Avoiding the £200bn bill of upgrading the street level electricity grid
Why I write this blog:
As the world strives to achieve net zero goals, the transition from fossil fuels to clean energy is a crucial step. This shift requires a significant increase in electricity consumption by approximately 2–3 times the current levels, and the grid is the constraint to achieving this. In the United Kingdom, we need to wait until 2036 to connect a new wind or solar farm in some locations, leaving renewable energy developers unable to decarbonise electricity.
Introduction
As the UK moves towards its net zero goals, we’ll need to replace fossil fuels with clean energy, which means increasing electricity consumption by 2–3x. In this post, we’ll examine the impact this will have at a street level and in our homes, focusing on the increased electricity loads and the infrastructure upgrades required to support our net zero future.
Increased Electricity Loads in Homes
The two main drivers of increased electricity loads in our homes are electric vehicles (EVs) and electric space and water heating (including heat pumps), which cause a 50% and 100% increase in electricity consumption, respectively. To accommodate this increased domestic load, we’ll need to upgrade all our low voltage (LV) transformers to handle the additional 150% peak load. Upgrading the entire country’s infrastructure will cost around £200 billion, with new transformers costing £50k each and cables costing £200 per meter.
The Challenge of Peak Load
A significant issue with our current grid infrastructure is that it’s built for peak load, even though average load is considerably lower. A well-known solution to this problem is “peak shaving,” “flexibility,” or “load shifting.” This involves changing the time of day that people consume electricity to reduce peak demand. For example, EVs might not be able to charge during peak hours (5–8pm) without paying a premium, and home heating systems might have to reduce their output during these times.
By encouraging load shifting, we could potentially avoid a peak load spike and make better use of our existing infrastructure. This might involve using thermal batteries charged during sunny afternoons or having the grid adapt dynamically to sudden changes in electricity demand.
Conclusion
Adapting our consumption patterns to align with grid constraints can be a powerful strategy to manage increased electricity demand as we transition to a net zero future. By embracing load shifting and investing in innovative solutions like thermal batteries, we can make better use of our existing infrastructure and save money on costly upgrades. However, it’s essential to ensure the affordability of these solutions and prevent potential abuse of the system to ensure the successful implementation of these strategies.
Code:
Code has been published on a github repository here: https://github.com/jerrysam/LV-Feeder-Data-Analysis
I know there are better ways to build this, but when this code is disposable you’re allowed to hack. So long as it’s easy to read and understand.
