vehicles to rental-car fleets. And finally:

But driving will then become more of a status symbol than ever and make a huge comeback before the late majority phase even gets going.

I don’t think that’s a prediction that can be accurately made at this juncture. For all we know at this stage, driving one’s own car could become as much of a societal no-no as smoking cigarettes, namely because it’s vastly more likely to result in one’s death or serious injury than using a self-driving vehicle. Also, lower-income Americans will likely be the last to convert to automated vehicles, so the real status symbol may be having “Jeeves,” your AV’s version of Siri, driving you around town while you sit in the back seat and play video games on your Oculus Rift 5.0.