When Will The Next Geomagnetic Polarity Reversal Event Occur?
[ I’m posting this reply to an article on Substack regarding the current, very fast ramping, geomagnetic minima / excursion / polarity reversal (GMEPR) event (popularly referred to as ‘pole flip’) because it is too long to post as a comment there. ]
You wrote:
“Uncertainty quantification indicates a 67% probability that the reversal occurs between 2023–2027, with a median prediction of 2025.”
About a year ago I asked Bard to calculate a ‘flip’ date for the rapidly ramping, geomagnetic minima / excursion / polarity reversal event that is occurring right now. I’ve included the formula (below) that it used to calculate a potential ‘flip’ date range.
Noting that geomagnetic field strength (GFS) has been declining since 3,000 BCE.
The speed of this decline significantly increased during the past 400 years.
It has radically increased during the past decade from 5% a decade to 5% a year (with ongoing acceleration).
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PATH ONE [ calculated in 2023 using the 25 nT variable ]
Acknowledging that GFS in 3,000 BCE was 100.8 nT; that GFS in 2023 is 25–65 nT and assuming (for the purpose of this exercise) that the rate of decline hasn’t fluctuated since 3,000 BCE and that it will not continue to accelerate: how long would it take for geomagnetic field strength (GFS) to decline to 5 nT?
RESPONSE
Initial Field Strength: 25 nT. Target Field Strength: 5 nT. Assuming a constant rate of decline. Calculate the rate of decline (R) per year: R = (Initial Field Strength — Target Field Strength) / Number of Years. R = (25 nT — 5 nT) / Number of Years. R = 20 nT / Number of Years. Now, solve for the Number of Years (T) to reach 5 nT: 5 nT = 20 nT / Number of Years. Number of Years = 20 nT / 5 nT.
Number of Years = 4 years.
2023 + 4 years = 2027
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PATH TWO [ calculated in 2023 using the 65 nT variable ]
Acknowledging that GFS in 3,000 BCE was 100 nT; assuming that GFS in 2023 is 65nT and assuming (for this exercise) that the rate of decline hasn’t fluctuated since 3,000 BCE: how long would it take for geomagnetic field strength to decline to 5 nT?
RESPONSE
Initial Field Strength: 65 nT. Target Field Strength: 5 nT. Assuming a constant rate of decline. Calculate the rate of decline (R) per year: R = (Initial Field Strength — Target Field Strength) / Number of Years. R = (65 nT — 5 nT) / Number of Years. R = 60 nT / Number of Years. Now, solve for the Number of Years to reach 5 nT: 5 nT = 60 nT / Number of Years. Number of Years = 60 nT / 5 nT.
Number of Years = 12 years.
2023 + 12 years = 2035.
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PATH ONE (based on current 25 nT) = 2027.
PATH TWO (based on current 65 nT) = 2035.
Noting that as early as 1976, research projected that a GMEPR event would occur during the 2030s.
Noting that at the approx middle and end of the 26k year cycle of equinoctial precession, a deadly and destructive geomagnetic minima / excursion / polarity reversal event occurs like clockwork (which explains the enduring dread of the number 13 around the globe and even today).
Noting that the 5 nT ‘nearly zero’ figure is a proxy for ‘really low geomagnetic field strength’’; that a deadly / destructive GMEPR event can occur before GFS reaches that low point (at around 20 nT) and that a GMEPR event is near peak right now. The next 10 years (on the low end) to 30 year (on the high end) will be very interesting.
During these events that make tossed salad out of everything terrestrial and human, GFS (which terrestrial lifeforms necessarily / literally depend on for sanity, physical health, reproductive ability and life itself) radically crashes; mass extincts life and places the last remaining iteration of human (badly broken us) in very real existential crisis. Over and over and over.
These deadly / destructive GMEPR events have an approx average 13k year periodicity with lesser (still deadly / destructive) events scale invariantly occurring evenly distributed between the whoppers, like the geomagnetic minima event, sandwiched between two supersized Miyake events, that crashed Mayan culture; wreaked havoc around the world and killed countless millions globally.
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“Nine such extreme solar storms — known as Miyake Events — have now been identified as having occurred over the last 15,000 years.”
Noting that even mildly elevated solar winds (400–500 km / sec) and moderate coronal mass ejections that rattle the geomagnetic field, trigger significantly increased hospitalization for clinical depression, acute anxiety, episodic psychosis, suicidal ideation, debilitating migraines, premature birth, stillborn birth, cardiac events, stroke, accident and violence related injuries and a much longer list of medical emergencies.
They also frequently trigger social disruption, increased seismic intensity, increased and catastrophic weather events and increased crustacean / whale beachings and migrating flock collapse.
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Noting that the most recent minima / excursion / reversal event occurred 13k years ago over an approx 1,600 year period (Gothenburg excursion).
Approx 13k years after the most recent whopper event occurred, GFS is rapidly declining again and right on time here at the tail end of the precessional cycle: 50% over the past 400 years; now passing the tipping point and with the speed of this decline radically accelerating during the PAST DECADE (with ongoing acceleration).
Noting that as GFS is radically crashing, 65% of vertebrae species, 45% of the global insect population, 85% of freshwater fish and 90% of ocean biomass have extincted since 1970 and that this crash also accelerated during the PAST DECADE (with ongoing acceleration).
