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I do think it is important to be as accurate as possible when it comes to making predictions about what will happen in the future. or it tends to play into the hands of those who have an incentive to minimize the risks of anthropogenic global warming (AGW). In particular, I have seen many dire predictions regarding the degree to which sea levels are likely to rise. Based on the increase in sea levels between 1870 and the present, and particularly the last 30 years or so, the actual increase has been at the low end of the predicted changes. Many people now warn of sea level increases of “as much as” six feet by the end of this century, but the research I’ve done suggest that the LIKELY increase will be between six inches and two feet. Now, even this degree of change in the sea level would be disastrous for, say, New York City, Miami and Miami Beach, and New Orleans.

In order to maintain credibility, now and in the future, I would really advocate that we make predictions regarding the effects of AGW that include both the low end and the high end of the anticipated effects.

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