Technological convergence 2040: apocalypse or utopia?

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Future of Work & Society — Towards the quaternary economy

15 min readFeb 17, 2024

Technological convergence is a phenomenon that fascinates as much as it concerns. In France, we are not very aware of it, and it is likely that you are discovering the subject with this article. Yet, if there is one thing to watch, it is this famous convergence! We have started a phase of multiple revolutions that could upheave our world and our way of living, and that’s why it’s essential to step back and analyze the stakes and implications that we will have to manage. In this context, I propose a dive into the intricacies and challenges of a universe we do not see, yet structures our future every day.

What is technological convergence?

Technological convergence can be defined as the trend of technologies to come together, integrate, and combine to create new products, services, uses, and challenges. This notion encompasses all NBICs: nanotechnologies, biotechnologies, information technologies, and cognitive sciences. The major aspect to keep in focus is the convergence between biology and physics, which creates rapid accelerations in fields like bio-robotics or quantum genetics.

The resulting innovations have the potential to radically transform our relationship with the world, the environment, and others. To be clearer, we are talking about making possible immortality, the cyborg human, the genetically programmed human, conscious AI, or the colonization of planets hostile to life…

But to take examples from our everyday life, closer to us, imagine for example a smartphone, with its instant facial or fingerprint recognition capability. This is a typical example of a product enabled by technological convergence, and yet, this functionality is just the tip of the iceberg. Behind a smartphone, there are components, cellular network, WiFi, touch technology, gyroscope, accelerometer, biometrics, etc. In total, thousands of different technologies, most of them critical to enable what a smartphone is!

In the same vein, here are some significant innovations resulting from complex technological convergence over the last 150 years:

the telephone (1876),
the radio (1895),
television (1927),
talking movies (1927),
the computer (1940),
the internet (1969),
the mobile phone (1973),
GPS (1978),
the web (1989),
the digital player (1997),
social networks (2000),
the smartphone (2007),
blockchain (2008),
autonomous vehicles (2010),
etc.

And since 2010, we can add the smartwatch, the 3D printer, drones, touch tablets, nanotechnologies, mixed reality, solid-state batteries, etc. It’s clearly accelerating, especially as each innovation becomes itself an object of technological convergence.

This convergence is the result of a historical process, rooted in the major scientific and industrial revolutions of the past. The emergence of the information society, thanks to advances in electronics, computing, and telecommunications, has laid the foundations of this new era. Today, we are witnessing the multiplication of technological innovations, affecting an increasing number of fields and sectors. The boundaries between disciplines are blurring, and innovations from technological convergence are spreading at an unprecedented speed.

Several key players play a crucial role in the development and dissemination of these converging technologies. Notably, Silicon Valley giants such as Google, Apple, Facebook, Amazon, Microsoft, OpenAI, or NVidia, which invest massively in the research and development of new technologies. Other players, such as Tesla, SpaceX, and Neuralink, led by Elon Musk, are also working towards the realization of technological advances in fields such as electric vehicles, space transportation, and brain-machine interfaces.

The major convergence: AI + XR + Blockchain

Among the major innovations that illustrate the trend of technological convergence, we find extended reality or XR (including VR, AR, MR), blockchain, and artificial intelligence (AI). These technologies have already begun to transform our society, and their impact will only amplify as their adoption extends. The technological convergence between these three technological pillars has the potential to create unprecedented synergies and opportunities.

For example, the combination of VR/AR and AI could enable the creation of immersive and interactive learning experiences, professional training, or therapy, tailored to the needs and abilities of each user. Similarly, the association of blockchain and AI could give birth to systems of transactions and smart contracts that operate autonomously and securely, without human intervention.

When I talk about web3 and the metaverse, I specifically refer to this convergence. The next internet will be more intuitive, immersive, and shared, and make no mistake, it will require these technologies more than any other! This story is already being written and should become legible (which does not mean desirable) by 2035. By the time it finds its place in society, we will be in the world of 2040, the future I spend my time envisioning with the Tomorrow team.

I am particularly interested in this convergence among all others, as I believe it will act as a catalyst for societal transformations and subsequent innovations. It will be somewhat the new software of humanity. I think that from this point, nothing can be controlled with certainty. It’s not desirable or wanted, but unfolding the threads, it’s the future that awaits us, in my opinion. Beyond this convergence, I study several others in parallel, to better understand our future.