Noting that as GFS and terrestrial species are rapidly crashing, human sperm viability is correspondingly / radically crashing too (as expected during an extreme GFS crash): around 55% since 1970 with the speed of this crash radically accelerating by more than double during the PAST DECADE to 2.64% a year (with ongoing acceleration); that not even factoring in the extreme effects of this crash on terrestrial operating systems, H. Sapiens are functionally extinct in 174.5 years (if it isn’t already) and that severe to extreme human population reduction occurred during (at least) three other whopper GMEPR events.
Noting that as GFS, terrestrial species and human sperm viability are radically crashing, average IQ, conceptual ability, reading comprehension, attention span and memory formation, retention and access have all been correspondingly crashing too during the PAST DECADE as physical / mental health, in general, is rapidly crashing.
Noting that as GFS, terrestrial species, human sperm viability and human physiological / neurological patterns and processes are all rapidly crashing, the AMOC has been crashing toward a stop during the PAST DECADE; that a full stop is projected (with 95% certainty) by midcentury (possibly as early as 2035) and that the AMOC crashed to a full stop during (at least) three other GMEPR events (with plummeting temp fluctuations in the 10–15 C / 18–27 F range in the Northern zone and even more extreme heat in the temperate zone within a decade of stop).
Noting that as GFS, terrestrial species, human sperm viability, the human body/mind and the AMOC are all rapidly crashing in synch, heat is dangerously soaring (by way of crashing GFS + re-radiated atmospheric heat that GFS crash causes); that heat soared during (at least) three previous GMEPR events (a 22 F increase occurred during the Gothenburg minima / excursion / reversal event 13k years ago with half occurring in just 15 years); that up to a nine F increase was projected as early as 2001 and that NOAA recently projected up to a 12 F increase this century (with half by midcentury).
Noting that modern mainstream science has been studying geomagnetic minima / excursion / polarity reversals since the mid 1600s.
Noting that there have been six whopper excursion events during just the past 70k years.
Here’s info re: the two most researched minima / excursion/ polarity reversal events:
LASCHAMP EXCURSION
42,000 years ago during which occurred: a 95–100% decline of geomagnetic strength, massive exposure of terrestrial lifeforms to solar, galactic and interstellar radiation, the 2nd largest volcanic explosion during the past 100k years, glacier maximum and mass extinction including the functional extinction of the Neanderthal species of ‘human’ in significant part because of a dangerous increase in radiation that shut down reproductive function
GOTHENBURG EXCURSION
13,000 years ago during which occurred: massive global volcanic and seismic activity; soaring temperature (22 degree F increase w/ half of this occurring in just 15 years); the AMOC stopped (triggering plummeting temps in the 10–15 C / 18–27 F range in the northern region and even hotter temps in the temperate zone within a decade of stopping); the extinction of 72% of large mammal species (and countless smaller species); human population reduction; global collapse of culture / civilization and very real human existential crisis.
Noting that during the rapid ramping of the Gothenburg excursion event, Earth was bombarded by a colossal comet fragment storm from Alaska to New Guinea with a very wide strewnfield. Comet bombardment may or may not be a consistent feature of these whopper geomagnetic minima / excursion / polarity reversal events.
Here’s some science for search keywords:
“The strength of Earth’s magnetic field in the past, recorded by rocks and sediments, provides a proxy for past flux of ultraviolet radiation (UVR) to Earth’s surface due to the role of the field in modulating stratigraphic ozone. About 40,000 years ago, mammalian fossils in Australia and Eurasia record an important die-off of large mammals that included Neanderthals in Europe. In the Americas and Europe, a large mammalian die-off appears to have occurred ~13,000 years ago. Both die-offs can be linked to minima in Earth’s magnetic field strength implying that UVR flux variations to Earth’s surface influenced mammalian evolution. For the last ~200,000 years, estimates of the timing of branching episodes in the human evolutionary tree, from modern and fossil DNA and Y chromosomes, can be linked to minima in field strength, which implies a long-term role for UVR in human evolution.
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2018RG000629
Google this report for info about the current rapid crashing of GFS as a geomagnetic excursion / polarity event is rapidly ramping again:
“The Earth’s core is undergoing a dramatic change with geomagnetic field strength dropping by 40% over the last 400 years, and satellite observations showing the field weakening ten times faster than previously calculated. These changes are a precursor to a common geological phenomenon known as a geomagnetic polarity reversal, where the north and south magnetic poles of the Earth reverse. Geomagnetic polarity reversals significantly decrease the strength of the magnetic field, thereby considerably increasing the interaction of the solar wind with the Earth’s atmosphere and biosphere. The purpose of this research is to answer if the United States is prepared for the impacts to national security resulting from the next geomagnetic polarity reversal.”
[ excerpt from: A Research Report Submitted to the Faculty of the Air Force Air Command and Staff College by Tyler J. Williams, Captain, U.S. Air Force. 2015. Approved for public release ]
Noting that the “40%” can be bumped up to around 50% (or more) because the report is a decade old and because the speed of this crash has been rapidly accelerating for the past decade.
Noting that Paul Renne, director of the Berkeley Geochronology Center and University of California Berkeley professor-in-residence of Earth and Planetary Science, has written that the whopper GMEPR event that occurred approx 800k years ago ramped to peak in approx 70 years and that:
“We should be thinking more about what the biologic effects [ of a geomagnetic polarity reversal ] would be.”
The mouse has run all the way up the clock again and there is nowhere to go but down so down we will go. Noting that nine other iterations of human extincted horribly during just the past 300k years as a direct effect of exoterresterial / terrestrial conditions that nearly precisely mirror what is occurring now as yet another 100% normal geomagnetic minima / excursion /polarity reversal is fast ramping.
Tick tock.
