The 2018 Governor's Race: The Ol’ Fish Hook, A Couple of Tunnels, and a Really Fast Train
As the calendar turns to October, we are now 13 months away from electing a new Governor of the Great State of California. Two of the names that will appear on the ballot (at least on the primary ballot) will be familiar ones to residences residents of the state’s major metropolitan areas. Gavin Newsom, former Mayor of San Francisco, and Antonio Villaraigosa, former Mayor of Los Angeles.
These two former big city mayors will put California’s fairly new top two primary system to an interesting test. With this test, here are several things to watch:
- The primary fight.
- The strategy of each candidate.
- How Governor Brown’s legacy projects could be used as the wedge that will give one of these Democrats the edge over the other.
The Primary:
Since 2011, California has had a top two primary system or “jungle” primary. Simply put, the two candidates with the most votes will advance to the General Election. Period. Not one candidate from each of the two establishment parties, just the top two candidates.
This means we can have a general election with two members of the same party. Since no prominent Republican has entered the race, the voters could face a ballot with two Democrats at the top. Newsom and Villaraigosa are those two candidates, if current polling trends hold up.
This means voters in the rest of California could experience the “San Francisco ballot”; blue vs bluer. The question then becomes, do these candidates swing further left or do they tact to the center to win the general election?
Here is where #2 comes into play.
The Strategy:
In statewide elections, California’s partisan lines can be drawn roughly right down the middle of the state; the blue coastal counties and red inland counties (with a couple exceptions).
Below is a map of the 2014 Governor’s race to demonstrate.
Since Newsom and Villaraigosa are from the two big urban vote centers (the Bay Area and the LA metro area, respectively) they will be dividing the normally united Democratic coastal counties. This means they will need to find voters elsewhere in the state.
A couple of months ago Joel Fox, editor of the Fox & Hounds, wrote a piece about the potential for Villaraigosa to adopt the “fish hook” strategy.
This strategy was one that was employed by Republicans in the state for some time. In fact, Senator Bob Dole tried to use this strategy to turn California red in the 1996 presidential election.
The strategy looks to drive up turnout in the more rural and conservative Central Valley and “hook” into the coast by winning Orange County and/or San Diego County.
The logic behind Villaraigosa adopting this strategy is that he is a conservative Democrat, whereas Newsom is more liberal. This could be appealing to Republican voters in the Valley and, given his name recognition in Southern California, he could get a boost in Orange and San Diego Counties.
As Fox puts it in the conclusion of his article:
“ Newsom understands the value of scoring well in populous Los Angeles and is spending much campaign time there. If this old GOP strategy can work for Villaraigosa he would have to continue making his case in the Central Valley while hoping the residents of Los Angeles who know him well think of him fondly.”
Fox couldn’t be more right about Villaraigosa needing to spend his time, money, and manpower in the Valley. Two things to watch if Villaraigosa goes this way are:
- Does Newsom go for votes in the Valley and attempt to essentially break the “fish hook”?
- How do Jerry Brown’s legacy projects play in the Valley?
The first question is one to watch and we won’t have a real indication on this until Election Day is a little closer. The way to see if Newsom does attempt to break up the fish hook is to see if he spends time there. In campaigns, a candidate’s time is their most valuable asset and the Newsom team knows this so keep an eye on his travel calendar.
The second question is a little more complex.
A Couple of Tunnels and a Really Fast Train
Governor Jerry Brown is still very popular as he enters to late stages of his current second (fourth total) term as the Golden State’s chief executive. According to a Morning Consult poll from April 2017, Governor Brown enjoys a 58% approval rating. But two of his legacy projects may serve as the subjects that Newsom and Villaraigosa use to pull voters into their camps.
There are two generational public works initiatives that are seen as Gov. Jerry Brown’s legacy projects; High Speed Rail and the Twin Delta Tunnels. It can’t be forgotten that Jerry Brown grew up in the Governor’s Mansion when his father was running the state. Pat Brown’s legacy is all around us. From the interstate highway system, to our higher education system, and to the way water moves in the state. All of that had an impact on Jerry Brown and these projects can be seen as his attempt to leave a lasting legacy on the state, in two areas where his father’s influence was critical; transportation and water.
The Governor’s plan to build two twin tunnels under the Delta has drawn a lot of criticism from residence in the area. This $17 billion project is meant to more effectively move water from the wetter north to the more arid Central Valley and to Southern California (see map below).
The project’s future, however, has been called into question recently since a key water agency’s board (Westland Water District) voted against the plan 7–1. With critical votes up coming from the Metropolitan Water District (Los Angeles), Santa Clara Valley Water District (headquartered in San Jose) and several other key agencies, many are wondering if Brown’s project will fail on his watch. Leaving the open ended question to Newsom and Villaraigosa; “what will you do with this plan?”
According to the UC Berkeley IGS poll from September, a third of electorate is still undecided on a candidate and many of those voters list the state’s water policy as a major concern.
Newsom, in a 2015 interview with the LA Times, said he would likely ground the Delta Tunnels project while Villaraigosa hasn’t made many comments about the project.
Contrast that with the High Speed Rail project, which the former LA mayor is very supportive of. Newsom, on the other hand, is much more skeptical of the project and would likely ground it as well (see The LA Times story above). If elected, Newsom may feel differently since ground has already broken and track is being laid. Nevertheless, this project has a lot of enemies evident by the continuous barrage of lawsuits it faces.
In conclusion, keep an eye on how these two projects may be used to create some distance between Newsom and Villaraigosa during the primary and, if they both advance, in the general election as well. This race may quickly become a referendum on Jerry Brown’s effort to join his father, Pat Brown, on California’s Mt. Rushmore.