I also take this opportunity to recommend an article I wrote for Christmas on quantum genetics, which I consider one of the most powerful convergences to come: The promises of quantum genetics.

Heads or tails: the possible innovations from the Major Convergence

The possibilities for upcoming innovations through the major convergence are endless, but because it’s important to illustrate to allow understanding, I propose below two series of 10 innovations. The first series aims to be more humanistic and reasoned, while the second series shows the dystopian possibilities which will be as many pitfalls to avoid.

TOWARDS A DESIRABLE FUTURE

10 desirable innovations resulting from convergence:

Personalized immersive education: Learning platforms that use virtual reality to create immersive learning environments, artificial intelligence to personalize the educational journey according to the needs and progress of each user, and blockchain to securely and transparently certify skills and knowledge acquired.
Decent financial markets: Fully decentralized and transparent financial systems, where blockchain ensures the security and transparency of transactions, AI optimizes investment strategies in real-time, and augmented reality allows users to intuitively visualize and interact with market data.
Predictive and augmented healthcare: Health platforms that combine AI to analyze health data in real time, augmented reality to assist doctors during diagnostics and surgical interventions, and blockchain to secure the sharing of medical records between healthcare professionals and patients.
Participatory democratic governance: Voting and democratic decision-making systems using blockchain to ensure the integrity and transparency of electoral processes, AI to analyze proposals and their potential impact, and VR/AR to organize engaging virtual assemblies.
Smart and ecological cities: Urban infrastructures where AI optimally manages resources and flows (energy, transport, waste), blockchain ensures the transparency and reliability of energy transactions between users, and mixed reality aids in urban planning and citizen engagement.
Augmented therapy and well-being: Virtual and augmented reality applications that, combined with AI, offer personalized therapies for the treatment of psychological disorders or for improving well-being, secured by blockchain protocols guaranteeing patient data confidentiality.
Fair and transparent commerce: Online commerce platforms where blockchain ensures complete traceability of products, from their origin to their sale, AI optimizes logistics and customer experience, and augmented reality allows consumers to visualize products in their personal space before purchase.
Mass personalized production: Smart factories, of type 4.0 or more, using AI to design and manufacture personalized products on a large scale, blockchain to certify the authenticity and origin of materials, and virtual reality to allow customers to participate in the design process.
Collaborative space exploration: Space exploration missions where mixed reality allows scientists from around the world to work together virtually, AI optimizes flight trajectories and analyzes collected data, and blockchain secures communication and shared scientific data, while enabling decentralized communities organized by mission objectives.
Automated jurisprudence and mediation: Conflict resolution systems using AI to analyze cases and propose resolutions based on precedents, blockchain to record agreements and verdicts inalterably, and virtual reality to simulate hearings and facilitate remote mediation.

TOWARDS A DYSTOPIAN FUTURE

10 undesirable innovations resulting from convergence:

Omnipresent surveillance: Integrated surveillance systems using augmented reality to identify and track citizens in real-time, artificial intelligence to analyze their behavior and predict potential crimes, and blockchain to create an unalterable registry of all individual activities.
Large-scale cognitive manipulation: Virtual reality platforms that, coupled with sophisticated AI algorithms, are used to subtly influence users’ opinions and behaviors, with data stored on the blockchain to optimize future manipulation campaigns.
Inequalities exacerbated by technological access: A society where access to advanced AI, augmented reality, and blockchain technologies is monopolized by an elite, creating an insurmountable digital and socio-economic divide between the “connected” and the “disconnected”.
Autonomization of lethal weapons: The use of drones and autonomous robots equipped with AI for warfare, with life or death decisions made without human intervention, and operations securely recorded on the blockchain, making accountability difficult.
Automated disinformation and propaganda: Disinformation campaigns designed by AIs, massively disseminated via virtual and augmented realities to create altered reality echoes, with traces of their origins secured by the blockchain, making the source virtually undetectable.
Exploitation of privacy for profit: Massive collection of personal data via augmented reality devices, analyzed by AI to create detailed user profiles, and sold on blockchain markets to advertisers or political actors without explicit consent. Okay, we’re already not far from this one…
Massive social isolation: A society where human interactions are primarily mediated by virtual reality, leading to deep social isolation, with human relationships and experiences increasingly dictated and influenced by AI algorithms. Health mental risks and communitarianism galore.
Automated and impersonal justice: Judicial systems where AI makes legal decisions without empathy or human context, recording and executing judgments via blockchain, eliminating any possibility of appeal or nuance in the legal process.
Absolute control of the labor market: The use of AI to monitor, evaluate, and control every aspect of worker performance, with work contracts and remunerations managed via blockchain, leading to a total dehumanization of the workplace.
Technological and cultural colonization: The imposition of specific technologies (AI, blockchain, VR/AR) as global standards without consideration for local contexts, eradicating cultural diversity and imposing a unique model of tech-centered civilization.

