Good luck and goodbye — for now.

Dear Listeners,

It’s been a great pleasure to share with you some of the best and brightest in finance and economics through this podcast medium. When starting out and to this day, it’s clear the only thing investors need to get right is the inflation vs. deflation question.

As Dr. Ben Hunt said, “We all have something to say”. As it turns out, based on the performance of our guests, we couldn’t have said it better ourselves. This experience has been indeed humbling, to say the least. We’re proud of being able to offer an alternative to the mainstream financial media.

During the Fall of 2019 when we launched, two things had become apparent. It was 10 years after the Global Financial Crisis and the economy was still barely limping along; and that’s with the “emergency stimulus” that continued years after any true alarm bells were going off.

First, focusing in on monetary policy wasn’t just something that mattered — it was the ONLY thing that mattered. Next, it was clear years of warnings from financial luminaries about NIRP, ZIRP, QE, and financialization were either early, or just plain wrong. And yes, there is a difference in this case.

This wasn’t about high valuations. We’ve seen bull and bear markets throughout history and that will continue as fear and greed will always rule the day. This was about something else; artificially severing price from value. This was about the theory central banks interfered so much in “markets” they could never unwind or pull back.

It was anyone's guess as to what the trigger might be. Our timing was rather fortuitous, as things have accelerated at a pace much faster than most expected. Central bank balance sheets are up, while rates have plummeted further. And while it pains us to see the suffering currently going on, it’s clear many of these pundits were indeed simply ahead of the curve.

For those who have read Einhorn’s article in 2012 along with other similar pieces, maybe even ruminating on them for years, you can understand the feeling. We’d like to thank him for allowing the use of his tag-line and even appearing on the show to offer some thoughts. We couldn’t be more grateful.

There’s only one mandatory question for all guests on the podcast: what were you doing in 2008? The GFC was very personal for people, especially those working in finance. After watching Lehman collapse, it was a time for many to question everything once believed about markets. Years from now, the question on a financial podcast might be: what were you doing in 2020?

Looking to the next chapter, it’s clear a paradigm shift is under-weigh. Now, you might be wondering where this goes next. While the podcast had a certain theme that ran throughout, the truth is there’s several outcomes which could happen. You should always think in probabilities. But after listening to a handful of episodes, listeners should be able to surmise what the future may hold.

Either way, the road to recovery should prove slow, with false starts along the way, and will probably include more “coats of paint” in the form of trillions in stimulus — both fiscal and monetary. Truly, “whatever it takes”.

We’ll leave you with the latest piece from Einhorn entitled “The Dam Has Burst”, which was written as a private note to investors, but some of which was posted on several online blogs. This and similar notes from various other well-respected managers, lend a glimpse into the next possible long-term phase of markets.

Just as when we launched, the timing feels right to pause. At this point, The Jelly Donut Podcast has achieved its goal. Mission accomplished, for now.

We’d like to thank all of the guests, listeners, sponsors, and stakeholders who helped make the show a success. We’ll be on hiatus for an indefinite period — until there’s a turning point in markets or when creativity sparks, whenever that time might be.

With that we’d like to say good luck and goodbye — for now.

— The Jelly Donut Podcast

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