Whether desirable or not, these innovations will come from our present, and they are all possible. Yet another occasion to underline the importance of ethical reflection and strict regulation around technological convergence to prevent innovations from veering towards socially and morally questionable outcomes. Waiting for this real awareness, I detail the 7 major challenges to address today.

The 7 deadly sins of technological convergence

Far from being neutral, the accelerated convergence of technologies poses numerous societal challenges, which we can group into these 7 categories:

#1. Cultural uniformity and the preservation of diversity

While technological convergence facilitates exchanges and communication across the world, it also raises the issue of cultural uniformity. Indeed, with the globalization of content and platforms, local cultures may be threatened by the predominance of certain norms and values conveyed by digital giants. The risks should not be underestimated: loss of cultural identity, marginalization of minority cultures, impoverishment of cultural heritage, domination of digital giants… In the face of these dangers, it is crucial to support initiatives that value cultural diversity and promote the expression of different identities through the production and dissemination of local and authentic content.

#2. Privacy in the face of technology’s omnipresence

Technological convergence, by enabling massive data collection on individuals, raises the question of privacy protection. Users are increasingly exposed to extensive surveillance, whether by companies or governments. The dangers related to this omnipresence are multiple: massive data collection, intrusion into private life, infringement on freedom of expression, theft and misuse of data, discrimination, and profiling. Facing these dangers, it is essential to strengthen the mechanisms for protecting personal data, to raise awareness among citizens about the risks related to the use of new technologies, and to implement regulations that ensure respect for our privacy.

#3. Planned obsolescence and the race for novelty

Technological convergence comes with an endless race for innovation and novelty, which generates negative consequences, such as planned obsolescence of products. This practice, which consists of deliberately reducing the lifespan of products to encourage their renewal, leads to excessive consumption of resources, increased production of waste, social and economic inequalities exacerbated by the race for novelty, and a culture of permanent dissatisfaction. To counter these dangers, it is essential to promote more sustainable economic models, based on eco-design, repairability, and durability of products, as well as to raise consumer awareness about the importance of responsible consumption and the adoption of behaviors more respectful of the environment and resources.

#4. The digital divide and equitable access to technologies

Technological convergence does not benefit everyone equally. The digital divide, which refers to inequalities in access and use of information and communication technologies, remains a major challenge. This divide is due to several factors such as income, education, geography, and age. The dangers of this divide are multiple: increase in social and economic inequalities, exclusion and marginalization, loss of competitiveness of less digital territories, difficulties in accessing information and culture, reinforcement of territorial inequalities. To combat these dangers, it is essential to implement public policies aimed at reducing the digital divide and ensuring equitable access to technologies for all individuals and territories. This includes the development of infrastructure, training in digital skills, and promoting digital inclusion.

#5. Environmental challenges and the management of natural resources

Technological convergence raises major environmental challenges, particularly in terms of energy consumption, depletion of natural resources, and production of electronic waste. The increasing consumption of carbon-based energy contributes to global warming and the depletion of energy resources, the extraction of materials has an impact on the environment (deforestation, soil and water pollution) and can lead to social conflicts in producing countries; and the production of electronic waste is often poorly recycled and can contain toxic substances that pollute the environment and threaten human health. In the face of these challenges, it is essential to promote greener and eco-responsible technologies, as well as to rethink the management of natural resources to limit negative impacts on our planet. This implies, in particular, encouraging research and development of energy-efficient solutions, promoting the circular economy and recycling of materials, and raising user awareness of responsible and sustainable technology use.

#6. The impact on employment and the upheavals in the labor market

Technological convergence can lead to upheavals in the labor market, with the disappearance of certain professions, the emergence of new ones, but also the transformation of working conditions and the necessity of lifelong learning. It is therefore crucial to anticipate these changes and support workers in this transition, notably by developing continuous training and adapting employment policies, but also by supporting the emergence of the quaternary sector, in a society where work and employment will never again have the same meaning.

#7. Dependence on technologies and the preservation of our autonomy

Technological convergence can lead to excessive dependence on technologies, with potentially harmful consequences on our health and well-being: anxiety, depression or social isolation, but also musculoskeletal disorders, sleep problems, or vision disorders. Beyond health risks, we can talk about the risk of loss of skills, increased vulnerability to cyber threats, alterations in interpersonal relationships, permanent distraction, and especially the danger of manipulation and addiction. It is important to preserve our autonomy and promote a reasoned and balanced use of technologies, in order not to sacrifice our freedom and our ability to think for ourselves.

How to prepare for technological convergence?

Technological convergence is a reality of everyday life. But the one that is coming will forever change our civilization, and it’s safe to say that we will want to be prepared for it, if not able to choose to refuse this convergence…

“The world we have created is a product of our thinking level, but the problems it engenders cannot be solved at the same level.”
Albert Einstein

Our mission must remain to create a desirable, balanced, and sustainable future in the face of technological convergence. Inspired by our rich past, anchored in our present, and turned towards a future yet to be written, we have the power to shape a world where technological convergence serves everyone, and not at the expense of some. Throughout the ages, humanity’s great advances have been guided by inspired dreams and a will for progress. Today, we have the responsibility to chart a responsible and inclusive path for our common future.

First, we must collectively become aware of the importance of education and awareness of the challenges of technological convergence. We must understand these challenges, share them with our neighbors, friends, and families, and integrate them into our educational systems. The future belongs to those who are ready to learn, adapt, and embrace these new technologies with discernment and responsibility.

To go further, it is time to rethink our legislation and public policies regarding technologies. Governments must be the guardians of our rights and well-being, anticipating the consequences of technological convergence and implementing laws and regulations adapted to protect each of us. We can expect better from states than the GDPR: a culture of responsible innovation would be a thousand times more effective than laws always lagging behind technology actors.

Companies and investors must be encouraged to prioritize projects that place ethics and social responsibility at the heart of their approach. We must reward and favor those who develop products and services respectful of human values, fundamental rights, and the environment. Let’s be conscious and demanding consumers, supporting companies that share our values and our vision of a balanced and sustainable future.

We are all concerned by technological convergence, and it is together that we can make the most of it while preserving our quality of life and the balance of our planet. It is time to build bridges between governments, companies, academic institutions, non-governmental organizations, and citizens. Through open dialogue and international cooperation, we can shape an inclusive and solidary technological future.

Conclusion

While some innovations may still seem like science fiction, it is undeniable that technological convergence is underway and that, gradually, it is imposing itself in our daily lives and seems inevitable. These developments offer unprecedented opportunities to rethink our society, improve our quality of life, and solve complex problems we face in health, education, the environment, and economic development.

Thus, projects such as the colonization of Mars, the implantation of electronic chips under the skin, or even the fusion of human and artificial intelligence, are today seriously considered by researchers and companies in the sector. The timelines for the realization of these projects vary, some being achievable in the coming years, while others will still require several decades of research and development.

However, it is crucial to consider the challenges and issues raised by this convergence, particularly regarding ethics, the preservation of cultural diversity, privacy, equity, and environmental sustainability. Technological convergence should not be seen as an end in itself but as a means to build a better and more balanced future for all, placing humans at the center of concerns.

It is more essential than ever to foster an informed and constructive public debate around technological convergence, involving all society actors, such as researchers, entrepreneurs, policymakers, citizens, and non-governmental organizations. This dialogue must allow sharing knowledge, identifying best practices, and defining common strategies to ensure that tomorrow’s technologies serve the collective well-being and the protection of our planet.

Echoing General’s call 80 years ago, I want to end with this updated appeal:

Faced with the accelerating convergence, I call for it to be in the interest of humanity, and not just a few. This call is not one of despair but of hope and deep conviction that, guided by the principles of solidarity, ethics, and shared progress, we can steer the course of this convergence towards a horizon that deserves us all. This fight, carried by the unwavering will to preserve humanity in what it has most precious, is mine, and I invite you to join it, so that we never give in to adversity and always work for the advent of a future where every human being can fully thrive.

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